HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[snapiti]

I agree sentiment is a controlling factor on any share, but so is the macro environment.
Currently the macro environment is terrible as many struggle due to the cost of living, economy is slowing and unemployment is on the rise so I disagree with anyone who thinks we are at the bottom of the economic cycle.
Some say covid showed what a robust company HGH is, I call BS on that one as most got hand outs from the government to help make ends meet and poeple had less to spend their money on (stuck at home) as well as super cheap mortgage rates. In reality the covid lolly scramble was a tail wind for finance companies.
Not sure where the SP will bottom but one has to question why buy, plenty of reasons to sell, I will grab my allotment of cap raise @ $1 but that is all I will hold   

[snapiti]

Interesting read in the herald this morning from chief forecaster at Informetric reckons we got a bad 12 months ahead......I agree

[lorraina]

Just as well HGH are in "growth mode" in Australia..

[BlackPeter]

Interesting read in the herald this morning from chief forecaster at Informetric reckons we got a bad 12 months ahead......I agree

Lets face it - there is no analyst who gets the future more often right than his (or her) statistical random share. So - quite pointless to throw  forecasts around. I guess nobody can predict when the next pandemic hits, nobody can predict when WW3 starts (and who is participating), nobody can predict which octogenarian will run  the US in a couple of years and how braindead his policies will be, nobody can predict the growing conditions for the coming season here or anywhere else and whether the price for oil will go up or down. They say that predicting the movement of already just 3 bodies interacting with each other is already nearly impossible. Predicting the movements of an in practical terms infinite number of bodies interacting with each other is.

NOBODY can predict the future!

I notice a number of our European shares (and not just the arms manufacturers) are doing quite well. What about the market is always right?

So - this turns the 12 months misery forecast into just another possible scenario based on assumptions which may be right or wrong. But sure, lets assume it eventuates - hey, it might.  Wouldn't this be good for the Reverse Mortgage business? More and more oldies who own their home but needing some money to supplement their lifestyle?

[LoungeLizard]

Lets face it - there is no analyst who gets the future more often right than his (or her) statistical random share. So - quite pointless to throw  forecasts around. I guess nobody can predict when the next pandemic hits, nobody can predict when WW3 starts (and who is participating), nobody can predict which octogenarian will run  the US in a couple of years and how braindead his policies will be, nobody can predict the growing conditions for the coming season here or anybody else and whether the price for oil will go up or down.

NOBODY can predict the future!

I notice a number of our European shares (and not just the arms manufacturers) are doing quite well. What about the market is always right?

So - this turns the 12 months misery forecast into just another possible scenario based on assumptions which may be right or wrong. But sure, lets assume it eventuates - hey, it might.  Wouldn't this be good for the Reverse Mortgage business? More and more oldies who own their home but needing some money to supplement their lifestyle?

No-one can predict completely random events, but outcomes based on scientific or economic data  - eg a future of increasingly adverse climate events - can be reliably predicted. It's not all crystal ball stuff. Whether people want to believe those forecasts is another matter.

[snapiti]

]
being able to see all the dots makes it easier to join them to form a picture.....of course much harder to see all the dots when one suffers from tunnel vision

[BlackPeter]

No-one can predict completely random events, but outcomes based on scientific or economic data  - eg a future of increasingly adverse climate events - can be reliably predicted. It's not all crystal ball stuff. Whether people want to believe those forecasts is another matter.

Not wanting to rain on your parade ... but even when we accept e.g. the climate change forecasts which clearly spell out an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, than nobody can predict, whether they will happen in the coming growing season ... and how they will impact on the harvest in some particular place.

So - economic analysis is sometimes good to understand the past, and it can help as well to create a better framework for the future, but economic forecasts are as useless as anybody else forecast.

Just take the last ten years of economic forecasts from your favorite economist and check how often they got it right and how often they got it wrong. I have not yet seen anybody whose forecasts managed to be (given a statistically relevant sample) better than random distribution would give them ... and yes, I did some work in this area. Doe not say analysts are inept, it just says that it is not possible to predict the future of a chaotic system.

What you can do is trying to isolate individual parts of the system and describe what happens with them based on the established rules of physics (if you studied thermodynamics, you might know what I mean). However - this only works as long as you can neglect all external impacts on your system, which is typically only true for a very short time (like, you can predict the weather tomorrow, but not the weather in 2 weeks).

Hint: Both the weather as well as economies are chaotic systems, but economies are still more difficult to predict , given that their elements change their behaviour dependent on the information they get from the system;

[LoungeLizard]

Not wanting to rain on your parade ... but even when we accept e.g. the climate change forecasts which clearly spell out an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, than nobody can predict, whether they will happen in the coming growing season ... and how they will impact on the harvest in some particular place.

So - economic analysis is sometimes good to understand the past, and it can help as well to create a better framework for the future, but economic forecasts are as useless as anybody else forecast.

Just take the last ten years of economic forecasts from your favorite economist and check how often they got it right and how often they got it wrong. I have not yet seen anybody whose forecasts managed to be (given a statistically relevant sample) better than random distribution would give them ... and yes, I did some work in this area. Doe not say analysts are inept, it just says that it is not possible to predict the future of a chaotic system.

What you can do is trying to isolate individual parts of the system and describe what happens with them based on the established rules of physics (if you studied thermodynamics, you might know what I mean). However - this only works as long as you can neglect all external impacts on your system, which is typically only true for a very short time (like, you can predict the weather tomorrow, but not the weather in 2 weeks).

Hint: Both the weather as well as economies are chaotic systems, but economies are still more difficult to predict , given that their elements change their behaviour dependent on the information they get from the system;

Respectively, I would have to disagree, and like you this my area. My degree is in economics not accounting, so I'm biased in valuing historical, statistical and trend analysis.
 
You don't have to know exactly when something is going to happen, you just have to know that, over time, the likelihood is that it will. Climate scientists say that if we continue to burn fossil fuels at the rate we are then the 1.5 celsius increase over global average temperature will happen. Cause and effect. They don't say exactly when and the effect on global regions will differ, but it will happen and globally all will suffer. Sticking you head of the window and saying, well it hasn't happened today - again - so they are wrong - again -  is dangerous as it leads to no-one believing anything experts say.

As far as investing goes, we play the odds, knowing that one can get all the facts straight but be proved wrong by the market. But over time, if you are consistent and apply first principles you will come out ahead over those who take an ad hoc, seat of their pants approach. And in investing, time counts. You can go to the casino and put money down on the equal number of red or black numbers, but the bank doesn't pay out on the zero. Over time the bank wins.

But, there's more than one way to make money in investing and whatever works, works. One can go with instinct honed over time, or on forecasting and data gathering. Ideally, a bit of both is best  

[Red Baron]

So - quite pointless to throw forecasts around. I guess nobody can predict when the next pandemic hits, nobody can predict when WW3 starts (and who is participating),

There eez no need to predict ze ztart of Vorld Var Three.  Because eet has already ztarted,   Eet is just that zhis man 'Vlad' eez ztill negotiating ze 'naming rights'.

RB

[Waltzing]

LL its great that with economic reason and maths one can come out ahead but we keep getting whacked by things like world wide obliteration scale events which means GOLD should be in every portfolio but its not...

GOLD ... who would have though....

better than money, honey and home...

[Pierre]

The retail offer was 81% subscribed. Those who applied for extra shares got 'em all. The underwriter left holding the baby for 15 million shares. Probably a bit of selling pressure to come over the next week or so.

[Basil]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430075
Extract 

The approximately 15 million New Shares not taken up under the Retail Entitlement Offer have been allocated to the underwriter and/or to sub-underwriters procured by the underwriter, including institutional investors who participated in the Placement and wished to purchase more shares.

[LoungeLizard]

81% retail take-up is a bit underwhelming I feel. How many shares the underwriters were forced to take up we don't know, but I suspect they will be dumped in the weeks to come.

[Pierre]

81% retail take-up is a bit underwhelming I feel. How many shares the underwriters were forced to take up we don't know, but I suspect they will be dumped in the weeks to come.

See post #1106.

[entrep]

81% retail take-up is a bit underwhelming I feel. How many shares the underwriters were forced to take up we don't know, but I suspect they will be dumped in the weeks to come.

They can dump them tomorrow for a free 5% in addition to their fees.