Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

Since 2014 the west has been attacked directly by Russia and now Troops are on the battle field are from more and more countries...

Is North Korea now a combatant.

Are we at the cross roads...

https://www.politico.eu/article/north-korean-soldiers-are-fighting-for-putin-in-ukraine-zelenskyy-says/

is the world of the social liberals dead .. 

[Davexl]

Weekend reading:

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies recently published a comprehensive paper 'The Global Impact of the 2024 US Presidential Election' that assesses the various implications of the election result for Europe, Africa, Asia, the Middle East and the Americas. The report notes that many are viewing this election as a 'make or break moment' for the global economy, trade, geopolitics, and international conventions, concluding that "there could not be a more consequential moment for the US to be choosing its next leader."

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-09/240926_Cha_Global_Impact.pdf?VersionId=lgqOdzLFxo2YIcraos_a35l9LRyxfOZH

[Waltzing]

well is it 1939 ?

China and Russia just signed a new agreement?

isnt this the start of the new era of axis of evil?

NK now in the field and more in training in russia...

Is this not China signing on to the WAR in Ukraine...

[Waltzing]

Ok your all complaining about your infrus = structure ....

right? but your water comes out of a tap not your stove right and your other amenities dont explode very often...

you might enjoy this....

Hes a retired US Nuclear Vissile man who chats about the state of the world wars...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bmDXNry9Qo

[Waltzing]

South Korea talks about sending personal to Kiev....

your kidding .....
 
putler says new world order saying forming or is it all just bluff stuff..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/02/russia-ukraine-war-listen-daily-podcast/

[Waltzing]

Is Elon Musk public enemy number one and is he actually in communication with the new hilter secretly..

that would breach his security clearance ...

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/video/wsj-trump-ally-musk-in-regular-contact-with-putin

[Waltzing]

The pacific is being opened up again by the US military...

The old base at Tinian is being reopened ... the island chain air fields are being redeveloped into operations.

Here comes the us...Will we see the US moving more personal back to Australia...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW1TYDVBSmI

here we go again....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bck_CHmtWPI

[Waltzing]

Nuclear threat imminent ....  stop watches are running ....

Bunker bunker bunker...

or you can always go out to your concrete gardening shed...built in the 1970's  .... we got one...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Fjxf9W8Nx8

[Waltzing]

we may need to take Conrads the heart of darkness  off the book shelf ... or is western civisilation going to be saved..

its all on the line in the next 48 hours..

are you ready for a new world dis order?

 The german says a Finish solution is looking good...

just how out of touch is he?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HblPucwN-m0

[Waltzing]

Dark days may be coming ...

The era of the dictator is only just starting unless a miracles appears in the next 4 years...

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2024-election-trump-harris/index.html

[BlackPeter]

Dark days may be coming ...

The era of the dictator is only just starting unless a miracles appears in the next 4 years...

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/2024-election-trump-harris/index.html

The Fourth Turning by Strauss and Howe describes quite well the secular cycles of history.

https://www.amazon.com.au/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy/dp/0767900464/ref=asc_df_0767900464/?gad_source=1&hvadid=675350116278&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl&hvlocint&hvlocphy=9118813&hvnetw=g&hvpone&hvpos&hvptwo&hvqmt&hvrand=16882320552379956226&hvtargid=pla-434010102866&language=en_AU&linkCode=df0&mcid=f5141c306035341a8195e58e4a0aae1d&psc=1&tag=nzgoshpadde-22

Currently we are in the "winter" - phase of history, which means extreme polarisation of societies and countries looking inwards instead of working together to solve humanities problems on a global level. Last time we've been in a historical winter (1930ies/40ies) culminated into WWII - and the time before (late 1840ies to early 1860'ies) it featured unrest in many parts of Europe and the American Civil war.

I guess the good thing is that these periods never run forever - just think about how long Hitler's 1000 year empire lasted. So, yes, it well might turn into the era of dictators, but most of us probably have a good chance to see as well the end of this era.

What I expect in the near future is an extremely inward looking and isolationist America (actually, quite like the US prior to Pearl Harbour and WWII) not worrying anymore about its previous allies, and the Putin's and the Xi's of the world will run like crazy. What might come is another Pearl Harbour event for the US (dictators never get enough, no matter how much they have) and lots of blood spilled.

What will come is a new world order. The question is just who will run it? US clearly on the down path. China (which seemed to be next) has problems due to its population policies (they run out of young people), and so does Russia (for different reasons, but they do).

Who knows - it well might be India, Brazil and parts of Africa running the world affairs in another two decades or so. It might be the time of the dictators, but I assume that long term meritocracies (like Singapore) might prevail.

Anyway - we live in interesting times - but unless Europe gets its act together I suppose the time window for the Western civilisation to shape the future of this planet starts to close. Too many populists and not enough brains.

[Waltzing]

Time for europe to find its time in the sun.. can europe surprise us.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/02/russia-ukraine-war-listen-daily-podcast/

[Davexl]

What Trump presidency means for NZ's security | Q+A 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxI12-oJ8i8&ab_channel=Q%2BAwithJackTame

From the CSIS, selling the idea of NZ participating in AUKUS Pillar II. The need for New Zealand to make hard choices about China and SOON. Jack Tame presenting the opposite arguments.

Personally, feel that NZ has totally abdicated the necessary role of paying meaningly for Defence. It doesn't even achieve the new global minimum of 2% in a very very dangerous world situation.

Judith Collins needs to be put "On Notice" by the media and Winston Peters in my view.

Perhaps New Zealand IS broke and we are being lied to by our politicians about the true state of our economy

NZ is broken, naive and out of options to continue participating as a first world country.
Perhaps we should use our weak currency to do far more export consultancy between the first world countries and the global south eg the BRICS, at least they are growing fast.

Relying on mostly China alone is becoming extremely dangerous in my view and the US will put up tariff walls against its allies also. No where else to go...

[BlackPeter]

What Trump presidency means for NZ's security | Q+A 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxI12-oJ8i8&ab_channel=Q%2BAwithJackTame

From the CSIS, selling the idea of NZ participating in AUKUS Pillar II. The need for New Zealand to make hard choices about China and SOON. Jack Tame presenting the opposite arguments.

Personally, feel that NZ has totally abdicated the necessary role of paying meaningly for Defence. It doesn't even achieve the new global minimum of 2% in a very very dangerous world situation.

Judith Collins needs to be put "On Notice" by the media and Winston Peters in my view.

Perhaps New Zealand IS broke and we are being lied to by our politicians about the true state of our economy

NZ is broken, naive and out of options to continue participating as a first world country.
Perhaps we should use our weak currency to do far more export consultancy between the first world countries and the global south eg the BRICS, at least they are growing fast.

Relying on mostly China alone is becoming extremely dangerous in my view and the US will put up tariff walls against its allies also. No where else to go...

Interesting Interview - Charles Edel would be a good complement to the Trump team, but I suppose his competence and common sense would disqualify him for any job in Trumps team?  :

But yes, times will become tougher and more unpredictable. And no matter how things go I see basically three major options for NZ:

1) Keep our ridiculously low defence spending (1% of GDP) and allow China to take responsibility for our defence. I don't see that as desirable, but if our politicians keep ignoring our army, this is where we will get.

2) At least double our defence spending (to 2% of GDP) - this would give us options to either play some broker between the autocrats of the world or to align ourselves with the wanna-be and soon day one autocrat from the East Island.

3) Apply in Canberra to become part of the Commonwealth of Australia. I understand they have this option as part of their constitution. While this would not reduce our defence spending (I suppose we would need to pay taxes there as well, and they are currently from memory at 2.3% of GDP on defence spending), but it might give us a bit better backup in a world which gets more dangerous from US election to US election. 

Lets not forget - our Maoris who claim sovereignty anyway came from Taiwan which China claims as its very own - i.e. it would not be a too far stretch to imagine Chinas desire to protect their people (our tangata whenua) here as well. Putin clearly did show Xi the way with his desire to protect the Russian people in the Ukraine. Might is right and populism sucks.

So I guess, unless we want to invite China to protect us, we better find the money to increase our defence spending. Anything else would appear to be quite reckless.

BTW - just checked - Singapore (population similar to NZ and going an independent path between the Chinese Dragon and the US Grizzly) had in 2023 a GDP of 501 billion USD. Their defence budget 2024 is 15 billion USD (25 billion SGD) - i.e. they are already at 3 % of GDP - and hey, their army does have power and commands respect. It can be done.

[Waltzing]

well BP - thats funny... what is KIWILAND going to use as money... seas shells?

anyway its the end of western democracy as trump wont be stepping down in 4 years ...

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/politics/video/treene-trump-senate-leader-recess-appointment-digvid

it could be civil war in the US....

unless its a republican replacement ... TRUMP JR...a family affair...