Geopolitical Risk

[Davexl]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - Shock and awe: Xi Jinping needs to do more to pull China out of its spiral

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/shock-and-awe-xi-jinping-needs-to-do-more-to-pull-china-out-of-its-spiral-20240925-p5kd91.html?utm_content=opinion&list_name=2031_smh_busnews_am&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2024-10-01&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&instance=2024-10-01-07-56-AEST&jobid=30839243

[Waltzing]

its the new china .... its lying down....

[Waltzing]

Rialto Channel ...

Superpower...


Sean Penns Doco on ukraine and the Z man...

and what is IDF thinking hitting a Russian Airbase in Middle east...

It all getting very very unstable out there...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIcQTG_Xjuw

Oil not going down then...inflation pressure lurking...

It looking very volcanic ..

[BlackPeter]

Rialto Channel ...

Superpower...


Sean Penns Doco on ukraine and the Z man...

and what is IDF thinking hitting a Russian Airbase in Middle east...

It all getting very very unstable out there...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIcQTG_Xjuw

Oil not going down then...inflation pressure lurking...

It looking very volcanic ..

On the other hand - nice to see the Russians getting still more to chew, given that they seemed to have taken already a larger bite they can process with Ukraine alone.

Also thinking that every rocket Iran sends to Israel they can't sell to the Russians to attack Ukraine.

Who knows - Hitler lost because he opened too many fronts. Maybe Israel baiting Putler to do the same thing.

 

[Waltzing]

Yes Ukraine will be happy if the IDF starts hitting back into the Heart of Darkness.

J Conrad....

[Davexl]

Interesting comments also about Australia defending its Sea Lines of Communication...
Subtle dig at NZ needing to up its game, especially when looking to buy replacement General Purpose Frigates
in the upcoming joint purchase agreement eg NZs intentions within the upcoming Defence Capability Plan!

Why Australia wants NZ to beef up its military | Q+A 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRzuTT9H8r8&ab_channel=Q%2BAwithJackTame

[Shareguy]

Interesting comments also about Australia defending its Sea Lines of Communication...
Subtle dig at NZ needing to up its game, especially when looking to buy replacement General Purpose Frigates
in the upcoming joint purchase agreement eg NZs intentions within the upcoming Defence Capability Plan!

Why Australia wants NZ to beef up its military | Q+A 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRzuTT9H8r8&ab_channel=Q%2BAwithJackTame

Yes interesting programme. We now have one less ship to contribute after todays disaster.

[Waltzing]

no worries....

Team NZ will team up with Ukraine to develop a stealth under water Drone and a robot Waka .....


patrol cook straight and steward island and white island  BOP.... and North land...

They got it covered... now just need some ferries that work....

[BlackPeter]

no worries....

Team NZ will team up with Ukraine to develop a stealth under water Drone and a robot Waka .....


patrol cook straight and steward island and white island  BOP.... and North land...

They got it covered... now just need some ferries that work....

You forgot that we need less self sinking vessels ... but on the other hand - we might be a good match to the Chinese, they have self sinking subs as well ;

[Davexl]

Iran cannot set off a global oil crisis without hurting its biggest ally

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - Telegraph

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/iran-cannot-set-off-a-global-oil-crisis-without-hurting-its-biggest-ally-20241004-p5kg0x.html?utm_content=opinion&list_name=2031_smh_busnews_am&promote_channel=edmail&utm_campaign=business-am&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=2024-10-07&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&instance=2024-10-07-07-17-AEDT&jobid=30855046

[Waltzing]

If they arnt trying to sell the oil now then obviously they dont see the electric vehicles taking over anytime soon...

plenty of time to sell oil.. decades of time.

[Waltzing]

From the sun flower country. An English Man abroad .... its 1938...

A Psychopath has stolen a country and now is hell bent on war ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1G7ckaNJho

The west is losing ...

[Davexl]

New Zealand Navy Hydrographic Ship HMNZS Manawanui Sinks Near Samoa - USNI news

https://news.usni.org/2024/10/06/new-zealand-navy-hydrographic-ship-hmnzs-manawanu-sinks-near-samoa?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=2b1fd9620a

Excerpt:
"The loss of Manawanui has reduced the RNZN fleet to eight ships and added to fleet availability issues. The RNZN have laid up three ships, offshore patrol vessels HMNZS Otago (P148) and HMNZS Wellington (P55), and inshore patrol vessels HMNZS Hawea (P3571), due to a lack of personnel to crew the ships. Frigate HMNZS Te Mana (F111) is in the midst of an extended maintenance period which includes upgrades to its communication systems, leaving now only four ships on operational status – frigate HMNZS Te Kaha (F77), multi-role vessel HMNZS Canterbury (L421), fleet oiler HMNZS Aotearoa (A11) and inshore patrol vessel HMNZS Taupo (P3570)."

What a sick joke our Defence forces have become - this isn't funny any more, now we are shamed and publicly embarrassed.
A Navy with only 2 Frigates and 2 offshore patrol vessels insufficiently manned.
An Airforce with no strike wing and long range missiles, yes we have the P8s and the SuperHercs
(after 60 years!)
An Army severely short of personnel and equipment.
And none of them sufficiently well-housed and paid competitively vs the private sector in the middle of the most dangerous strategic environment since WW-II.
Great - can't end well...
A Minister of No Defence, running down the Science & Technology sector cutting budgets left right and centre!
Thanks Minister Collins. Still awaiting our Defence Capability Plan!

[Davexl]

'Extreme importance': What's at stake for NZ with Luxon in Laos

https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350443758/extreme-importance-whats-stake-nz-luxon-laos

Adding to the Sea lines of communication concerns of the Aussies - (see above)

Excerpt:
The US election will be held in less than a month, and will either see the return of President Donald Trump or the promotion of Vice President Kamala Harris.

The other big challenge, which New Zealand could influence, was around maritime safety. The South China Sea and other waters on the east of Asia have become hotly contested geopolitical sites. If disputes escalate, then Khoo said there was potential that these seas could close to trade ships.

At the end of September, the New Zealand navy joined with the Australian and Japanese armed forces to sail through the Taiwan Strait. It was the first time in seven years that the New Zealand navy had patrolled that area, and its visit was of great political significance.

Xiaoming Huang, a Victoria University professor of international relations, agreed that marine security was a major issue for New Zealand - and one where this country could show its commitment to the region.

"This is a very volatile international environment," Huang said.

For New Zealand, but also every trading nation, he said security of the sea would be of "extreme importance".

[Davexl]

Close to the end of the video, Judith Collins is refreshingly honest about the current state of our Navy in particular (compared to 35-years ago), and the need to finance new frigates among other items in the upcoming Defence Capability Plan.

Proof will be in the level of ACTUAL capital spend on Defence, whether it will satisfy the Aussis to lower the cost per General Purpose Frigate (3 or 4 required in NZ), and whether it will satisfy the likes of Donald trump (if he heaven forbids gets in) and his demand for countries to stop freeloading on the US for Defence coverage in the Indo-Pacific & elsewhere...

ie. Will NZ raise its defence spending from a pathetic 1.1% of GDP to something like 1.6% of GDP in short order given the geopolitical backdrop in the Northwest Pacific.

Judith Collins: Cleaning up after Manawanui, Pacific-style NATO? | Q+A 2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVw-mYC2lcA&ab_channel=Q%2BAwithJackTame