Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

Yes european weapons stocks up....
 
RAF looks like it needs more jets and new ones... In that RAF Top GUN it looked like the jets were aging...

All european country will need new stuff....

unfortunately many NZ stocks might not see that demand performance..

They did not say which sectors on the market were the top performers... probably the manufactures?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5obFBodSgvQ

Most NZ stocks are consumer based in some way.

Government debt are in most OECD is already tapped out... and the STAG word is sarting to be used..

Is the mosting interesting TOPIC we dont have is

INFLATION TOPIC...

[Davexl]

    Combination water cannons & ramming in SCS

    China Coast Guard Attacks Philippine Ships Near Scarborough Shoal, Say Officials

    https://news.usni.org/2024/04/30/china-coast-guard-attacks-philippine-ships-near-scarborough-shoal-say-officials?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=48ca4bd036&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

[Davexl]

What's at stake:

Will Intel build it's massive new chip-fab facility, before China retakes Taiwan (and the majority of global complex chip-fab manufacturing)...

Intel inside Ohio

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-intel-comeback-chipmaking/?cmpid=BBD050224_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=240502&utm_campaign=marketsasia#:~:text=The%20company%20has%20committed%20%2428,next%2Dgeneration%20artificial%20intelligence%20algorithms.

[Henry Filth]

Combination water cannons & ramming in SCS

    China Coast Guard Attacks Philippine Ships Near Scarborough Shoal, Say Officials

    https://news.usni.org/2024/04/30/china-coast-guard-attacks-philippine-ships-near-scarborough-shoal-say-officials?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=48ca4bd036&mc_eid=cc0f71bf89

I see that the famous "nine-dash line" is slowly giving way to the updated "ten-dash line".

Think of the South China Sea as a box - Vietnam/Malaysia on the west side, Malaysia across the bottom, and the Philippines on the east side. The oil, gas, and other resources are in the box.

Who can put the lid on the box?

[Davexl]

    Philippine Sailor Severely Injured, Vessels Damaged as Chinese Block South China Sea Mission

https://news.usni.org/2024/06/17/philippine-sailor-severely-injured-vessels-damaged-as-chinese-block-south-china-sea-mission?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=a5ea256e36

[Davexl]

US renews warning it's obligated to defend the Philippines after its new clash with China at sea

https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-75c2ecc0804d1160e691f6e066c88f10

[Davexl]

Until the next attempt at resupply ?

China and Philippines hold crucial talks after chaotic confrontation in South China Sea

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/350329998/china-and-philippines-hold-crucial-talks-after-chaotic-confrontation-south

"Marcos said the Chinese actions would not activate the treaty because no shots were fired."

[Davexl]

Introduced by MOKA on the 'other' site - the following presentation by Peter Zeihan recently at Otago University.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/519988/why-new-zealand-needs-to-prepare-now-for-a-future-in-a-world-without-china

Found Peter Zeihan's presentation very interesting. Particularly his idea that Biden will win in a landslide vs Trump.

The key factor of Demographics breaking globalisation and particularly China seems at first on point, but I suspect
he has forgotten one key factor that might save the day, and that is Artificial Intelligence.

A.I. driven factories don't need so many workers to carry on producing goods for a start.

The issue that remains is consumption - who is going to consume all this manufacturing largess.
The answers here are perhaps Africa, South and East Asia, South America, who are ripe for development.

China might yet win the Geopolitics battle as they historically & strategically back the BRICS country networks
that the US has largely ignored until recently.

If we can ignore Thucydides trap, between the US and China, we will all be living in very interesting times...

[Waltzing]

right ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgEOTzSrv9s

[Waltzing]

AI doesnt know what its doing yet ...

but boston dynamics robot (the new one they kept a secret) look pretty good...

Elon is leaving on a Starship ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MIxcvw6LJg

[Davexl]

High noon at Second Thomas Shoal

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/high-noon-at-second-thomas-shoal/

[Davexl]

Helen Clark at it again, pretending that NZ has an independent foreign policy -
certainly not when push comes to shove !

Helen Clark and Don Brash warn Government dragging NZ into US-China conflict

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/helen-clark-and-don-brash-warn-government-dragging-nz-into-us-china-conflict/7CRWIFNXGNEZ5OWT5N7X6SGIBE/

[BlackPeter]

Helen Clark at it again, pretending that NZ has an independent foreign policy -
certainly not when push comes to shove !

Helen Clark and Don Brash warn Government dragging NZ into US-China conflict

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/helen-clark-and-don-brash-warn-government-dragging-nz-into-us-china-conflict/7CRWIFNXGNEZ5OWT5N7X6SGIBE/

I guess its a tough decision. I assume most of us align with values like personal freedom, human rights and democracy, which clearly would give the US a head start if we compare them with the other guy. On the other hand - do we really want to be too close to a country which might be ruled in 6 months by a guy who has been called "America's Hitler" by his running mate (his words, not mine)? If you sit between a rock and a hard place, the best position might be equidistant from both sides instead of gluing yourself to one of the sides and waiting for the other side to squash you.

One other thing to consider: If you look at the last big global crisis (WW2): One of the big economic winners was Switzerland, and they made their fortunes not by picking a winner and running with them, but by keeping distance to all warring parties (neutrality). This way they managed to make amazing deals with both sides. Staying out of this war and making good money instead of sacrificing their children in a war which was not theirs was certainly in the Swiss national interest.

Admittedly - other than NZ did they still maintain an army which would have been able to defend the country, this is probably as well something we could learn form.

But anyway - while I neither particularly like Helen Clark nor Don Brash ... I think they have in this case a point worthwhile to consider. 

[Davexl]

Very much respect your opinion BP, but I would suspect that the time for diplomacy in the form of soft power is coming sadly to an end.

China, by it's actions is demonstrating that it will do whatever it damn wants to eg in the South China Sea, Hong Kong & Taiwan (within limits so far), and the pendulum has swung from soft power relations to hard power between peers.

While it may be expedient to attempt to maintain equi-distance between the two peers involved, at the point the pendulum swings towards hard power it becomes necessary to form alliances and firm up military options, initially for deterrence and then for actual conflict preparation. This is where we are at now.

For New Zealand to attempt neutrality, it needs to be armed neutrality to be credible to outside parties. New Zealand is too broke to afford this - which leads to option two namely alliances.

Australia, while not broke has at least fully recognised the risks of conflict, directly affecting themselves and is putting their money behind where their values lie, as they deem themselves to be highly vulnerable.

NZ is meant to be an ally of Australia's, yet needs to double its defence expenditure to even be in the picture of supportive ally, yet alone being a "force multiplier". I think Luxon might have been a bit over-awed by his American experience this trip around - he needs to contemplate more before he commits himself to paper and speech, we can both agree on that...

[BlackPeter]

Very much respect your opinion BP, but I would suspect that the time for diplomacy in the form of soft power is coming sadly to an end.

China, by it's actions is demonstrating that it will do whatever it damn wants to eg in the South China Sea, Hong Kong & Taiwan (within limits so far), and the pendulum has swung from soft power relations to hard power between peers.

While it may be expedient to attempt to maintain equi-distance between the two peers involved, at the point the pendulum swings towards hard power it becomes necessary to form alliances and firm up military options, initially for deterrence and then for actual conflict preparation. This is where we are at now.

For New Zealand to attempt neutrality, it needs to be armed neutrality to be credible to outside parties. New Zealand is too broke to afford this - which leads to option two namely alliances.

Australia, while not broke has at least fully recognised the risks of conflict, directly affecting themselves and is putting their money behind where their values lie, as they deem themselves to be highly vulnerable.

NZ is meant to be an ally of Australia's, yet needs to double its defence expenditure to even be in the picture of supportive ally, yet alone being a "force multiplier". I think Luxon might have been a bit over-awed by his American experience this trip around - he needs to contemplate more before he commits himself to paper and speech, we can both agree on that...

Nothing wrong with differing opinions - and open to discussions.

But not even sure we disagree on the facts - it is for everybody clear to see that geopolitics is currently moving towards the "hard power". Not sure you've read the Fourth Turning?

"The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny" written by Neil Howe und William Strauss

If you didn't - I can highly recommend it if you are interested in history and want to better understand it.

Anyway - we are currently in a historical period quite similar to the phase which created the Spanish flu, the World economic crisis and World War 2

If you check the history books, you will find that they used at that stage as well plenty of "hard power", and Switzerland used to be much closer to any of the warring parties thant New Zealand is. They even had  a long common boundary with Hitler's Germany.

They still managed to stay neutral and do well, and I can't see why NZ would not be able to do that as well.

Sure - In Switzerland every able male is a trained soldier and has a gun (and ammunition) in his home to be prepared for any attack. Some deterrent to any attacker. Maybe we need to work a bit on rebuilding our army, but better some effort to do that than to leave our fate to some allies who might change their position with every election, dependant on which side had the more convincing better conspiracy theorists.

Well, that's my view anyway. Look I grew up in a country very supportive of the US and always prepared to walk together with them - but I must admit, after the last Trump term and potentially prior to the next alt right term in the US am I not so sure anymore whether these are the people we can or should rely on. Feels just a bit risky to me - I guess Trump would drop us like a hot potato if Xi or Putin offer him some nice compliments and a good deal.