FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[BlackPeter]

Reached all time high of $39.50 at 1.45pm  and I thought yippee $40 by end I'd day

Must have given market a big fright ..DOWN 3.4% since then

Just look at your PR ratio chart above. Might have been the peak and turn into a beautiful double top.

[BlackPeter]

King Dump started the Trade war in earnest.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-says-tariffs-are-coming-on-computer-chips-steel-and-more-cef9974c?mod=djem10point

(might be paywalled)

25% on everything coming from Mexico across the US border. Will be interesting to see, how this will impact on FPH's business (with product coming out of their Mexican factory into the US).

[winner (n)]

FPH PE multiple not so high now

[Waltzing]

YUP - trade war effects?

wait till someone starts shooting...

history people ...history..

what a dump ...shes a dumpy market now... who and what is next...

could there be a flight to property stocks?

[BlackPeter]

FPH PE multiple not so high now

True - with every down wave the historic PE will look better (though this is not certain for the forward PE - the E well might follow the P on the way down ;

Question is - how many down waves do we expect before Dumps trade war ends?

[Waltzing]

TRP's TF's are now off ... till next time...

just gave the SP a bit of a back down to earth...

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-tariffs-presidency-news-02-03-25/index.html

[Left Field]

FPH's response to USA Tariff's announced today.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449562

Today the United States announced new tariffs on products manufactured outside the US, including a 10% tariff on products manufactured in New Zealand.
 
In early March the US enacted a 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico that are not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Almost all Fisher & Paykel Healthcare products imported into the US from Mexico are currently compliant with the USMCA.
 
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare currently manufactures approximately 45% of its volume in Mexico and approximately 55% in New Zealand, and for the first half of the 2025 financial year approximately 43% of the company's revenue came from the US. Approximately 60% of the company's US volumes are supplied from Mexico and approximately 40% are supplied from New Zealand. The company's manufacturing facilities in both Mexico and New Zealand have spare capacity to increase volumes if required.
 
The company does not anticipate a material impact from the US tariffs on its net profit after tax for the 2025 financial year, which ended 31 March 2025.
 
For the 2026 financial year, the company's costs would likely increase due to the new tariffs, acknowledging the economic environment, global response to US tariffs and foreign currency movements may be fluid over this period.
 
The company continues to expect to reach its gross margin target through its long-standing continuous improvement activities across the entire business, coupled with efficient growth into existing infrastructure. US tariffs may add to that timeframe.
 
The company will provide an update on outlook for the 2026 financial year, as well as an updated estimate of the timeframe to return to its gross margin target, at its full year results at the end of May.

Seems the early traders overreacted today around $33.00  compared to a subsequent large trade at $35.11 ........ interesting.

[Left Field]

Wow, great result....holders will be v happy.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452357

Overview of key results for the 2025 financial year
 • 16% growth in operating revenue to $2.02 billion, 14% growth in constant currency.
 • 43% growth in underlying net profit after tax to $377.2 million, 30% growth in constant currency.
 • 18% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.28 billion, 16% growth in constant currency.
 • 20% revenue growth for new applications consumables, 18% growth in constant currency.
 • 13% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $739.9 million, 11% growth in constant currency.
 • 14% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 11% growth in constant currency.
 • Investment in R&D was 11% of revenue, or $226.9 million.
 • 2% increase in final dividend to 24.0 cps (2024: 23.5 cps).
 • 2% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 42.5 cps (2024: 41.5 cps).
 
 Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, "During the 2025 financial year, we stayed focused on the fundamentals of our business and we achieved strong results, with annual revenue of more than $2 billion for the first time in our history."
 
 Total operating revenue was a record $2.02 billion, an increase of 16% from the prior financial year, or 14% in constant currency. This was driven by broad-based growth in hospital consumables and double-digit growth in masks for treating obstructive sleep apnea.
 
 Net profit after tax for the financial year was $377.2 million, a 43% increase over the 2024 financial year, or 30% in constant currency. These growth rates are against underlying net profit after tax for the 2024 financial year, which excluded three abnormal items.

[Ferg]

A good result and holders will be happy indeed.

Some graphs based on this morning's report.

NPAT% has turned.  Eagle eyed investors will note 2024 excludes the property devaluation and deferred tax impact.  All other years are genuine NPAT, but nice to see profit percentage has increased.  Note the COVID blip to revenues in 2021 and FPH are have reverted back to the trend.

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FPH are fundamentally debt free:

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And it looks like FPH are backing into their P/E ratio:

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10 year CAGR's:
 ~ sales +11.6%
 ~ NPAT% +1.0%
 ~ share count +0.5%
 ~ EPS +12.2%
 ~ P/E multiple +4.9%
 ~ Share Price +17.7%

[BlackPeter]

Wow, great result....holders will be v happy.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452357

Overview of key results for the 2025 financial year
 • 16% growth in operating revenue to $2.02 billion, 14% growth in constant currency.
 • 43% growth in underlying net profit after tax to $377.2 million, 30% growth in constant currency.
 • 18% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.28 billion, 16% growth in constant currency.
 • 20% revenue growth for new applications consumables, 18% growth in constant currency.
 • 13% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $739.9 million, 11% growth in constant currency.
 • 14% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 11% growth in constant currency.
 • Investment in R&D was 11% of revenue, or $226.9 million.
 • 2% increase in final dividend to 24.0 cps (2024: 23.5 cps).
 • 2% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 42.5 cps (2024: 41.5 cps).
 
 Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, "During the 2025 financial year, we stayed focused on the fundamentals of our business and we achieved strong results, with annual revenue of more than $2 billion for the first time in our history."
 
 Total operating revenue was a record $2.02 billion, an increase of 16% from the prior financial year, or 14% in constant currency. This was driven by broad-based growth in hospital consumables and double-digit growth in masks for treating obstructive sleep apnea.
 
 Net profit after tax for the financial year was $377.2 million, a 43% increase over the 2024 financial year, or 30% in constant currency. These growth rates are against underlying net profit after tax for the 2024 financial year, which excluded three abnormal items.

Well, yes - good result, but doesn't change the fact that the share is more than fully priced.

Forward PE (3yrs) is 48, backward PE (10 years) is nearly 80 - and this is dear even considering the 8% forward earnings CAGR. Just looking at the market - it appears holders are not that happy - or do they all need to buy a deck at the same time?

Just noticed - SP just dropped below the MA200. Sure - early days (hours, minutes) - and might be just jitter, but then - it might not.

Discl: not holding, but would be prepared to pick some shares up around or below $18 ....

[Basil]

Illustrating BP's point, what is a fair PE for growth stocks ?
FPH ~ EPS +12.2% CAGR for the last decade per Ferg analysis and that's allegedly worth a PE of 50.
TRA ~ EPS 10% CAGR for the last decade per Ferg analysis and that's only worth a PE of 12.7

One or the other or probably both are being mispriced.  I do understand the total addressable market is bigger for FPH but TRA also has a long runway of growth ahead and has a far  more stable earnings growth profile over the last decade.

I'll stick to my favorite CAGR stocks.  This dog is value investor and believes compelling metrics matter !

[Ferg]

A fair question.  When looking at CAGR's for FPH, the shorter time frames of 10 years have higher numbers than for longer time frames.  For instance they first cracked $500m revenue in 2010 and it took them 9 years to double that to $1b.  It then took them 6 years to double that again to $2b.  I don't have enough data to make the same comparison for TRA.  With >10% CAGR on EPS, the P/E ratio is reduced by 10% or more compounding each year.....assuming no change in SP.

FPH spend a lot on R&D which is clearly paying off for them, and they are pretty much debt free.  Also consider the macro trend towards the use of managed funds.....by default a number of them will have to buy FPH given its size.

So I wouldn't wait for this to be below $20 to buy; it was last there in mid 2022 during the panic that followed the COVID share frenzy....you may need to see some sort of black swan event and over-reaction to see sub-$20 again given sales and profits are reverting back to the long term trend.

[Left Field]

One would hope that FPH are already on to this??

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/11/business/sleep-apnea-negative-pressure-spc

[Left Field]

Nice to see this institution taking a stake in FPH.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/455911

[Left Field]

Crickey had to go back 3 pages to locate FPH........Not loved on this forum?

Anyways, a good update today. Revenue climbing over $2.0 Billion etc.  FY 26 projections rather conservative, but that is the FPH way..... undersell and overdeliver. I expect future upgrades all being equal. FPH's big picture goal is to  double revenue every 5 - 6 years. Strong NPAT growth continues.

At 31 July exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the first half of the 2026 financial year include a continuation of the current trading environment and result in revenue of approximately $1.075 billion and net profit after tax of approximately $200 million. This would equate to approximately 13% growth in reported operating revenue and approximately 31% growth in reported net profit after tax, compared to the first half of the 2025 financial year.


Here's the link for today's meeting and update

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/457173