Geopolitical Risk

[kiwi2007]

Ukrainian optimism fades at start of another winter of war
Rumours of tensions at the top, exhaustion after two years of fighting and frustration with allies dampen the mood in Kyiv.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/ukrainian-optimism-fades-at-start-of-another-winter-of-war

With a distinct lack of volunteers for the Ukrainian army and 30,000 already dead the enthusiasm for carrying on seems to come from those not directly in the firing line (as usual).

I also think many in the USA are starting to wonder why they are supplying most of the money and hardware for a fight in Europe when many of the European nations seem to have long pockets and short arms.

[Waltzing]

YUP dont forget to watch FDR on history TV....

its all a repeat of history... we are in the spain time line...

and the ART of the Garden on arts TV..

[Waltzing]

Why is china sound pinging australian divers off Japan...

Why are the CHIKA planes hot dogging the Allied (the US, CANUCKS, AUSSIES ect) over south china sea...

remember when russia started doing the same a while back... militaries pushing outside the UN rules...

It all adds up to the same play book... the same playbook that ment he had to invade ukraine becuase his brain could not help it.... after all when you the top  Caesar there is only them in history to compare to...

https://kyivindependent.com/harvard-historian-serhii-plokhy-the-better-we-prepare-for-the-long-war-the-sooner-it-will-end/

[Waltzing]

Well who would have though this Soviet country could be what Kiev needs... some old stuff that goes bang...

Take the tour...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUWNTaDzrPY

and those things that go bang...

https://kyivindependent.com/despite-strong-russian-influence-bulgaria-to-provide-ukraine-with-arms/

[kiwi2007]

If the West Cuts Aid to Ukraine, Russia Will Win. If the West Leans in, Ukraine Can Win.

By Frederick W. Kagan

The positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate. It is not the result of fundamental realities in modern warfare that can only be changed with a technological or tactical revolution, as was the First World War's stalemate. Neither does it rest on a permanent parity in military capacity between Russia and Ukraine that will continue indefinitely regardless of Western support to Kyiv. It results, on the contrary, from self-imposed limitations on the technologies the West has been willing to provide Ukraine and constraints on the Russian defense industrial base largely stemming from Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness so far to commit Russia fully to this war. The current balance is thus, in fact, highly unstable, and could readily be tipped in either direction by decisions made in the West...............

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/if-west-cuts-aid-ukraine-russia-will-win-if-west-leans-ukraine-can-win

An interesting read.

[Waltzing]

Looks bad for UKE land... weapons not going to be shipped for a victory?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/24/germany-and-us-want-zelensky-to-make-peace-with-moscow/

its the 1930's rerun 2.....  of "AXIS of EVIL"  not sure why Hollywood is waiting to make a film of it...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/11/25/liz-truss-washington-dc-republicans-ukraine-war/

[BlackPeter]

Looks bad for UKE land... weapons not going to be shipped for a victory?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/24/germany-and-us-want-zelensky-to-make-peace-with-moscow/

its the 1930's rerun 2.....  of "AXIS of EVIL"  not sure why Hollywood is waiting to make a film of it...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/11/25/liz-truss-washington-dc-republicans-ukraine-war/

Jeez - you can't be serious?

The telegraph referring to "Bild".

Bild is as a newspaper in Germany the equivalent to what Fox news is now in the US. They are well known for making up their news instead of doing research. Referring to Bild for news means - its either lies or hyperbole ... otherwise they could refer to a credible source.

[Waltzing]

Well BP , the Tankers on the Telegraph and the comentators (ex military) on you tubby have been saying for a long time that they cant understand why so few  tanlie's and long range missiles have been shipped after how many days of  trouble at the wood shed......

it does look  a bit odd that only 30 AB were shipped... the AB while being a technical Tonka Tank to field is apparently easy to put in cruise control and play with the game boy controls....

imagine if the US in world war 2 had said to the British... are you sure you can handle our tanks and planes... we are sending over some trainers to check you can read the manual....

it a political foot ball ... what a mess... 

 how much money was paid out to many people over the last decade in europe from various source crime related from the orders of the kremlin..

did that magazine get some money from somewhere to write what ever junk they were told?

the dutch chap visited moscow not long ago.

[Waltzing]

Well BP - this appears to be a WIN for Ukraine...

Could be a big tourist attraction back in KEIV as this COOK sets up his street food van...

BBQ steaks ....

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-donetsk-chef-michelin-kitchen-morale-russia-front-lines-mice-mackerel/32695688.html

wonder if this story stuff is more accurate ...

https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?action=post;msg=15388;topic=37.780

we will have to go over to oryx to count up the Tonka Toys that arent operating properly ...

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

how do you pronouce that anyway...

more Tonka Toys ...

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/search/label/Ukraine

with all these Tonka Toys is must  just be the biggest mine fields in the world and massive artillery keep the Ugly Bear in this fight..

[BlackPeter]

Well BP , the Tankers on the Telegraph and the comentators (ex military) on you tubby have been saying for a long time that they cant understand why so few  tanlie's and long range missiles have been shipped after how many days of  trouble at the wood shed......

it does look  a bit odd that only 30 AB were shipped... the AB while being a technical Tonka Tank to field is apparently easy to put in cruise control and play with the game boy controls....

imagine if the US in world war 2 had said to the British... are you sure you can handle our tanks and planes... we are sending over some trainers to check you can read the manual....

it a political foot ball ... what a mess... 

 how much money was paid out to many people over the last decade in europe from various source crime related from the orders of the kremlin..

did that magazine get some money from somewhere to write what ever junk they were told?

the dutch chap visited moscow not long ago.

I give you that both the European as well as the US effort to help Ukraine appears somewhat half-ar*ed.

Clearly - if they both would open their arsenals and would have told (and paid) their respective industries to ramp up ammunition production for a long and intense artillery war, than things would look different now.

Its just - things are complicated.

Politicians in all Western countries need to make sure they keep their voters happy.

A lot of right wing populist voters complaining about too much support going to UKE. Just look at the spectacle the US tea party (aka GOP) is playing to underfund the UKE support - and what I hear from Germany ... there are as well populist politicians (luckily not in power yet, but their support is rising) fighting against UKE support.

Not everybody in the West would be happy to risk Putin pressing the nuclear button (and therefore reluctant to increase support for UKE) - and people are just asking whether they should risk the destruction of their lives and lifelyhoods for supporting UKE. Right or wrong, but people are people and fearful.

Most (or all) Western armies have been run down over the last two generations or so. When I served in the Bundeswehr (in the late 1970íes) it used to be a well equipped and motivated army with more than 500,000 soldiers. They had good gear and plenty of ammunition, thanks to the threats of the cold war being at its peak. When my son served there nearly 30 years later, the size of the army was shrunk to one quarter, many weapons systes have been the same they have had 25 years earlier (and started to show their age) - and ammunition was just enough to cover for the next annual exercise and a bit of playing "peace games" in Afghanistan. Politicians just didn't get any brownie points in that time for using tax money to boost the army.

I recon all Western countries enjoyed the "Friedensdividende" (peace dividend) a bit too much - and they now just don't have all the material and ammunition they might want to provide without leaving themselves without protection. Most people are happy to help their neighbours if they can help them with giving them some of their spares / reserves, but giving them the stuff they need for themselves is a different game.

So - I guess the question is - how much are we all prepared to reduce our standard of living (and potentially risk our lifes and the lifes of our children) to help UKE against the Russian attack? Would we be happy for our taxes to say increase by 10% to allow real support of Ukraine?

As long as we don't give UKE full support, we probaly can't blame others as well ...

[kiwi2007]

Unfortunately corruption in the UKE is still  endemic and I'd imagine undermines the financial support that some other European countries are prepared to give. Also an argument, no doubt, that Trump would use to reduce American support.

[Waltzing]

YUP ... auditing the spending is going to be hard when tracking all that equipment...

Ukraine was highlighted in the movie "Lord of War"

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-james-jones-interview-long-range-weapons/32700251.html

[Waltzing]

"I think we did a lot, which successfully convinced a big part of the Global South that Russia is making troubles across the world. And that Russian behavior has a dramatic and negative impact on the most valuable countries in terms of food and security, economic crisis, inflation, etc."

are we in a World at War....

https://kyivindependent.com/charles-michel-its-up-to-ukrainians-to-decide-on-elections-in-2024/

[Waltzing]

Some poor decisions made by Ukraine commanders in the field leaves these soldiers in big trouble....

So much for drone recon....

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/28/europe/avdiivka-ukraine-trenches-oleh-senysov-intl-hnk/index.html

[Waltzing]

Apparently the UGLY BEARS have already shot the long range gluide bombs down launched by Ukraine...

only they dont have any yet and they wont arrive until 2024...

https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-delivery-of-new-us-long-range-weapon-systems-for-ukraine-pushed-to-2024/