FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[Left Field]

Good chart Ferg.....thanks

I suspect FPH would argue it confirms what they have been saying, ie FPH claim they reduced margins in Covid times (paid more for urgent freight etc)  in order to meet high demand and supply many new customers. FPH are saying they now have a lot more loyal customers using their products as a result, and are now moving to restore margins.

FPH also expanded capacity to keep up with demand during this period with new plants in Mexico and NZ etc.

If FPH are right with their long term view, then your RH column 'lows' should start bouncing up from FY25..... we shall soon see .....

Your next chart will be v interesting.

[winner (n)]

Good work there Ferg .... Very interesting

And as Leftie says an update next year hopefully will see all lines going up


Hint .... If you used the Insert function when adding charts they appear in the post itself and much more dramatic (and bigger) to view. It's in the drop down bit by the trash can.

[Left Field]

Latest update.... plus an upgrade.....margins improving.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436696

At 31 July exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the first half of the 2025 financial year include a continuation of the current trading environment and result in revenue in the range of approximately $940 million to $950 million, and net profit after tax in the range of approximately $150 million to $160 million. At the midpoints of first half guidance, this would equate to 18% growth in reported operating revenue and 44% growth in reported net profit after tax, compared to the first half of the 2024 financial year.
 
 Outlook for the 2025 financial year
 The full year guidance previously provided in May was for operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $310 million to $360 million.
 
 At 31 July exchange rates*, the company continues to expect full year operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and now expects full year net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $320 million to $370 million.


On the other channel Winner says "$37 soon".......... I'm making no predictions, just a good solid happy hold for me. Onwards and upwards.
Up over $1 to $33.20 in early trading. Naaice.

[Shareguy]

Nice.

Currently at $33.35

2024 actual eps $.45 so a trailing PE of 74


2025 Craig's forecast 2025 eps $.60 =PE of 56

[BlackPeter]

Latest update.... plus an upgrade.....margins improving.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436696

At 31 July exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the first half of the 2025 financial year include a continuation of the current trading environment and result in revenue in the range of approximately $940 million to $950 million, and net profit after tax in the range of approximately $150 million to $160 million. At the midpoints of first half guidance, this would equate to 18% growth in reported operating revenue and 44% growth in reported net profit after tax, compared to the first half of the 2024 financial year.
 
 Outlook for the 2025 financial year
 The full year guidance previously provided in May was for operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $310 million to $360 million.
 
 At 31 July exchange rates*, the company continues to expect full year operating revenue to be in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and now expects full year net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $320 million to $370 million.


On the other channel Winner says "$37 soon".......... I'm making no predictions, just a good solid happy hold for me. Onwards and upwards.
Up over $1 to $33.20 in early trading. Naaice.

Hmm - if I use their latest earnings forecast (which actually is pretty close to what the analysts predicted anyway), that's a medium of 59 cents EPS for FY25, which results (at todays SP) in a PE of 55.

Of course, I hear everybody talking about the amazing growth rates. While their revenue grew over the last 10 years with a CAGR of 10.8 (not bad ...) their earnings CAGR (and lets face it, this  is the only growth indicator which matters) was only 2.6% pa. Not that flash for a growth company, is it? But of course - the future will be different than the past, much brighter. Our (always) optimistic analysts predict a 5.5% earnings CAGR for the 10 year time window from year +3 to year -7. Better than the past (if it comes true), but does this really justify a PE of 55? You are the judge.

I see it as an amazing example for PE expansion. The only question is - when will the expansion stop and what happens after that point in time?

Discl: watching with patience and interest ...

[Left Field]

Agree with BP and Shareguy the inflated PE is a key risk.

The ASX reaction is more important than the NZX opening IMO.......interesting times.

[winner (n)]

Agree with BP and Shareguy the inflated PE is a key risk.

The ASX reaction is more important than the NZX opening IMO.......interesting times.

Going gangbusters on ASX

[Basil]

Nice upgrade but I share concerns about the forward PE.  Nevertheless, its Kingfish's biggest holding with 18% so good for their NTA which makes me happy. 

[Left Field]

Latest update.... plus an upgrade.....margins improving......

.....On the other channel Winner says "$37 soon".......... I'm making no predictions, just a good solid happy hold for me. Onwards and upwards.....

Last week the FPH SP reached a 12 month high.

In the last 12 months FPH has gained 74% in SP appreciation alone.

However some are concerned about FPH's high PE.

Some holding FPH seized the opportunity to buy or add more FHP at the recent 2022 lows in the  $19 and $20's. This helps mitigate recent high PE fears.

High PE fears are nothing new for FPH. Even during the 2022 SP 'lows' I recall one noted posted saying FHP was overpriced with a high PE. (The poster thought FPH was then only a buy if the SP dropped to $14.00)

The attached 10yr  logarithmic SP chart for FPH is a chart of great beauty and implies that apart from the Covid highs/lows, FPH SP is back on a healthy long term trend. (NOTE: The trend is even more impressive if compared to NZX50.)

GLH's.

[Left Field]

Nicely above Winner's prediction of $37..... and much interest on the ASX today around (and above) the $NZ 37.60 mark.... bodes well.

[Left Field]

New Apple Watch has sleep apnea detection.......increased awareness is good for FHP.

Health is always a major area of focus for the Apple Watch, and that's no different this year. Sleep apnea detection is coming to the watch through a new metric that can pick up potential breathing disturbances overnight. You'll be able to view nightly values in the health app, and the Apple Watch will analyze your breathing disturbances every 30 days and notify you if it finds consistent signs of moderate to severe sleep apnea. Apple says it expects FDA clearance for the feature soon.

The announcement comes after Samsung introduced sleep apnea detection to its smartwatches earlier this year, further underscoring how smartwatches are becoming powerful health-tracking devices.

[Left Field]

Winner found this quote in an article from Business Week and I liked it.....ssoo here it is:

Call it the revenge of the real economy but after what seemed like years when "new economy" stocks – typically software or internet-linked stocks boasting great ideas but negligible revenues – achieved stellar valuations, slowly but surely, old economy stocks are fighting back.

Take Xero and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.

Some months back, Xero's sharemarket worth far outdistanced F&P Healthcare, yet the medical equipment leader is now on the cusp of besting the sharemarket value accorded to the global accounting software outfit.

Among the top 150 companies listed on the ASX, at the end of March, Xero was ranked No 26, with a market value of A$20.3 billion (NZ$22b), with F&P Healthcare trailing far behind, coming in at 38, with a value at A$13.8b (NZ$15b).

They were ranked well ahead of the next largest New Zealand company, Mercury Energy, which stood at 63 with an A$8.9b (NZ$9.6b) valuation. Spark and Infratil were ranked number 69 and 70 respectively.

By the end of last week, that gap between Xero and F&P Healthcare had all but disappeared, with Xero holding steady at 26 on the list of top 150 stocks, with a value of A$21.7b (NZ$23.6b), with F&P Healthcare ranked next, with a value of A$20.7b (NZ$22.5b).

A nice read for FPH holders.

[Left Field]

Big crossing of over 1.5 mill shares at all time high of $39.29 today.

FPH benefiting from index rebalancing........Interesting times.....  next update due on Thursday 28 Nov.

[winner (n)]

Updated this stuff for FPH

NPAT back on  long term trend of the mad times during and post covid

One term profit (and sales) growth has been 12% pa

Currently on PE about 70 ...market seems to think 40 is about fair over time ...hmmm

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[BlackPeter]

Cheers winner for this update. Interesting chart. P/E ratio looks stellar. Will we seeing a double Top?