SKT - Sky Network Television

[Mysterion]

Warner Bros. Discovery plans 2023 launch for new combined HBO Max, Discovery+ streaming service

https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/warner-bros-discovery-plans-2023-launch-new-combined-hbo-max-discovery-streaming-service

expected to roll out in the U.S. in the summer of 2023. Launches in Latin America will come later in the fall of 2023, followed by rollouts in Europe in early 2024 and APAC in mid-2024, with new European markets targeted for the fall of 2024.

[Mysterion]

It's likely the current Warner deal signed in August 2021 was a 3 year deal. See below:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/378056/353392.pdf

Therefore Warner likely won't renew in 2024 and will then roll out it's own service.

Neon will likely be ghost town or price would have to be less than half!

Rugby deal renews end of 2024 (I think) given it was a 5 year deal before.

Therefore 2024 seems like the end of the road for Sky!

It needs to be taken over sometime before then!

[Mysterion]

I believe this is why the board wanted MediaWorks.

Ie, make the advertising model a way to survive!

No rugby, no HBO, just freeview, Jones TV and some other third party content that only an 85 year old lady would watch. Then mix this in with a bunch of TV adds/Billboard Ads/Radio ads etc!!



Instead investors wanted a cash return, not knowing that the result will kill the company in 2024!!

[Mysterion]

I think this is why the board is holding onto more cash

1. Pay for increased content cost.
2. But also to have larger cash pile to increase their bid for rugby rights in 2025 and also to have enough money to buy other content that's not owned by Warner.

Likely results is that there won't be much left for dividends. Hence the downgrade from brokers.

Only plus side is that they have 1m customer relationships and the infrastructure in place (TV boxes) and customer service/employee base. Ideal for large overseas company to buy them and grow inorganically.

[mistaTea]

It's likely the current Warner deal signed in August 2021 was a 3 year deal. See below:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/378056/353392.pdf

Therefore Warner likely won't renew in 2024 and will then roll out it's own service.

Neon will likely be ghost town or price would have to be less than half!

Rugby deal renews end of 2024 (I think) given it was a 5 year deal before.

Therefore 2024 seems like the end of the road for Sky!

It needs to be taken over sometime before then!

Yes, second half of next year is going to be a big one for negotiations of some key contracts I think.

Big risk. I am surprised the SP is still as high as it is tbh.

[Mysterion]

Yes, second half of next year is going to be a big one for negotiations of some key contracts I think.

Big risk. I am surprised the SP is still as high as it is tbh.

I don't think PK or John over at OP has any idea what's going on.

PK living in a bubble in Singapore, John over in states. Even Jupitar are UK based.

Seriously, all the large investors are asleep!



I suspect ACC will be the first to figure this out. They sold down some back in March.

Just need to wait for them to sell down to below 5% and watch teh stock collapse



I might be back to pick up the crumbs, takeover should happen soon after. Could be an easy double up!!!

[Mysterion]

2.23

[mistaTea]

2.23

Anything above $2/share is overpriced right now in my view.

You would have to say I got out at a 'relatively' good price given the tight spot Sky have gotten themselves in now.

[Mysterion]

Anything above $2/share is overpriced right now in my view.

You would have to say I got out at a 'relatively' good price given the tight spot Sky have gotten themselves in now.

It appears you only know how to sell stocks, not buy them!

[mistaTea]

It appears you only know how to sell stocks, not buy them!

Buy high and sell low baby!

It's the only way to guarantee 'dem gainz'... for your broker...

[mistaTea]

It appears you only know how to sell stocks, not buy them!

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?"

 - John Maynard Keynes

[Mysterion]

NZD keeps dropping

~$400m MC - $70m cash return = $330m MC X 0.59 USD rate = USD $194m

Subtract another NZD $69m cash on the books puts the enterprise value at only USD $153m

This stock is cheap BUT ONLY to someone who actually owns programming content, ie NZRU/Silverlake commercial arm or WBD.

It's actually a unique situation, in which the current owners (investors) are unable to unlock any value.

It's like a leasehold apartment. The land owner makes dem gainz and the owner of the building is left with worthless pieces of concrete and wood.

Been over a year since Jarden was appointed to evaluate takeover approaches. Article says 12 months of previous takeover attempts. So that's two years of nothing!!

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/heather-du-plessis-allan-drive/audio/arie-dekker-sky-tv-and-spark-sport-face-more-competition-as-former-flags-big-changes/

Bowman going on about how the company is undervalued...JUST LOL!!!

Bowman added, "With the capital structure now stabilised, a strong position in the NZ market, and a revitalised strategy, the board does not believe the current share price reflects the underlying value of the company."

FACT = COMPANY WILL DIE IN 2024. Clock is ticking!

[Mysterion]

[Perky]

Best laugh this week Mysterion. It's a concrete bunker on fire.
discl. Small shareholder

[mistaTea]

Best laugh this week Mysterion. It's a concrete bunker on fire.
discl. Small shareholder

Fire caused from all the cash they are burning...