HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[winner (n)]

How reliable are Dan's forecasts.?

Lots of arm waving and gesticulating and gets excited about all the upcoming doom and gloom and generally forecasts not that reliable.

When was last time Dan said tomorrow is going to be sunny and fine .....and if he did he'd probably say we are going to die from heat stroke ...in a cheery way

[Basil]

Lots of arm waving and gesticulating and gets excited about all the upcoming doom and gloom and generally forecasts not that reliable.

When was last time Dan said tomorrow is going to be sunny and fine .....and if he did he'd probably say we are going to die from heat stroke ...in a cheery way

My goodness, have we "outed" some reptile's day job ?

Anyway, markets closed and its the weekend so got to thinking....and speaking of arm waving, gesticulation and excitement, you a fan of going to greyhound racing meetings and having a flutter ?   I imagine that's a lot of fun. never been to the dog's but have to some horse race meetings and that can be exciting.

Suppose like with horses, a good tactic is to review previous form, look for a favorable draw and try and pick the dog with the least flea's.
You could argue Greg Tomlinson has a couple of dog's both with poor recent form, OCA and HGH.  Hope he has another $14m on standby in case the other one needs a trip to the vet.

Anyway...got thinking this morning, is it a coincidence that both his dog's are not performing well, both got nonperforming divisions they want to sell, both looking for a new CEO, both developing a keen obsession with all things ESG.  Gosh is our man Greg part of the problem, surely not ?

Watched Wall Street the other day again...took note of the part where Gordon Gekko tells Bud Fox, "pick the dog with the least flea's"...got to pondering how I ended up picking both his dog's and which of his dog's has the least flea's ? 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgPzYc0drv8

[lorraina]

Google;Greg Tomlinson net worth.
Approx. $520 million
Approx. $520 million See all profiles, rankings and feature articles on The NBR List 2023 home page. When it comes to clinching big deals, Christchurch businessman Greg Tomlinson is in a class of his own following a string of $100 million-plus acquisitions .
I did read somewhere his net worth is now $750mil.
Choosing a new CEO.Well he managed to attract ex Silver Fern Farms outstanding CEO,Simon Limmer, to his Indevin Wine business,the biggest.grower and producer of NZ wine.
Old saying "Follow the money."

[Basil]

Old saying "Follow the money."

A lot of people did exactly that when he bought up large at OCA @ $1.40
Maybe just a coincidence OCA and HGH share prices are both in the dog house.

[lorraina]

A lot of people did exactly that when he bought up large at OCA @ $1.40
Maybe just a coincidence OCA and HGH share prices are both in the dog house.

He has made his wealth by being a long term investor.
Most probably has a longer attention span than most Sharetraders or Sharetalkers..

[Basil]

He has made his wealth by being a long term investor.
Most probably has a longer attention span than most Sharetraders or Sharetalkers..

Definitely a lesson there.  Beagle's have a very short attention span...if there's no food in close proximity, they lose interest lol
All good with HGH....been to some dog obedience classes and should be good to hold until the magic 2028.

[winner (n)]

Apparently Heartland have $569m of non-performing legacy assets. Jeff said
"Our results are full of legacies, underlyings, one-offs, etc, etc, or accounting issues," and went on to call them 'distractions'.

Those 'distractions' showed negative compound growth of 14.2% since the 2020 financial year.

'Distractions' seem an apt description ....just shows that Jeff took his eye of the ball and seemed to be hoping that they would be all go away and not be an issue.

Seems these issues not going to go away quickly as they are now going to report things in three segments - NZ, Australia and a new division called 'Distractions'

Surely an indictment on how Heartland has been managed the last few years.

Shouldn't say it but these 'legacies' make Jeff and Heartland seem like Ross Taylor and Fletchers. That's pretty damning etc....and Jeff has done a Ross Taylor and said he's going ...leaving it some new person to sort out his mess

[Mousehold]

How reliable are Dan's forecasts.?

On the plus side Dan the weatherman seems to know what he's talking about.The others come across as nothing more that autocue readers.

[lorraina]

Apparently Heartland have $569m of non-performing legacy assets. Jeff said
"Our results are full of legacies, underlyings, one-offs, etc, etc, or accounting issues," and went on to call them 'distractions'.

Those 'distractions' showed negative compound growth of 14.2% since the 2020 financial year.

'Distractions' seem an apt description ....just shows that Jeff took his eye of the ball and seemed to be hoping that they would be all go away and not be an issue.

Seems these issues not going to go away quickly as they are now going to report things in three segments - NZ, Australia and a new division called 'Distractions'

Surely an indictment on how Heartland has been managed the last few years.

Shouldn't say it but these 'legacies' make Jeff and Heartland seem like Ross Taylor and Fletchers. That's pretty damning etc....and Jeff has done a Ross Taylor and said he's going ...leaving it some new person to sort out his mess

These distractions are of major concern as is the size of them.
Management certainly took their eye off the ball.
The problem has been identified,and now needs close attention.
When HGH was formed their were legacy issues that they successfully worked through.
Need to do the same with the current ones.
Easy to lend money, but to stay in business you need to have it repaid,and to be profitable you need to receive the interest payments.

[Basil]

Hope the new CEO sees Jeff's obsession with all things ESG as another distraction that needs to be sin binned.

[winner (n)]

Hope the new CEO sees Jeff's obsession with all things ESG as another distraction that needs to be sin binned.

Hope they don't put Chris Flood in .....he's been around too long and tainted with the recent performance ...another one whose taken the eye of the ball.

[lorraina]

I disagree.
Think he has done a great job organising Australian opportunities.Certainly has had his eye on the ball over there.
Would make a good replacement for Jeff.

[winner (n)]

Taking the eye of the ball and all those distractions have lead to this eps trend (Reported NPAT and weighted number of shares)

F20, 12.5 cents
F21. 14.9 cents
F22. 16.1 cents
F23. 14.0 cents
F24  12.3 cents (last guidance)

And unless F25 MPAT in $ terms is >25% up on F24 the downward trend will continue

Hardly inspiring eh ...no wonder share price where it is.

Obviously need a new CEO whose totally focused on executing the growth strategy ...no more taking the eye of the ball ....and hopefully like the Crusaders are thinking today things can't get any worse

[winner (n)]

I disagree.
Think he has done a great job organising Australian opportunities.Certainly has had his eye on the ball over there.
Would make a good replacement for Jeff.

Leave him over there so he can focus on making it happen ...and let new eyes oversee the big picture

[KW]

Sorry, I dont have access to the full article as its paywalled

https://justthebusinessjennyruth.substack.com/p/heartland-says-its-targetsd-arent
Analysts are clearly unconvinced that Heartland is going to achieve its goals for the 2028 financial year.