HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Basil]

Taking the eye of the ball and all those distractions have lead to this eps trend (Reported NPAT and weighted number of shares)

F20, 12.5 cents
F21. 14.9 cents
F22. 16.1 cents
F23. 14.0 cents
F24  12.3 cents (last guidance)  Average of Craigs and FB agree
FY25 11.8 cents
FY26 14.3 cents, (note, that's still less than 5 years earlier in FY21

And unless F25 MPAT in $ terms is >25% up on F24 the downward trend will continue

Hardly inspiring eh ...no wonder share price where it is.

Obviously need a new CEO whose totally focused on executing the growth strategy ...no more taking the eye of the ball ....and hopefully like the Crusaders are thinking today things can't get any worse

Added some content in blue with average of Forsyth Barr and Craigs eps forecasts. HGH really not going to get any meaningful traction until FY27 and into FY28 but for what its worth based on FY26 average broker estimates of eps and dps of 14.3 cps and 8.75 cps respectively it's on a FY26 forecast PE of 7.83 and gross yield assuming full imputation credits of 10.85% @ a share price of $1.12

Have to agree with your sentiment I highlighted in purple.  It's going to take quite a while just to get back to the previous capital raise price of $1.80 and might not see north of $2 until FY28.  Who's up for the "Challange", (you see what I did there) of buying in gloom and having lots of patience to wait for sunnier days ahead.  On an ex dividend and cum entitlement basis I am only a few cents underwater at present and up for the challenge of holding a reasonable quantity of this mutt in the years ahead.  This dog definitely has a pretty serious flea infestation but with care and lots of flea treatment it should hopefully come right.

[BlackPeter]

How reliable are Dan's forecasts.?

I recon this was winners point ;

[LoungeLizard]

Evening all.

 We'll start with this high pressure system that's developing over the heartland of New Zealand tonight. We can see here this cold front coming through, bringing with it a lot of rain and unfortunately that's likely to leave a lot of residents underwater. Luckily, the Met office says that the system will be short-lived and things should return to normal in about three years.

There's also this strong wind pattern coming from the north, which doesn't help, but I'm told that it won't last and is likely to move on to other areas in about two weeks.

Now, I'm also told that one bank has set up a fund to help with the damage that the system is likely to cause. Not for residents of course - they can go to hell, ha ha! - but just to ensure that executive bonuses can be paid in this time of need. And to all those executive who have already pre-ordered the Audi A4 E-tron - our hopes and prayers go out to you.

Now, back to the news. Oh, sorry - there is none. 

[Bob50]

Heartland was on the Jarden Directs weekly clients top 10 buys for at least a couple of weeks prior to the capital raise announcement.
It certainly lost popularity since-it's now one of their top 10 sells for last week.

[Basil]

Probably selling some to buy them back under the capital raise at $1

[Teitei]

Heartland was on the Jarden Directs weekly clients top 10 buys for at least a couple of weeks prior to the capital raise announcement.
It certainly lost popularity since-it's now one of their top 10 sells for last week.

Hardly surprising when you consider that many retail investors view HGH as a dividend yield investment and the CR will require many such 'dividend' investors to sell some of their shares to pick up their entitlements.

Remember that this CR is non-renounceable so any shareholder not taking up their entitlement will receive zero value for being diluted.

Certainly not expecting any 'informed' retail investors to be buying in the face of the 131m shares to be issued to institutions today (they can sell from today) and retail shareholders only have this week to take up their entitlements.

[snapiti]

I wonder if the underwriters are propping up the SP ahead of retail offer....sold my shares but still illegible for cap raise.....will apply but can see some further weakness in SP given the CEO leaving, the uncertainty of Aus investment and divi being cut

[Untamed]

Surprised nobody has mentioned this today:

https://www.heartland.co.nz/about-us/news/heartland-ceo-jeff-greenslade-announces-retirement

Oops, I see snapiti did. My bad.

[LoungeLizard]

Yep, it was announced to the NZX at the same time that Challenger was given its banking licence. I thought it was peculiar - and took it to be a bad sign - that the driving force behind the pivot to OZ would bail just as they were given the green light. Was he suffering from buyers regret? Time will tell  

[lorraina]

More likely "JOB DONE".

[LoungeLizard]

I said at the time, getting the banking licence was the easy part. Far harder is to make it profitable and for investors to see a return on their investment. So far the consequences of Jeff's decision has been a cut in dividends and the SP tanking, again, as a result of yet another capital raise. Job done? I really don't think so.

[snapiti]

no worries about SP for the next few days, underwriters will support at current levels to get the retail investors onboard with cap raise, after that maybe interesting times though. 

[LoungeLizard]

no worries about SP for the next few days, underwriters will support at current levels to get the retail investors onboard with cap raise, after that maybe interesting times though. 

Agreed. In the last CR, the SP went down to the SPP price of $1.80 not long after all the entitlements had been taken up. Trouble is it went on a real slide after that. Think about that - people snapped up shares at $1.80 saying that they had got a bargain and it wouldn't go any lower. 18 months later we are talking about $1!

Sub-$1 is a possibility once the dust has settled. Might be a buy at that level, hard to say.

[Waltzing]

chart ....

W J ONeil...  needs to form a BOTTOM ....  thats what he would say...

[mike2023]

Agreed. In the last CR, the SP went down to the SPP price of $1.80 not long after all the entitlements had been taken up. Trouble is it went on a real slide after that. Think about that - people snapped up shares at $1.80 saying that they had got a bargain and it wouldn't go any lower. 18 months later we are talking about $1!

Sub-$1 is a possibility once the dust has settled. Might be a buy at that level, hard to say.

After the last CR it briefly went higher than the 1.80 and that is probably where anyone who had supported the share exited. The price movements on HGH have been questionable of late. Post div it rose quickly off the mid teens which it was mentioned indicated a raise in the pipeline. It will be nice to watch what happens this time. I feel with the existing AUS business it has a foundation for a good future but sentiment will drive the share for a while I think. Id like to pick a few up around 90 cents but who knows.