Geopolitical Risk

Waltzing · Dec 05, 2023, 09:38 PM

Is there some semblance of civilisation left in Russia?

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-war-z-symbol-resistance-legal-actions-vandalism/32713146.html

kiwi2007 · Dec 05, 2023, 11:18 PM

Quote from: Onemootpoint on Dec 05, 2023, 02:35 AMRoll out the welcome mat; we will not resist....

Does NZ really need its defence force, asks leading academic

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/richard-jackson-does-nz-really-need-its-defence-force/CE7GHBBRBJBLXBMZNTVA6PZK3E/

No mention of the great technical training and character building members receive throughout their service. I suspect the authors are all well to the left and would be unlikely to find anything positive to say about the armed forces.

Waltzing · Dec 06, 2023, 03:55 PM

3 years!!! ok not quite sure Russia can replace all those tanks.... but the EU wont have that many anyway ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/05/nato-has-three-years-to-prepare-for-russian-attack/

If this is half true its very concering especially for your investment horizons...

kiwi2007 · Dec 06, 2023, 08:44 PM

Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 06, 2023, 03:55 PM3 years!!! ok not quite sure Russia can replace all those tanks.... but the EU wont have that many anyway ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/05/nato-has-three-years-to-prepare-for-russian-attack/

If this is half true its very concering especially for your investment horizons...

Unfortunately I'll never know, because, I don't have free access .

Waltzing · Dec 07, 2023, 09:44 AM

Its a MESS... the west under supplied and took to long to get it all underway...

The offensive is really a massive stall.... will the US get it right the second time if there is a second time...

Its looking like a repeat of history and Russia is back and a war with NATO is coming...

its 1935 .... Europe needs to rearm and after 2014 Europe and Germany have been in denial...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USr4oKR7Rko

Its a slow train wreck and PUTIN is now going to rearm and there will be more wars in EUROPE in the next decades...

Thank goodness the FINS and the POLES are preparing to defending themselves.....

New Wars coming people in Europe.

Ferg · Dec 07, 2023, 10:35 AM

Quote from: kiwi2007 on Dec 05, 2023, 11:18 PMNo mention of the great technical training and character building members receive throughout their service. I suspect the authors are all well to the left and would be unlikely to find anything positive to say about the armed forces.

I'm right there with you.....once I saw it was a University academic I didn't waste any time reading the article.

Slightly off topic but Kiwi comedian Javier talks to an English audience about our air force and defence against an invading force (NSFW language):

Waltzing · Dec 07, 2023, 10:48 AM

Jokes asides that pretty much sums it all up...

he did not say what kind of apple ..?

the story here is to stock pile and freeze apples as a last line of defence...

BlackPeter · Dec 07, 2023, 01:21 PM

Sounds like the Chinese did already win the next global conflict ... they can replace destroyed warships three times faster than the Americans can!

https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s-can-afford-a-bigger-military-we-just-cant-build-it-7edd0e74
(probably paywalled)

Sounds like paying for all these weapons is not the problem, building them is! The West enjoyed the peace dividend after the cold war far too long - and now we have neither the specialist skills nor the factories able to produce military stuff.

West closed down most large scale military development and manufacturing in the early 1990'ies. I was one of the engineers who moved at that stage to commercial development, when our company moved away from military (communication) products. Thirty years later - the people with specialist skills in this field have retired, and nobody after them learned these skills ... there are not even enough of them left to help quickly ramping up a new skilled workforce.

Maybe we should improve our relations with North Korea and Iran? I am sure both the dear leader as well as the Ayatollah's have enough people with skills and recent experience in military development and production ...

What a shambles ...

Waltzing · Dec 07, 2023, 06:41 PM

Yes the Chinese have ramped ship building and thats also why NZ is sleep walking into not being able to defend its costal waters... no submarines and no robotic under sea warefare capability...

Not all bad news from the Eastern front... the UKE took down a 100 million dollar air defence system with some drones...

could David Slay the goliath yet?

These polish new site will be shut down soon by the left leaning communist government just elected in poland....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96a5ViKH0yE

and the results of a direct hit on a russian tank by a modern advanced drone . WHich model drone hit it we dont know but it was a lethal hit and the tank exploded into small itty bity bits...

Latvia needs to buy thousands of attack dones... so many it can wipe out the entire russian tank force and then invade russia and capture an undefended moscow...

It now obvious that after the mutiny the UKE's should have been given 300 AB MTB's and allowed to take moscow by 500 Bradleys....

End of History moment lost there im afriad....

The great Khan would have pulled it off...

Waltzing · Dec 07, 2023, 06:50 PM

Its 1935 BP...1935... and no doubt someone will be waving "peace in our time"

oh thats right they already did that back in 2014.

Waltzing · Dec 07, 2023, 07:03 PM

BP dont worry the Russian can only make new T64 tanks...

and there are plently of M60's still in service in Turkey....

may be those old Lp1 combined with AB mark ones can save the day in europe but not if china invades someone...

lucky the south koreans have a arms industry and some good gear...

Waltzing · Dec 07, 2023, 07:19 PM

This is possibly one of the last production of RR from poland on the forces of evil now attacking the west...

Real or imagined...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOCYWX_Qfmc

Vald the volatile ... im going to invade europe!!!

well have to ask "WHAT WITH!"

Waltzing · Dec 07, 2023, 09:48 PM

Spread the panic ..... the internet is full of these presentations and some will even use HI tech software like Unreal... AI will soon hear and see. It will also be able to write code that is more advanced than just boiler plate....

Watch out for presentation that use big software engines like UNREAL.

You will think your looking at a presentation made by for instance the Institute for War and it well researched...

But in fact it will be generated by AI and could actually cause people to be influenced by these high presentations that are in fact AI generated and possible also generated by countries like Russia...

We wont be able to know what we are watching or where it is generated or where the information came from...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5B9FBiFkQk

Waltzing · Dec 07, 2023, 10:13 PM

They are still in the fight ...

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/12/07/ukraine-avdiivka-soldiers-coren-ac360-vpx.cnn

Waltzing · Dec 08, 2023, 03:00 PM

War in Europe and can Russia rebuild it military as it can allocate 30 Percentage of GDP to military expenditure....

Russian is now set to put it country and economy on a WAR footing...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/07/russia-attacks-port-live-from-the-uae-as-putin-visits/

Best assement yet of the stalemate and highlights that Russia is once again in control due to it superior supply of muntions.. Shell production for firing artillery is out stripping wester production... Its serious read and highlights that the ukraine command and control structures are still not western combined arms proficient...

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-fizzled-counteroffensive-fears-grow-of-a-stalemate-on-the-front-in-ukraine-a-e27e00b8-c0a0-4d18-ba33-e6f612ce8973