FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[Breezy]

Like a BMW M5 Competition V8 engine making 620 horsepower. 

Time to install a rev limiter about now id say.

[KW]

RMD just got monkey hammered today, after Eli Lilly posted an update on their GLP drugs for sleep apnoea.  I dont know if FPH is as directly affected, but keep an eye out for any sustained selling.
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-tirzepatide-reduced-obstructive-sleep-apnea-osa-severity

[Left Field]

RMD just got monkey hammered today, after Eli Lilly posted an update on their GLP drugs for sleep apnoea.  I dont know if FPH is as directly affected, but keep an eye out for any sustained selling.
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lillys-tirzepatide-reduced-obstructive-sleep-apnea-osa-severity

Thanks KW.

This pill is likely to be a game changer for Lily....particularly in its weight loss scenarios.

However, while FPH's SP is currently down some 6% on recent highs around $31.50, the longer term effect on FPH is yet to be determined, particularly as the Sleep Apnea market these days accounts for only 30-35% of FPH's revenue, and news of 'weight loss drugs' effects on the sleep apnea market have been around for some time. 

Increased attention to the issues of Sleep Apnea via promotion of these drug solutions has also been cited as expanding the overall sleep apnea market to the benefit of FPH!??

In addition, in recent times FPH has been busy strengthening its Hospital product group which includes products used in invasive ventilation, noninvasive ventilation, high flow therapy, anaesthesia, and laparoscopic and open surgery. These products apparently account for slightly over 60% of FPH's revenue (source FY24 AR) and "help healthcare providers improve patient outcomes, with economic benefits by reducing the need to escalate care and shortening patient stays in hospital."

That said, investors should watch these drug treatment developments carefully and your heads-up is appreciated.

( ....and happy I took some FPH profits off the table last week nicely above $31.00 to fund my IFT cap raise allocation.)

[Left Field]

Further to the above post.... Kiora on the other channel posts research confirming the positive nature of weight loss pills on the sleep apnea market.

For those investors that are worrying about weight loss drugs impacting sales.
With all the news about them it has lead to an increase in health consultations.These lead to health programmes that also include treatment for obstructive sleep apnea.
The overall affect for FPH sleep apnea products:Positive


https://www.pewresearch.org/science/...ty-in-the-u-s/

[Left Field]

Samsung released its 2024 new range of phones today which included Galaxy Watch Ultra and Watch 7 with sleep apnea detection...... increasing awareness going to be good for FPH.

https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/samsungs-jam-packed-galaxy-unpacked-galaxy-ring-z-fold-6-and-all-the-new-products-announced/

[Left Field]

Nice close at $31.68....a 12 month high and on decent volumes.

[Breezy]

Wow nearly $33 now and seriously overvalued, just dabble with small amounts in the mornings at these levels, got absolutely smashed last time it was around this price with a good sized holding. As the song says, she's a little bit dangerous.

[Left Field]

Wow nearly $33 now and seriously overvalued, just dabble with small amounts in the mornings at these levels, got absolutely smashed last time it was around this price with a good sized holding. As the song says, she's a little bit dangerous.

You're not the first person to say FPH is overvalued..... nor will you be the last.

They say the same things about XRO too.

At the moment NZD $ exchange rate is helping things and the SP has been as high as $37.50 previously.

Until we get the next update it's all speculation.

[Breezy]

You're not the first person to say FPH is overvalued..... nor will you be the last.

They say the same things about XRO too.

At the moment NZD $ exchange rate is helping things and the SP has been as high as $37.50 previously.

Until we get the next update it's all speculation.

I know this stock pretty well and have learnt from previous experiences that when you don't vacate the kitchen when its getting too hot you get serious burns. Long term no problem but after the last 4 yrs I've had im very adverse to 3rd degree burns now.
On the analyst front out of 8 analysts only 1 rates it a buy with an avg tp of $25.95 over the 8.

[Left Field]

FPH not listening to you Breezy

200 k at $33.00 late today........ (just saying)

[Breezy]

FPH not listening to you Breezy

200 k at $33.00 late today........ (just saying)

Index funds buying, they win some and they also lose just as often. They won't mind if it heads back to $31 next week but I would.

[BlackPeter]

FPH not listening to you Breezy

200 k at $33.00 late today........ (just saying)

I guess we all know that markets tend to be bipolar. Either they are over the top, or they are depressed. Some (probably most) people follow the moods of the market - if Mr Market is paying too much they are happy and buy more, and if Mr. Market is paying too little they are depressed and sell.

Which means it makes no sense at all to use market transactions as evidence for stock value. They are just evidence for the current market mood. Just look at cryptocurrencies - they are worth nothing and there are still punters out there following every brain fart of Mr. Crypto-Market.

But hey, I know, we all love confirmation by the mighty and infallible Mr Market.

Personally I see long term value in a combination of NTA and earnings potential. Obviously - NTA for FPH is irrelevant (and negligible), and the earnings potential is up to everybody's best guess. However - I'd encourage you to just put into your favourite value formulas (e.g. Grahams) todays earnings and then try how large the earnings growth must be to justify the current SP. You will end up with a really big number for Growth CAGR. Really big.

Hint: Currently the Earnings CAGR (10 years back) of FPH is at 2.6% pa. Better than nothing, but not really amazing.

If you want to get an earnings CAGR justifying the current SP, it would need to be at least around 50 ... this is 20 times the current CAGR.

Good luck with that ;

But no doubt - Mr. Market knows better, until he changes his mood - and than he still knows better

[Left Field]

Another strong close.... over 200k shares at $33.10

( Just saying..... again.)

[Breezy]

Another strong close.... over 200k shares at $33.10

( Just saying..... again.)

Lol last time you highlighted this I commented about it going back to $31 odd the following week which it did, hold the hot potatoes lightly which can be a lot of fun.

[Ferg]

Here is a chart showing the evolution of EPS for FPH for the past 15 years.  EPS is deconstructed to 'Sales per share' multiplied by NPAT %.

Approx 14 year CAGRs:
 1. Sales per share 7.7%
 2. NPAT% -0.5%
 3. Number of shares 0.9%
 3a. EPS 7.2%
 4. SP multiple expansion 7.0%

From the graph sales per share is heading in the right direction, but the issue for Management and investors is converting those sales to profit.  Whilst sales have reverted to the long term trend, NPAT has not.  Share issues dilute holders by about 1% per year but this hasn't stopped a P/E multiple expansion of 7% per year since 2010.