Geopolitical Risk

[Davexl]

The (Aussi) Navy gets bigger under the fleet review. But is it enough?

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-navy-gets-bigger-under-the-fleet-review-but-is-it-enough/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_1abc83e0e9fa2179a1c882224bc57e62&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=The%20Navy%20gets%20bigger%20under%20the%20fleet%20review%20But%20is%20it%20enough

Going to be interesting to see where NZ's tiny Navy will fit in. Don't know if buying extra Hunter-class frigates is an option (it is considered as a Tier-1 warship), perhaps we will buy 3-4 General Purpose Frigates, perhaps the S. Korean Daegu-II or III class modular frigates ? They will at least add a significant number of VLS's to the fleet to update missile capabilities in any future conflict.

[Waltzing]

UKraine uses drone boats..

NZ will need a navy of Drone Waka's,,,,

with no ferries for the cook ditch ... what hope is there of some new navy boats...

the country maybe approaching one of Roger D moments in economic history.

[Waltzing]

The Risk going up or just words ..

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/27/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html

this could move markets but would it make any dif the NZX as it already in the doldrums...

[BlackPeter]

UKraine uses drone boats..

NZ will need a navy of Drone Waka's,,,,

with no ferries for the cook ditch ... what hope is there of some new navy boats...

the country maybe approaching one of Roger D moments in economic history.

Maybe we could train some of our dolphins to attach mines on animal ships? Both Russian navy as well as US navy seems to use dolphins in warfare - why not we?

Source: quora.com:

The US Navy Marine Mammal Program has been training dolphins and sea lions since the 1960s to perform a variety of tasks, including: Underwater surveillance: Dolphins can be outfitted with cameras to scope out enemy submersibles or check out underwater defenses around coastal installations.25.07.2023

The naval base there is important to the Russian military because of its proximity to the Crimean Peninsula. Russia's military is using specially trained dolphins to defend a critical naval base off Crimea, according to an analysis published by U.S. Naval Institute News.29.04.2022

Source:

[Davexl]

From Bloomberg:
Marcos Says a Death May Trigger US Pact as China Tensions Rise

    Philippines says no plan to give US access to more bases
    Marcos eyes exploring oil and gas in non-conflict areas

"The Philippines will invoke its defense treaty with the US if a Filipino soldier dies from a foreign attack, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said, in remarks that come amid growing tensions with China.
"I think Secretary Austin explained it very well, if any Filipino serviceman is killed by an attack from any foreign power, then that is time to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty," Marcos told foreign correspondents in Manila on Monday, referring to his conversation with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin last week at the Pentagon."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-15/marcos-says-no-plans-to-grant-us-access-to-more-military-bases?cmpid=BBD041524_MKT

Let's hope the resupply missions to Ayungin shoal (in the Spratlys) go well then, and the severe injuries from China's water cannons / ramming maneuvers don't kill anybody in the SCS.
One would like to think that the President would be bluffing (the death of one person say) though he IS the President, and he discussed this with the US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, so...

(There were 14 resupply missions to the shoal concerned, so once a month give or take)

Between the possibility of a wider Middle-East war (with Israel still feeling aggrieved) and an accidental trigger in the SCS, risk is going up several more notches.

[Davexl]

This article is somewhat prescient - and what I have been trying to warn about in the "other" blog in recent years - the likelihood of a Chinese war over Taiwan or the SCS...
I suggest you make the effort to read this article if you care about the geopolitical risks at this time...Good luck...

Mystery gold buyer is betting on geopolitical and financial mayhem

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph)

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/mystery-gold-buyer-is-betting-on-geopolitical-and-financial-mayhem-20240417-p5fkdc.html?instance=2024-04-18-08-16-AEST&jobid=30400792&list_name=2031_smh_busnews_am&mbnr=MjI4NTYzMDg&promote_channel=edmail

(You need a SMH free account and to log-in or Telegraph sub)

"It is not a Western institution behind this. It is a massive player with very deep pockets. I have never seen this kind of buying before," said Ross Norman, a veteran gold trader and now chief executive of Metals Daily.

Gold has been ratcheting up fresh records against the headwinds of a strong dollar, a 70 point jump in 10-year US Treasury yields, and hawkish talk from the Federal Reserve. This mix would normally spell trouble for gold.

Whoever it is – or they are – seems insensitive to cost. Central banks do not behave like this. "They buy on the London benchmark and they don't chase the price," said Norman. This rally is happening off books in the OTC market."

[Waltzing]

yes buying gold is up and that is very interesting....

it was supposed to be useless ...

apparently a few central banks have been buying lately...

https://www.reuters.com/plus/why-central-banks-buy-gold

[kiwi2007]

...and Gordon Brown sold almost all the UK's gold right at the bottom. Decent guy compared to several PMs the UK's had but what a mistake there.

[Waltzing]

Name a Labour party somewhere in the world that does accounting ... 

They dont teach accounting in hHstory and the Arts ....

great subjects though...cant do without them...

Obviously did not talk to G Soros....

https://www.centarzlata.com/en/george-soros/ 

[Minimoke]

Now just raised a notch or two with Israel striking Iran

[Breezy]

Now just raised a notch or two with Israel striking Iran

Good but it was only a pussycat strike in this instance by comparison with Iran's the other day which could have caused catastrophic damage.

[kiwi2007]

Looked on FlightRadar and four hours after the 'strike' near Isfahan two Emirates flights, one coming from London and the other Washington, were crossing Iran and flying 100 miles East of Isfahan heading for Dubai.

I wonder if all the passengers were cool with the route?

[Davexl]

Time to get with it on Drones esp counter-drone people eg. DRO (middle of capital raise) & EOS (just finished CR) in Aust.
Disclosure: own both

Ukraine's Experience in Developing Lethal Drones Should Be Lesson for NATO, Says Panel

https://news.usni.org/2024/04/18/ukraines-experience-in-developing-lethal-drones-should-be-lesson-for-nato-says-panel?ct=t(USNI_NEWS_DAILY)&mc_cid=69f0fdfd1e

[Waltzing]

Risk just went down ... a fraction...

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/house-vote-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid-04-20-24/index.html

[LoungeLizard]

Risk just went down ... a fraction...

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/house-vote-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid-04-20-24/index.html

Can't see how providing more weapons reduces risk. Risk of what - war?