Geopolitical Risk

[Onemootpoint]

Putin tells Poland any aggression against Belarus is attack on Russia

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-tells-poland-any-aggression-against-belarus-is-attack-russia-2023-07-21/


Moscow would react to any aggression against Belarus, which forms a loose "Union State" with Russia, "with all the means at our disposal", Putin told a meeting of his Security Council in televised remarks.

Russia has in recent weeks begun stationing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus for the first time.

[kiwi2007]

Found this quite informative:

From FT comments section by reader Timl:

   For readers interested in the tactical and strategic challenges of displacing Russian defenders from Ukrainian territory, commentary by military analyst Michael Kofman is very informative. His podcast is available at the War on The Rocks website, some of which is free..

In essence,
1. Ukrainians fought an effective self-defence in 2022., including counter-attacks against mobile Russian forces in the north east, around Kharkiv.
2. The Ukrainian 2023 counter offensive is taking place on two fronts.
2a. In the east, where an attritional war of mobile forces continues around Bakhmut
2b Across a southern front toward Melitopol, where Ukrainian forces are attacking three well-prepared fixed defensive lines, with a Russian army dug in and fortified behind multiple minefields, trench lines and concealed fortifications.
3. Preliminary 'shaping operations' in early June failed to expose a weak point which might be exploited by the Ukrainians. I
4. In the south, Ukrainian forces are attacking in company and battalion strength, through minefields, toward first-line trench systems.
As specialist mine-clearing vehicles are detected, they are being put out of action by direct artillery fire (from 1km), infantry anti-tank weapons (up to 2km), helicopters (from 8km) and use of tactical minelaying. As forces advance, remote minelaying weapons lay mines behind them, preventing retreat, casualty evacuation and re-supply.
5. in the south, casualties from mines (anti personnel, anti vehicle and booby traps) slows offensive progress and saps morale of the attackers. There is a shortage of specialist engineers and equipment to overcome these defences. Tactical coordination in attack between branches of the army has, in some cases, been poor.
6. In most areas, artillery, along with counter-battery fire of all types, contributes to attritional warfare, as each side consumes ammunition and human resources. In general, attackers suffer more casualties and equipment losses in first phases than defenders.

[Waltzing]

Perun is as usual at his best ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zcUe47xerQ

[Waltzing]

from the front lines ... the boy flying suicide missions...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2vKRP-MxFY

[Waltzing]

Control of the Black Seas...

https://www.rferl.org/a/erdogan-looks-west-putin-russia/32514668.html

[Waltzing]

The Evil bear in Moscow now looks like he needs to stir up trouble on the polish border after all the polish PM and his team were wiped out on a russian airliner not long ago...

Evil bear needs to stir up the trouble where ever he can to detract from his failures...

How far is the bear willing to go barking at Nato eastern border... probably not far as finland has more stuff and now sweden is on board as well...

https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-lukashenka-wager-poland/32515408.html

[Waltzing]

Makes for sad reading... trenched being mined ... so many mines that even western armies would struggle...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66306150

[Waltzing]

A COF that as always going to achieve less by lack of western political will.... set in place years ago in fact almost a decade ago.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/stalled-at-the-front-lack-of-western-weapons-contributes-to-slow-progress-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-a-6c8cc665-44cb-41f0-89df-ca4ecee9a16e

[Waltzing]

What are the SK's doing to reduce the risk to the south pacific...

Its ARM UP BIG!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXZw_YGzxCc

and in this video there is an NZ Tank!!!

[Onemootpoint]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXZw_YGzxCc

and in this video there is an NZ Tank!!!

Yes, of course. Doing our bit! 

[Waltzing]

Pooh Pooh's support for war plummets in Urals... or somewhere out there in the heartland...  is there something stirring out there beyond the spires of Moscow?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/30/putin-local-election-candidates-not-mentioning-ukraine-war/

[Waltzing]

The WOKE wont invest in defence ...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/news/how-to-cash-in-backing-vital-defence-firms-woke-banks/

[Waltzing]

What is Worrying Kiwi's ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132658217/its-a-bit-bleak-government-officials-warn-of-the-future-new-zealand-faces

[Waltzing]

 Is the UK the place we will see the the effect of  global rate hikes and a deep recession.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/03/the-british-economy-is-being-hit-by-four-policy-shocks/

[Waltzing]

Its in times like these you that realise that it is the generations from before the second world war that one wants to hear from.

Before there was a UN and the league of nations was the first body to bring some semblance of  governance to the world what was it like for nations to live in this world and how did people see themselves...

As the world once again veers into the abyss of the Heart of Darkness.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/un-envoy-on-the-civil-war-in-sudan-both-warring-parties-are-still-convinced-they-can-win-a-d5154f6b-21d3-428b-8975-678719778cc7