SKT - Sky Network Television

[Mysterion]

Whichever you you try to read that...it does not bode particularly well for sky.

Sophie has pointed out the big advertising market - over $3B.

Well, Warner-discovery will go after that too and any relationship they keep with sky ongoing will be favourable to them and not Sky.

Sky have no bargaining power now and will just be lucky to get any deal to ensure neon can retain some relevance.

Not good. Not good at all.

To me it reads as if WBD is going to buy Sky.

Why pull all the content from Neon when you can just buy Sky!

After the cash return Sky does look attractive.

It just comes down to Sophie convincing the larger holders to accept a lower price or the alternative would be that WBD will crush sky anyway. That's why I think a takeover will happen, just a question for when and how much (or little).

As the previous poster pointed out "Buying stock on the main premise of their being a potential takeover target is a fool's game".

[mistaTea]

To me it reads as if WBD is going to buy Sky.

LOLLLLL!!!!

They own TV3 and so are able to cater for the dwindling audience that like linear TV (and get a chunk of advertising revenue in the process).

Sky tv will be lucky to get a co-exclusive deal from them.

The idea that Warner-discovery would have any interest in forking our hundreds of millions of dollars to buy sky is just laughable mate.

They don't need sky - and the market cap would need to drop considerably more than $70M after the cash return before anyone could consider buying sky as a bargain that is too good and opportunity to pass up.

Warner might have done a JV with sky a couple years back whereby they would become a cornerstone investor.

But they are now merged with discovery, and own TV3 mate. And there is also potential regulatory issues around merging tv3 with sky. Not saying that can't be overcome, but it is a risk when you are considering these deals.

I do think sky will get taken out one day. But it will be more of a bail out - not because someone can see enormous growth potential from the current market valuation.

[Mysterion]

LOLLLLL!!!!

They own TV3 and so are able to cater for the dwindling audience that like linear TV (and get a chunk of advertising revenue in the process).

Sky tv will be lucky to get a co-exclusive deal from them.

The idea that Warner-discovery would have any interest in forking our hundreds of millions of dollars to buy sky is just laughable mate.

They don't need sky - and the market cap would need to drop considerably more than $70M after the cash return before anyone could consider buying sky as a bargain that is too good and opportunity to pass up.

Warner might have done a JV with sky a couple years back whereby they would become a cornerstone investor.

But they are now merged with discovery, and own TV3 mate. And there is also potential regulatory issues around merging tv3 with sky. Not saying that can't be overcome, but it is a risk when you are considering these deals.

I do think sky will get taken out one day. But it will be more of a bail out - not because someone can see enormous growth potential from the current market valuation.

There were "multiple" parties interested in TV3 when it came up for sale.

Granted, it only sold for ~$20m but it hard hardly any earnings. Still losing money today according to current accounts.

Sky is a good buy (at the right price and time).

WBD at the moment is having a difficult time as they merge the two entities. THey do have lots of debt but next year if rates go down they could be looking for investment opportunities.

Bro! You know it's gonna happen. You should have hanged in there a bit longer! Your too impatient, worrying about dividends and sh*t! Nobody cares about that, it's all about dem gainz! Greater fool theory is the only way to make money!!

Get back in after the cap return bro!

[mistaTea]

I reckon sky will continue to drop until it is around $250M.

That would represent an 8% yield on the mid point divvy range for next year.

And given sky do not have a compelling growth story, as well as the big risks at the moment with some key contracts coming up for renewal...you would have to say that $250M post capital return is fair value. Anything above that is irrational optimism.

All things considered, Mr Market is actually being very kind to sky tv right now.

If the SP falls sub $200M you might get a bailout offer from PE. But I can't see sky getting more than $250M - $300M range.

The $400M opening bid a couple of years back looks pretty good right now! Deal probably would have closed at $450M ($2.58 per share) and everyone would have been paid 18 months ago (and could have reinvested that money elsewhere for dem gainz).

[Mysterion]

I reckon sky will continue to drop until it is around $250M.

That would represent an 8% yield on the mid point divvy range for next year.

And given sky do not have a compelling growth story, as well as the big risks at the moment with some key contracts coming up for renewal...you would have to say that $250M post capital return is fair value. Anything above that is irrational optimism.

All things considered, Mr Market is actually being very kind to sky tv right now.

If the SP falls sub $200M you might get a bailout offer from PE. But I can't see sky getting more than $250M - $300M range.

The $400M opening bid a couple of years back looks pretty good right now! Deal probably would have closed at $450M ($2.58 per share) and everyone would have been paid 18 months ago (and could have reinvested that money elsewhere for dem gainz).

I love how MistaTea's pronouns used to be "we" for the last 5 years and now it's "you".

[mistaTea]

I love how MistaTea's pronouns used to be "we" for the last 5 years and now it's "you".

Yes very humorous.

But in terms of the actual points I raised - what say ye?

[Mysterion]

Yes very humorous.

But in terms of the actual points I raised - what say ye?

[LoungeLizard]

Strikes me that trying to second guess what may happen with Sky is a bit like being, in the words of Rowan Atkinson, "the blind man, in the dark room, looking for the black cat - that isn't there."
The SP at times, looks manipulated. No-one really knows what the Board is up to one week to the next. Long term strategy? Who knows. Potential suitors? Who knows. What will SKY be worth after the capital return? Anyone's guess. Will the capital return actually happen this side of xmas or like the mythical new set-top box, be delayed (again)?
The market hates uncertainty and that's why the market hates SKY atm. Meanwhile the Board fiddle around with the pressing issue of a 100 staff's free subscriptions. Have pity on those of us who still have skin in the game

[Mysterion]

Strikes me that trying to second guess what may happen with Sky is a bit like being, in the words of Rowan Atkinson, "the blind man, in the dark room, looking for the black cat - that isn't there."
The SP at times, looks manipulated. No-one really knows what the Board is up to one week to the next. Long term strategy? Who knows. Potential suitors? Who knows. What will SKY be worth after the capital return? Anyone's guess. Will the capital return actually happen this side of xmas or like the mythical new set-top box, be delayed (again)?
The market hates uncertainty and that's why the market hates SKY atm. Meanwhile the Board fiddle around with the pressing issue of a 100 staff's free subscriptions. Have pity on those of us who still have skin in the game

The above = trading opportunity

Now's not the time though.

Buy depth looks terrible!

[mistaTea]

To be fair, that probably is the only strategy anyone actually needs to follow...

[mistaTea]

I imagine this would have been Bogle's reaction if he knew I read his book and still tried to be Charlie Munger anyway.

[Mysterion]

I imagine this would have been Bogle's reaction if he knew I read his book and still tried to be Charlie Munger anyway.

What's your reaction to being down $40k while Handley is up $60k on his Sky investment??

[mistaTea]

What's your reaction to being down $40k while Handley is up $60k on his Sky investment??

He is much smarter than me. Clearly.

[Mysterion]

https://www.screenscribe.net/sky-to-launch-sky-pod/

What is this?

[Mysterion]

https://www.screenscribe.net/sky-box-and-sky-pod-update/