Geopolitical Risk

[LoungeLizard]

Just wondering - what exactly is different between Putins "liberation of Ukraine" and Hitlers "liberation of the German speaking population in Elsass and Lothringen as well as of the German speaking population in Sudetendeutschland? Sure - Hitler was more successful, but otherwise - both events have been based on just a bunch of lies from some racist autocrats and the desire to grab more land from the weaker neighbors.

Look - I realize that you take the historic nonsense you write directly from Putins propaganda machine, but maybe you should at least pretend to know and reflect on historic facts.

There is no evidence at all that Russian speaking population in the East Ukraine had any disadvantages from speaking Russian. Actually - Russian used to be quite widely spoken throughout Ukraine. There is as well no evidence that anybody in the Eastern parts of the Ukraine (but a small number of traitors) wants to join with Russia. First - many of the people living there before the
Russian monsters attacked had to flee from the Russians or the Russians killed them or forced them to relocate into Russia - and second - there was no free election at all in the Eastern part of Ukraine since the Russians attacked.

The only thing we know is that the so called elections in Eastern Ukraine have been neither free (armed criminals recruited into the Russian army forced people to vote the way the regime desired) nor representative. No Russian election under Putin was. Another thing he has in common with Hitler.

So - don't tell us you know what the people in the Eastern parts of the Ukraine want.

Your suggestions related to a peace agreement are ridiculous.

Lets assume that the Mongrel mob is moving into the house next to you. Lets assume that they discover that you have a couple of nice looking girls and maybe a pretty wife, so they come over, rape the girls and the wife and steal your stuff. They kill as well parts of your family and actually threaten to kill you if you don't surrender.

That's what the Russians did in the Ukraine - again and again.

Back to the Mongrel Mob - you know already that they don't keep their promises, because they broke them before. So - would you be happy with them occupying your house, raping your family on an ongoing basis but promising you that you might keep a bed in the sleepout if you shut up in return?

If you are honest - probably not.

So, why are you suggesting this is what Ukraine should do?

Now - has the Ukraine a chance to send the Russian troops back?

Obviously - without support from Nato this is difficult, though I find it amazing how long they managed to stem against a tsunami of Russian criminals and mercenaries. That's the difference to e.g. Afghanistan or Vietnam. The Ukraine is fighting for their own country against a foreign invader. This makes them strong. Putin on the other hand sends mainly criminals and mercenaries. This makes him weak.

Does the NATO support suffice? So far probably not. But the solution is neither to allow the Mongrel Mob to terrorize your family, nor to allow the Russians to terrorize Ukraine.

We have only two options - either we keep our half ars*d support of Ukraine going and move towards a long and painful WW3 (unless Russia crumbles before, but this is a risky game) - or we support Ukraine properly (including stopping the constant Russian terrorist attacks on Ukrainian territory) - and send Putin where he belongs.

On a personal perspective - I find it difficult to understand how anybody could take the side of terrorists, rapists, thieves and child abductors - but hey, if that's where you feel at home?

We heard about some of these Russian troll farms. Just wondering - are you affiliated with them?

Ok, BP, I'll have to respond to that, since you seem to be labouring under the delusion that one cannot hold two thoughts in one's head at the same time. i.e that one can condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine - which I do and have - whilst also accepting that the West stoked the fires by encouraging and promoting the overthrow of it's democratically elected government. It's pretty clear that if the Government hadn't been overthrown none of this would have happened. Check out some of the interviews with Noam Chomsky who cuts through most of the hyperbole that you seem so addicted to.

I know a great deal about history, particularly European - thanks for asking. You however seem to regurgitate the same old tired YouTube nonsense that we have to teach the other side a "lesson". What lesson would that be? How to engineer a nuclear apocalypse in three easy steps? You do seem to be unable to learn from the "axis of evil" and "mission accomplished" rhetoric that has led to so many futile wars in the last few decades.

I'll have to deal with your misinformation, one by one:

1. The issues surrounding Ukraine of 2014 are light years away from 1939 and rise of Nazi Germany. One invasion of one country for reasons that have more to do with the geopolitical environment, cannot be compared to an attempt to essentially take over the entire world. Was the invasion of Iraq a throwback to Hitler's days? Of course not - there was a unique context that precipitated the action. And of course there's the little matter that we are living in the age of nuclear deterrence which prevents any thoughts of the superpowers attacking one another. Although, worryingly there are some - and you do seem to be one of them - that suggest that maybe we should be looking at that.

2. There has been a long history of antipathy between the East and West of Ukraine. Russian Ukrainians have been discriminated against for a longtime - they are not seen as "proper" Ukrainians. Like it or not, there's an ugly thread of hardline, ultra-nationalism that has a hold in the West of Ukraine. Some of these hardliners are now in parliament. One of the first actions of the new parliament after the coup was attempt not to recognise Russian as an offical language. And there have been a lot of atrocities committed against the people of the east, which I won't go into.

3. No-one knows what the people of Crimea and the East really think about the war and how they would like to live after it is all over. So let's ask them shall we, as part of the settlement? Run a UN referendum on self determination or otherwise. Seems like the democratic thing to do, wouldn't you say?

4. The mongrel mob analogy. Really? Let's try something that makes more sense. Palestine. Atrocities committed on both sides. Disputes on who owns what land and where people can live, under what rule. Sound familiar? Israel, backed by the US, killing more civilians in 6 months than the 2 years of the Ukraine war. Using your fight-to-the-death logic (other peoples death that is, not yours of course) we should just watch, and in the case of the US, continue to supply more weapons to allow it to continue. But most reasonable and compassionate people say, this has to stop. The two sides need to call a ceasefire and Hamas and Israel need to negotiate an end to the current conflict, and more broadly a compromise needs to be brokered over these conflicting historical claims. Same with the Ukraine. Same, ultimately with any war.

4. Your attempts at a personal slur, I will take as a sign that you simply don't like to hear an alternative view. It seems like all the years of wars that turned out to be about something that we weren't told, don't exist. You still believe the binary good and evil nonsense that both sides in any war  propagate to their people. The wars of the last 60 years have ALL been about geo-politics. Nothing to do with morality or human rights. The Ukraine is the same. This is a proxy war between the US and Russia, with the people of Ukraine paying the price with their lives. The war hawks have got what they wanted.     

[Azz]

The Russians aren't playing tiddlywinks in Ukraine. They have been doing terrible things. Mass rapes of women and girls. Squads specializing in house-to-house clearances of stolen territory (this means killing everyone on sight: man, woman, child). The theft of Ukrainian children to be taken into Russia to be indoctrinated to hate Ukrainians. Fully equipped torture chambers. Summary executions of POWs. Wholesale theft of priceless Ukrainian artifacts. The deliberate destruction of entire villages and cities. The aiming of missiles into public places (such as cafes) and inhabited apartment buildings. Attempts to destabilize nuclear power plants... It's an impressive list of war crimes.

It's nothing noble or of historic necessity or trying to save Russian speakers or any of that. It's a gang of thugs and thieves with Putin at the top invading a sovereign country with a different language so as to steal its natural resources and enslave its people.

[LoungeLizard]

The Russians aren't playing tiddlywinks in Ukraine. They have been doing terrible things. Mass rapes of women and girls. Squads specializing in house-to-house clearances of stolen territory (this means killing everyone on sight: man, woman, child). The theft of Ukrainian children to be taken into Russia to be indoctrinated to hate Ukrainians. Fully equipped torture chambers. Summary executions of POWs. Wholesale theft of priceless Ukrainian artifacts. The deliberate destruction of entire villages and cities. The aiming of missiles into public places (such as cafes) and inhabited apartment buildings. Attempts to destabilize nuclear power plants... It's an impressive list of war crimes.

It's nothing noble or of historic necessity or trying to save Russian speakers or any of that. It's a gang of thugs and thieves with Putin at the top invading a sovereign country with a different language so as to steal its natural resources and enslave its people.

I don't dispute all of the terrible things that Russia has committed in the Ukraine. They are war crimes and should be treated as so.

 But my main point is - and I'll say it again - you can utterly condemn the actions of the military, but at the same time also be aware that at the heart of this conflict lies a geo-political battle between the US and Russia, precipitated by the overthrow of the Ukraine government in 2014. An overthrow that we - the west - encouraged and promoted. Unfortunately this has been the modus operandi of the US for the last few decades - where it cannot bomb outright, it sows dissent and civil war from within. There are countless examples of that from Asia to the Middle East to South America. And now to Europe.

[Azz]

I don't dispute all of the terrible things that Russia has committed in the Ukraine. They are war crimes and should be treated as so.

 But my main point is - and I'll say it again - you can utterly condemn the actions of the military, but at the same time also be aware that at the heart of this conflict lies a geo-political battle between the US and Russia, precipitated by the overthrow of the Ukraine government in 2014. An overthrow that we - the west - encouraged and promoted. Unfortunately this has been the modus operandi of the US for the last few decades - where it cannot bomb outright, it sows dissent and civil war from within. There are countless examples of that from Asia to the Middle East to South America. And now to Europe.

All good, and I get what you're saying.

I don't actually agree with this, however: "at the heart of this conflict lies a geo-political battle between the US and Russia, precipitated by the overthrow of the Ukraine government in 2014"

The heart of this conflict is Mob Boss Putin wanting to steal a country packed full of resources. He's first and foremost a thief.

If the US had wanted to play - and win - this alleged grand geo-political battle game, they could have gotten Ukraine into Nato easily ages ago, and whilst doing that dropped several Nato military units into Ukraine as a warning. And if they had done that the Russians would never have invaded Ukraine.

[Left Field]

I don't dispute all of the terrible things that Russia has committed in the Ukraine. They are war crimes and should be treated as so.

 But my main point is - .... the heart of this conflict lies a geo-political battle between the US and Russia, precipitated by the overthrow of the Ukraine government in 2014. ... this has been the modus operandi of the US for the last few decades - where it cannot bomb outright, it sows dissent and civil war from within.

Crikey I hadn't thought of that......USA probably used its influence on the Brexit vote to help weaken the ECC and Nato....... USA probably using its influence to allow China to claim large parts of the South China Sea 1000's of miles from its borders. USA also probably used its influence to elect a Moscow loving and Nato hating president. Crikey you are really on to something.

Or it could be that the USA (and many of its allies,) have fallen asleep at the wheel, and have been losing the 'Cold War' for many years.... and are only now waking up.

Now back to investing.....

[Azz]

Or it could be that the USA (and many of its allies,) have fallen asleep at the wheel, and has been losing the 'Cold War' for many years.... and is only now waking up.

The waking-up part is taking a while.

Now back to investing.....

There's nothing like it. It's a damn fine hobby/career/obsession.

[LoungeLizard]

Crikey I hadn't thought of that......USA probably used its influence on the Brexit vote to help weaken the ECC and Nato....... USA probably using its influence to allow China to claim large parts of the South China Sea 1000's of miles from its borders. USA also probably used its influence to elect a Moscow loving and Nato hating president. Crikey you are really on to something.

Or it could be that the USA (and many of its allies,) have fallen asleep at the wheel, and have been losing the 'Cold War' for many years.... and are only now waking up.

Now back to investing.....

I realise you're probably being sarcastic there LF, but to say that the US intervenes when its interests are threatened shouldn't come as shock, surely? Or does it?

[LoungeLizard]

All good, and I get what you're saying.

I don't actually agree with this, however: "at the heart of this conflict lies a geo-political battle between the US and Russia, precipitated by the overthrow of the Ukraine government in 2014"

The heart of this conflict is Mob Boss Putin wanting to steal a country packed full of resources. He's first and foremost a thief.

If the US had wanted to play - and win - this alleged grand geo-political battle game, they could have gotten Ukraine into Nato easily ages ago, and whilst doing that dropped several Nato military units into Ukraine as a warning. And if they had done that the Russians would never have invaded Ukraine.

That doesn't make any sense I'm afraid. The US couldn't have, out of the clear blue sky, "dropped several Nato military units into Ukraine." Admittedly , it can, and does, do that in the Middle East, but Europe is another matter altogether. It would be a huge breach of international law, sovereignty and would lead to a direct confrontation with Russia. And it would be the US that would be condemned by the international community, not Russia.
Nope, subverting from within was the only way, and far better, as there are no US servicemen lives at risk. This proxy war has a lot of benfits for the US - good for the war industry ( and as Joe Biden said, the US economy), has disconnected Russia from Europe and has led Europe to finally start spending more on its defence
Lots of big wins there.

[Azz]

That doesn't make any sense I'm afraid. The US couldn't have, out of the clear blue sky, "dropped several Nato military units into Ukraine." Admittedly , it can, and does, do that in the Middle East, but Europe is another matter altogether. It would be a huge breach of international law, sovereignty and would lead to a direct confrontation with Russia. And it would be the US that would be condemned by the international community, not Russia.
Nope, subverting from within was the only way, and far better, as there are no US servicemen lives at risk. This proxy war has a lot of benfits for the US - good for the war industry ( and as Joe Biden said, the US economy), has disconnected Russia from Europe and has led Europe to finally start spending more on its defence
Lots of big wins there.

The US could have had Ukraine join Nato; plenty of other ex-Soviet nations joined. And if Ukraine invited Nato units onto their soil, whether Ukraine was a Nato member or not, that would be up to Ukraine - NOT RUSSIA. What has Russia got to do with the decision making of the sovereign nation of Ukraine?

[Azz]

Crikey I hadn't thought of that......USA probably used its influence on the Brexit vote to help weaken the ECC and Nato....... USA probably using its influence to allow China to claim large parts of the South China Sea 1000's of miles from its borders. USA also probably used its influence to elect a Moscow loving and Nato hating president.

If only! :-)

One thing that has defeated consistent and intelligent US foreign policy aims for a very long time is the dysfunction between the federal govt departments related to interaction with other countries - ie, decades-long vicious rivalries between State, Defense, CIA. One lot will f*ck up a foreign country because it's good for America, and another lot will then send aid and voice support for that foreign country because those unfortunate foreign people are suffering, while the lot remaining will have a wait-and-see approach and screw over whoever seems to have the upper hand in Washington at any given time (but usually by eventually f*cking up the foreign country concerned no matter what).

[LoungeLizard]

The US could have had Ukraine join Nato; plenty of other ex-Soviet nations joined. And if Ukraine invited Nato units onto their soil, whether Ukraine was a Nato member or not, that would be up to Ukraine - NOT RUSSIA. What has Russia got to do with the decision making of the sovereign nation of Ukraine?

The Ukraine Governments prior to 2014, were firmly neutral and had expressed no interest in joining NATO. There could be no forcing of the Ukraine to join NATO, the Ukraine Government at that time (Yanukovych) was also against it. The only way to change that was to change the Government - either through the democratic process of an election (scheduled to be held only 12 months after the coup) or through a coup. A section of Ukraine (encouraged by the US and Europe), sadly, chose the coup as their method to get a more Western sympathetic Government in place. And the rest is history.

[Azz]

The Ukraine Governments prior to 2014, were firmly neutral and had expressed no interest in joining NATO. There could be no forcing of the Ukraine to join NATO, the Ukraine Government at that time (Yanukovych) was also against it. The only way to change that was to change the Government - either through the democratic process of an election (scheduled to be held only 12 months after the coup) or through a coup. A section of Ukraine (encouraged by the US and Europe), sadly, chose the coup as their method to get a more Western sympathetic Government in place. And the rest is history.

You're basically pro-Russian. Imagine if you were in-person saying, the things you're saying, to a Ukrainian - one who had witnessed the horrors of the invasion. Would you stand there and say these things? Would you be so confident of your "knowledge" (which is nothing but propagandized Russian fantasy dressed up as history)?

[LoungeLizard]

You're basically pro-Russian. Imagine if you were in-person saying, the things you're saying, to a Ukrainian - one who had witnessed the horrors of the invasion. Would you stand there and say these things? Would you be so confident of your "knowledge" (which is nothing but propagandized Russian fantasy dressed up as history)?

Agin with the slurring. I have already said that the Russian invasion was wrong and the military are committing war crimes. I am talking purely about the context surrounding that invasion -  and none of what I have said is wrong in fact. It doesn't mean I am pro-Russian to say that this is a geo-political proxy war between the US and Russia. Your mistake is to think that these sort of wars or international events are 100% to do with one side only. Zero on the other. There are people who like to say that the situation in Gaza is all Hamas's fault or all Israels fault, when the truth lies somewhere in between. To recognise that and to advocate a negotiated settlement isn't propaganda for one side or the other. It's a recognition of facts and it's compassionate to call for an end to war, to end the suffering.
I can't think of any recent war that the West, or any other country for that matter, has been involved in that has ended well for the local people. I don't think the Ukraine will ultimately be any different.

[Azz]

I have already said that the Russian invasion was wrong and the military are committing war crimes. I am talking purely about the context surrounding that invasion -  and none of what I have said is wrong in fact. It doesn't mean I am pro-Russian to say that this is a geo-political proxy war between the US and Russia. Your mistake is to think that these sort of wars or international events are 100% to do with one side only. Zero on the other.

I've seen this diversionary focus many times before on the specific things you've mentioned, and to a person they were all coming from supporters of the Russian military. Not neutrals. But absolute supporters of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Maybe you're the first one who isn't. But I'm just telling you the company you keep.

[LoungeLizard]

I've seen this diversionary focus many times before on the specific things you've mentioned, and to a person they were all coming from supporters of the Russian military. Not neutrals. But absolute supporters of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Maybe you're the first one who isn't. But I'm just telling you the company you keep.

Maybe. But then I could say that you are part of the company you keep - ie rabid war mongerers who would risk an all out war with Russia to prove a point. I'm assuming though that you're not, so extend the same credit and we're fine.