Geopolitical Risk

[BlackPeter]

Recently someone said china would not engage in actual live fire on anyone outside it boundaries but that little island it considers to be inside its boundaries.

The west is now lagging in long range fire although Finland is working on long range rocket shells.

But this little bit of KIT from China poses a real threat along the Line of Control in the Himalayas and across the lagoon from TW.

Military dont care about stock markets like you do.  Is GOLD becoming a more important assets class as the world gears up to fire all sorts of things all over the place.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-A31fegpaAI

You sure that artillery will be the most important component if China attacks Taiwan?

Have a look at the map as well as at Taiwan's distance from China.

I've been to Taiwan ... and I don't remember a lot of places where heavy artillery would be useful for an attacker.

What the Chinese would need is lots of boats and plenty of dispensable soldiers familiar with the Taiwanese topography. Plenty of opportunities to replay ANZAC cove if that's what makes them tick. Maybe planes, but they need to calculate with a terrible toll - Taiwan does have fist class air defence systems.

What the Taiwanese would need is plenty of surface - ship or air - ship missiles - and obviously enough ammunition for their air defence systems.

Don't think artillery will feature - certainly not from the Chinese side.  Not enough accessible places to hide the launchers - any heavy artillery would just be  a sitting duck.

Possible though that the Taiwanese did install some artillery in their mountain ranges (I don't know, but I know that many of their mountains are only accessible with special permit), at least they had all time of the world to plan for and install them.

[Waltzing]

China has huge roll on roll off ferries developed to handle a tone of equipment....

What if XI is toppled by a military coup?

will the chinese rise up or will the military stay loyal to the party..

There appears to be a play by the russian military to control the WPMC ...

What is WPMC going to do about it... all small stuff but it shows FLUX..

[Waltzing]

Latest update from Poland on the starting Offensive.  There is coverage of the failed advanced that got ambushed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZioTG9szZs

[Waltzing]

The Dance of the wicked ...  as confusion increases in the KM.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/13/vladimir-putin-russia-lost-tanks-counter-offensive-ukraine/

[Waltzing]

Ukraine group takes a HIt in their APC's the BRAD... and the whole crew is able to bail... 3 BRADS farther up also appear to have been hit by mines and the crews bailed...

The red smoke is actually not fire but red smoke screen making it look like the BRAD is on fire which it is not..

Imagine the problem for farmers ...  what a nightmare.. "How many cows we lose today dear?"

Good advert for the old piece of Kit...

[Waltzing]

Though of quick trip to the Paris of the East and your looking for a good 5 Star Hotel. Well this one could your next exciting road trip!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/15/luxury-ukraine-hotels/

Heart warming stuff and maybe do a cooking course for the local  cuisine.

Part's read like the "The Grand Budapest Hotel".

Sir Madam before you try to rush for your Taxi to the Airport as we are being invaded at this very moment could you take a moment to answer the check out questionnaire and did you use the MINI BAR?

Many thanks and just to remind you that the AIRPORT is currently under attack from Russian Air Borne troops and might we suggest you try the Train station instead..

Thank you for your Stay. Please come again after the War!

 

[Waltzing]

Great summary of world of a Commander in Chief of a disappearing army...

"Where are my Legions" comes to mind..

We all know this one right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Teutoburg_Forest

Well .... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/15/vladimir-putin-is-retreating-into-dangerous-fantasies/

Where are my Battle Groups ...

my Tanks, where are my Tanks...

And to think maybe Social Media was his down fall after all..

All those pictures of Flying Tank Turrets..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiybJ8UuHXA...

[Waltzing]

If it Works they will BUY IT!!!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/15/israel-hypersonic-air-defence-system-russia-iran-missiles/

[Waltzing]

There are a lot of very big explosions going on in the CTFO....

Maybe the KM lost more than 52 tanks last week... juat saying...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbMMzre09NU

The grand evil master appears to be having trouble finding a story for this little misadventure and maybe he knowns; feels the story and the fact are not going to aligning up.

Is the new world of international Law now dead? So some are now saying and is it the slow train wreck for the United Nations.

[BlackPeter]

There are a lot of very big explosions going on in the CTFO....

Maybe the KM lost more than 52 tanks last week... juat saying...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbMMzre09NU

The grand evil master appears to be having trouble finding a story for this little misadventure and maybe he knowns; feels the story and the fact are not going to aligning up.

Is the new world of international Law now dead? So some are now saying and is it the slow train wreck for the United Nations.

International Law? I recon Putin, Xi, the murderous Saudi crown prince, Erdogan, The UK Ex Prime Boris and the US Ex president Trump are treating any (not just international) law as a joke. The hard right all over the planet is laughing at the law and breaking it front left and centre. 

Just funny that some of them come with a law and order agenda, but I guess this just shows how dumb their supporters are.

But yes, the UN obviously are a joke, as any organisation would be where you give the worst crooks the ability to veto anything. Peacekeeping is not so easy if you allow the top villain to steal, rape and murder wherever they please and at the same time allow them to control the peace keepers.

[Waltzing]

In the Front  Line Tanks ...

These guys  give accounts of the failed attacked above where there armour ran into mines.

"Misha reports that the night-vision capabilities of the Leopards makes it easy for him to see the Russians. He uses fragmentation munitions. "I just aim at a tree and pieces of shrapnel fly everywhere. And down below in the trench, everyone's dead," he says."

Looks like some A6's have been provided not just A4's.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/on-the-front-in-ukraine-going-into-battle-in-a-leopard-2-tank-a-9baffb53-1e5b-4a18-8ec5-173d067721af

[Waltzing]

How far down the Rabbit hole has Putin Gone ...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/apr/05/putin-pathologically-afraid-for-his-life-says-russian-defector-video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAh9mbw1J68

When Dictators take command of their armies they get rid of there best commanders.

Hilter appointed Paulus to take Crimea. It was down hill from there and will Putin make the same mistakes if things start to go really wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Paulus

AT that point he maybe should have given https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Model the main role in defending retreats instead of trying to hold the oil fields. Instead the Russian had the invasion plans of the oil fields but Stalin ignored the plans!!!!

Georgy Zhukov had been side lined by stalin...

Can the Uke's now take advantage of the Labyrinth of problems that KM politics creates for its self or will the lack of equipment and air cover simply mean we have a long long journey ahead to get rid of this festering evil empire and a danger to OUR WAY OF LIFE.


 

[Waltzing]

Appear russian Attack Helicopters are making life hard for the UKE's in the SOUTH.

Is this where A10's, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_AH-64_Apache  and F16 combined would have been useful...

One BBC commentator says old F16 arnt up to the JOB... lets wait and see but it looks like the UKE's dont own the DAY yet...

[Waltzing]

Drinking in Russia ... what? drunks with fingers on the button...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/18/kremlin-officials-vodka-alcohol-ukraine-russia-war-stress/

[Waltzing]

From the K capital ..

https://kyivindependent.com/

And from London,,,,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/16/kyiv-under-bombardment-as-african-leaders-visit-on-peace-mi/

Ukraine troops operating in BAK BUK MUT... Do the country proud..

https://kyivindependent.com/counteroffensive-underway-one-captured-position-at-a-time/