Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

Its an INVASION!!!!

of ugly bear land ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvAdd4Oefrk

[Davexl]

An Address by Prime Minister of New Zealand, Christopher Luxon (to the prestigious Lowy Institute)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcdezzVSyu0&ab_channel=LowyInstitute

Very impressive speech by PM Luxton. We are very fortunate to have someone as capable as Christopher Luxton as our PM.

However, I will believe that he means what he says concerning Defence and Security expenditure when I see it in black & white in the likely to be waffly Defence Capability Plan - which appears to be undergoing a rethink as it is delayed further to later this year...

When our defence spending rises from a pathetically shameful 1.1% of GDP to at least 1.6% of GDP, in the near term, given the geostrategic state of the world and his stated desire to "be a force multiplier for Australia" then my faith will be somewhat restored.

When our men & women in the services are paid competitively, when we have ordered 4 replacement General Purpose frigates to dovetail with Aussie defence interoperability requirements, when we can fully man them all, when our forces have a higher state of readiness, when we have an air / drone strike force of our own to support out P8's - then and only then can we say "we are doing our bit" to the Aussies.
(No wonder the comments on YouTube were turned off...)

[Waltzing]

yes but dont think he would be any good in the chart departments.....

(he cut funding for music and arts in schools, which means if your kids got talent move to ..... anywhere thats sings, dances, and needs some paint on the walls of the halls)..

and they still do that in Berlin.. check our Emma Smith and the DR orchestra .... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7M55azaQT0I

no experiance with pastels and if google maps goes down someone has to be able to draw where the troubles are....

dont worry though IWI will have some arts and crafts classes for him to go too....

berlin ..... song and dance town....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peaKoJSKRa4


alway keep some coloring in pencils in your back pocket....

[Davexl]

Every new ship built counts to even up the deterrence value...even from little ole NZ
(4 new General Purpose frigates to work with Aust)

Report to Congress on China Naval Modernization

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/20/report-to-congress-on-china-naval-modernization-2?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=6b0002e97d

[Davexl]

Report on U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas - USNI News

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/28/report-on-u-s-china-strategic-competition-in-south-and-east-china-seas-3?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=c66085d221

[Davexl]

New Caledonia crisis: a turning point in Pacific security - by our very own Anne-Marie Brady

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/new-caledonia-crisis-a-turning-point-in-pacific-security/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_696dd2ede3e852c96effa79a1a709f25&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=New%20Caledonia%20crisis%20a%20turning%20point%20in%20Pacific%20security

[Davexl]

China's failed first attempt to stymie the Pacific Policing Initiative - from the PIF

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/chinas-failed-first-attempt-to-stymie-the-pacific-policing-initiative/

[Davexl]

Thailand buying (Saab) Gripens E/F's to keep Myanmar in check

(also balancing China / US acquisitions / exercises) - Asia Times

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/thailand-buying-gripens-to-keep-myanmar-in-check/

Could be a good option for NZ (acquisition)

[Davexl]

US racing to shield Indo-Pacific bases from China's missiles

US Air Force's ACE strategy aims to overhaul base defenses but China's AI and machine-learning advancements may foil the plan

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/us-racing-to-shield-indo-pacific-bases-from-chinas-missiles/

[Waltzing]

No NZ is going to declare its self unable to operate effectively as a country and will have to adopt the KANGA   dollar and join join in a hybrid union with AUS...

its only a matter of time because all the IP will leave the country...

[Davexl]

South Korea gets closer to NATO in the Indo-Pacific

Disrupting the current power equations and the status quo carries both potential benefits and risks for Seoul

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/south-korea-gets-closer-to-nato-in-the-indo-pacific/

"The increase in South Korea's defense spending, rising from 2.4% of GDP in 2005 to 2.7% in 2023, further underscores its growing investment in national defense and its desire to contribute meaningfully to global security efforts." (Compared with NZ's 1.1% of GDP)...

[Davexl]

No NZ is going to declare its self unable to operate effectively as a country and will have to adopt the KANGA   dollar and join join in a hybrid union with AUS...

its only a matter of time because all the IP will leave the country...

Not quite yet, although the Coalition is NZ's last chance to straighten NZ out with some strategic thinking - and it will need at least one further term in Govt to cement the changes (also after voting for a 4-year term in the next referendum). Labour the Greens & Te Pati Maori needs to be entirely relegated into history with the damage they have caused, though demographics maybe in their favour longer term.

NZ is not really compatible with Aussi culturally IMO, though economic integration would be welcomed along with recognition of Aussi franking credits for NZers...

[Davexl]

Perchance to dream...imagine bringing in all this Vietnamese expertise in electronics to NZ, to add to our thriving Philippine community in the sector...

Vietnam becoming a chip-making powerhouse

Global semiconductor makers piling into Vietnam to decouple from China and eschew much higher Western wages

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/vietnam-becoming-a-chip-making-powerhouse/

[Davexl]

Every new ship built counts to even up the deterrence value...even from little ole NZ
(4 new General Purpose frigates to work with Aust)

Report to Congress on China Naval Modernization

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/20/report-to-congress-on-china-naval-modernization-2?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=6b0002e97d

US Deputy Secretary of State Praises NZ as "essential" to US interests, argues for more maritime defence spending...

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/politics/us-deputy-secretary-of-state-kurt-campbell-praises-nz-as-essential-to-us-interests-argues-for-more-maritime-defence-spending

(Very unfortunately Paywalled but "Noted")

[Waltzing]

the south pacific union... kanga dollar with a central bank...

imagine it...  fiji the cooks... NZ , Aus....

might as well use the kanga .... its the only hope...