FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[winner (n)]

Cheers winner for this update. Interesting chart. P/E ratio looks stellar. Will we seeing a double Top?

Hope not BP

Retrace from double top could mean share price heading back to around $25

[BlackPeter]

Hope not BP

Retrace from double top could mean share price heading back to around $25

... which would make it much more affordable - though still not a bargain ;

[Gerald]

Interesting article: https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/fast-growers-are-common-fast-compounders

Basically shows if you expect any company to grow at 10% for the long term, these companies don't really exist. Always tricky when the price you are paying implies that this growth is a certainty.

[Left Field]

(From the best investments thread..).....given  the NZ$ at new lows compared to the US$ (and this likely to remain so for at least 2025, (depending on Trump's economic success or failures,) then I suspect NZ companies that earn a significant part of their income in $USD will out-perform in 2025.

IFT, GTK and FPH look 'well positioned' and relatively low risk with the current USD strength in mind (but perhaps less so if you are purchasing at today's SP, rather than having acquired slowly and steadily at lower share prices over the last few years.)

JMHO. DYOR.

Crikey, Winner might even be agreeing with me... (FPH up $1.00 last  Friday.)

(From the other channel....)

Close Report - Market leader Fisher and Paykel Healthcare rose $1.05 or 2.77% to $38.90, its second-highest close. The medical devices manufacturer, which has a 15% weighting on the NZX, touched $39.21 on November 25

No doubt falling NZD helping as well

Looking forward to 40 bucks ...next week?

[Hectorplains]

Crikey, Winner might even be agreeing with me... (FPH up $1.00 last  Friday.)

(From the other channel....)

Close Report - Market leader Fisher and Paykel Healthcare rose $1.05 or 2.77% to $38.90, its second-highest close. The medical devices manufacturer, which has a 15% weighting on the NZX, touched $39.21 on November 25

No doubt falling NZD helping as well

Looking forward to 40 bucks ...next week?

Aroha mai for pooping on the party but Trump is a two side coin.  He poses a risk to FPH with immediate threats (from 20 Jan) of tariffs on Mexico and China.  FPH has two manufacturing facilities in Tijuana and another in Guangzhou.  Trump said he would sign an order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican imports and an "additional" 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods on the first day of his administration. How much of this comes to pass is anyone's guess, we shall soon see thou'.

[Basil]

Aroha mai for pooping on the party but Trump is a two side coin.  He poses a risk to FPH with immediate threats (from 20 Jan) of tariffs on Mexico and China.  FPH has two manufacturing facilities in Tijuana and another in Guangzhou.  Trump said he would sign an order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican imports and an "additional" 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods on the first day of his administration. How much of this comes to pass is anyone's guess, we shall soon see thou'.

You should know better than to question what could possibly go wrong with buying market darling companies on humungous PE ratio's   (123 times from Jarden's website).  Disc: Kingfish have quite a few and I have quite a few Kingfish.  Hope they know what they're doing 

[Left Field]

Anything possible under Trump.....and all possibilities pure speculation at this stage.

Would Trump include 'essential' medical supplies in speculated tariffs?

Could FPH switch origin of USA exports from Mexico to NZ to avoid/mitigate tariffs?

Could FPH grow it's Chinese production & Asian sales to offset any USA restrictions?

Anything is possible....all is speculation... including Lord Basil's prediction for FPH to go below $15..... lol.

[Basil]

LOL you really are getting desperate to be top dog digging back to predictions made in a downcycle many years ago.

[BlackPeter]

Anything possible under Trump.....and all possibilities pure speculation at this stage.

Would Trump include 'essential' medical supplies in speculated tariffs?

Could FPH switch origin of USA exports from Mexico to NZ to avoid/mitigate tariffs?

Could FPH grow it's Chinese production & Asian sales to offset any USA restrictions?

Anything is possible....all is speculation... including Lord Basil's prediction for FPH to go below $15..... lol.

Sure - anything is possible in a market run by fear and greed.

At this stage FPH's backward PE (10 years) is 93.5 - i.e. they need to accumulate nearly hundred years of last decades average earnings to pay back their current share price. What an investment! FOMO happy to pay whatever the cost, but when the bubble bursts, things might change fast.

Just curious - what future earnings growth rate do holders assume? Current EPS CAGR for FPH was in average 2.6% p.a. over the past decade. OK - its a positive number, but not really a big number - and to justify the current price they would need to more than 10-fold their annual earnings growth.

Are current holders really just all dancing very close to a very large exit? Must be quite a spectacle when the party stops.

[Ferg]

Current EPS CAGR for FPH was in average 2.6% p.a. over the past decade.

Where did you get 2.6% from?

P.S.  Is that based on reported NPAT for 2024 that included the one-off write down of property by $98m?

[winner (n)]

FPH back on trend after the recent bonus years during pandemic as per chart

So I'd say looking forward no matter what's thrown at them a good guess would be profits should grow at about 12% pa ...like it has in the past

You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

Nice image Winner and food for thought for the bulls, for sure.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCARE--6492630/finances/

Trades on 61 times average analyst expectations for FY25 profit.  In the two years following that I note expectations are for eps growth of 24% and 21%.  Consensus rating is hold but I note the average price target one year hence is just $34.80, (suggests fair value now is about $32), so it's fair to say analysts think at the current price FPH has got well ahead of fair value. 

[winner (n)]

FPH PE over the years shown below

Current PE is 74 based on rolling 12 months profit (normalised) pf $310m as at Sep24

Expectations are for $358m which reduces PE to high 60's if met

Take from this What you want

You cannot view this attachment.

[winner (n)]

Reached all time high of $39.50 at 1.45pm  and I thought yippee $40 by end I'd day

Must have given market a big fright ..DOWN 3.4% since then

[Basil]

From your most insightful chart above it looks like the average PE over the last 10 years is about 39 noting also It would be considerably lower if you averaged out data from years earlier than that.  Deserves a premium PE multiple but 39 makes a lot more sense to me than what the market is currently ascribing it.  Well covered by 12 analysts and average expected eps for FY25 is 61.56 cps. Apply a 39 multiple to that = $24. Hmmm

Trump just imposed a 25% tariff on all goods entering the US from Mexico.