HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[snapiti]

well one can expect a bit of selling coming up and buyers being somewhat exhausted.......me thinks you will be able to buy as many as you like on the open market for $1 soon

[SCOTTY]

NZX closed tomorrow - ANZAC day.

[Red Baron]

NZX closed tomorrow - ANZAC day.

Ah vell, I guess HGH zhareholders who 'vant out tomorrow' vill just have to trade their Heartland zhares on ze ASX then.

RB

[Clearasmud]

Ah vell, I guess HGH zhareholders who 'vant out tomorrow' vill just have to trade their Heartland zhares on ze ASX then.

RB

Ze ASX is closed also.

[Azz]

We need Anzac Day - it's the only thing that reminds the Aussies we're their mates. And therefore the defense of NZ is tied directly to this single day every year. Get out and pay your respects!

[Clearasmud]

We need Anzac Day - it's the only thing that reminds the Aussies we're their mates. And therefore the defense of NZ is tied directly to this single day every year. Get out and pay your respects!

Good point.
I'm out tomorrow at dawn.

[Red Baron]

Ze ASX is closed also.

Vot! On ANZAC day?  who vould have thought

Zeriously though, eet eez right ve take thees day to commemorate ze sacrifices past generations have made during vartime, especially those preserved as eternally young.   Eet eez especially poignant vor a military man zuch as myself to remember ze sacrifices made by both zides by ze sailors, soldiers and airmen who all believed they were vighting vor their own commander's greater good.  And yes I even include my arch nemesis Herr von Schnoopy een zhat respect leest!

Zo let thees be a day of remembrance.   Vor tomorrow both zides vill be back plotting how to bring to an end thees now 110 year old 'Great Var.'

RB

[Basil]

Had five Harvard aircraft in formation fly directly overhead our house this morning.  Was very loud and very cool.

I think if the underwriter lets some shares go at cost that's something for people to consider. If it falls back as low as, say 90 cents as some appear to think might happen, those with an eye to the future will realize that's only ~ 6 times average analyst forecast FY26 eps and might think about whether that's something of real opportunity to take advantage of.    I've got plenty of dry powder for such a possible opportunity.

[Plata]

I think that HGH in the 0.90-0.95 range is pretty compelling even with the risk here. I am expecting a low of mid 90s in the coming months, waiting for that to dip my toe back in. I can see the appeal of getting in now though (I'm more ETF focused with my allocation these days). So glad I sold out at the last capital raise.

[snapiti]

Here is my take, upon the ann of the CEO leaving and the cap raise at $1 and cutting of the divi as well as thinking this would compound the already long term weak sentiment towards the stock, I choose to sell, that looks like a wise decision as I sold at $1.14, however I did apply for my allocation of shares plus 100% more, so now hold a total of 25000 shares @ $1 ave thanks to the cap raise. I am reasonably comfortable at the purchase price as it is a very modest holding compared to what I did own.
Going forward I think the current CEO stepping aside is a good thing as he is obviously not up for the challenges ahead.
The cutting of the dividend annoys me and I believe is one of the main reason why the SP is falling further and there was a lack lustre interest from retail investors in the cap raise.
I disagree that we are at the bottom of the economic cycle as I think we have a sustained period of weakness ahead (12 months) as the reserve bank keeps the pressure on to tame inflation.
I find having a diverse range of friends helps one more acutely understand the financial pressures many are experiencing.
Now in the short term, given the current sentiment, macro environment, lower dividend and overhang of shares from the cap raise I am confident one will be able to get as many shares one would like at $1 soon and suspect picking up shares in the 90's is highly likely.
Long term prospects now rest on the success of the challenger bank in Aus, in saying that if they can return to say a 70% payout of divi and term deposits rates lower you will see some buying from divi hunters...thats a lot of if's though.
I do think a SP of $1 offers good value provided the current business does not get to beat up by the macro environment and at this level the SP certainly does not price in any value of challenger bank so a bit of risk versus reward on offer         

[LoungeLizard]

Here is my take, upon the ann of the CEO leaving and the cap raise at $1 and cutting of the divi as well as thinking this would compound the already long term weak sentiment towards the stock, I choose to sell, that looks like a wise decision as I sold at $1.14, however I did apply for my allocation of shares plus 100% more, so now hold a total of 25000 shares @ $1 ave thanks to the cap raise. I am reasonably comfortable at the purchase price as it is a very modest holding compared to what I did own.
Going forward I think the current CEO stepping aside is a good thing as he is obviously not up for the challenges ahead.
The cutting of the dividend annoys me and I believe is one of the main reason why the SP is falling further and there was a lack lustre interest from retail investors in the cap raise.
I disagree that we are at the bottom of the economic cycle as I think we have a sustained period of weakness ahead (12 months) as the reserve bank keeps the pressure on to tame inflation.
I find having a diverse range of friends helps one more acutely understand the financial pressures many are experiencing.
Now in the short term, given the current sentiment, macro environment, lower dividend and overhang of shares from the cap raise I am confident one will be able to get as many shares one would like at $1 soon and suspect picking up shares in the 90's is highly likely.
Long term prospects now rest on the success of the challenger bank in Aus, in saying that if they can return to say a 70% payout of divi and term deposits rates lower you will see some buying from divi hunters...thats a lot of if's though.
I do think a SP of $1 offers good value provided the current business does not get to beat up by the macro environment and at this level the SP certainly does not price in any value of challenger bank so a bit of risk versus reward on offer         

Well said, and you're probably right - $1 is just around the corner, and could drop lower.

As you say, HGH are - and have been for sometime - out of favour with the market. Partly because of the macro economic picture but also I think because the penny finally dropped with investors that there would never be any sustained growth in the SP (it's declined 25% in the past 5 years) because the frequent capital raises kept under-cutting any gains that had been made in the interim. One risk with this stock is that there will be another CR in order to fund the reverse equity business and Challenger capital requirements. That risk is compounded now, because, unlike before, there won't be a particularly good yield to compensate for it.

Having said that, $1 could be point in which HGH becomes a tolerable punt, as long as investors recognise that it is a punt. Personally, I will stick to my strategy - which has helped me again in not jumping in too soon - of waiting for the green shoots to appear. Going against the TA is, as they say,  like bringing a knife to a gun fight.

I don't think either, that the end of year report will be a good one - just a hunch. NP, I feel, could drop again, the divvy will be cut for sure, and who knows, more Challenger provisions might be needed. If that's the case the market will be primed to respond very badly. So, still waiting and watching.    

[snapiti]

Well said, and you're probably right - $1 is just around the corner, and could drop lower.

As you say, HGH are - and have been for sometime - out of favour with the market. Partly because of the macro economic picture but also I think because the penny finally dropped with investors that there would never be any sustained growth in the SP (it's declined 25% in the past 5 years) because the frequent capital raises kept under-cutting any gains that had been made in the interim. One risk with this stock is that there will be another CR in order to fund the reverse equity business and Challenger capital requirements. That risk is compounded now, because, unlike before, there won't be a particularly good yield to compensate for it.

Having said that, $1 could be point in which HGH becomes a tolerable punt, as long as investors recognise that it is a punt. Personally, I will stick to my strategy - which has helped me again in not jumping in too soon - of waiting for the green shoots to appear. Going against the TA is, as they say,  like bringing a knife to a gun fight.

I don't think either, that the end of year report will be a good one - just a hunch. NP, I feel, could drop again, the divvy will be cut for sure, and who knows, more Challenger provisions might be needed. If that's the case the market will be primed to respond very badly. So, still waiting and watching.    

fairly confident I am right, but we all get it wrong sometimes.....even super smart savy beagles

[BlackPeter]

Well said, and you're probably right - $1 is just around the corner, and could drop lower.

well one can expect a bit of selling coming up and buyers being somewhat exhausted.......me thinks you will be able to buy as many as you like on the open market for $1 soon

Still waiting - when do you experts think we get there ??

[LoungeLizard]

Probably too early to tell where this is going, but maybe the rose tinted glasses might have to come off. If a cap raise comes in at this level then the discounting will push the SP towards $1. And those still at the table will face the same option as they did 18 months ago. Raise their stakes and hope for the best or fold and cut their losses. The cap raise is the real over-hang and until that is resolved the SP will stay in the doldrums.

Well, I wrote the above 6 weeks ago, yapping on, until people got well and truly fed up,  about not to buy because of the looming cap-raise and how that would decimate the share price (again). And here we are at $1.03.
It may go under $1 in the next week or so, but the real test will be the end of year report. I don't see that being a good one and that may be when the SP takes its next step down the ladder. The risk outweighs the reward currently, in my view, but I can see why people might want to take a punt.   

[snapiti]

Still waiting - when do you experts think we get there ??

sooner rather than later me thinks.....lots of overhang shares from the cap raise to be sold for a quick profit and to take risk off the table