FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[Shareguy]

Have had this stock for a very long time and had a good sized free carry position.  A great company but agree with Waltzing and others that its priced for perfection currently.  Have sold the majority for hopefully better things.  Only time will tell.  I Don't like selling quality, but also good to lock in a profit. 

[Left Field]

Have had this stock for a very long time and had a good sized free carry position.  A great company but agree with Waltzing and others that its priced for perfection currently.  Have sold the majority for hopefully better things.  Only time will tell.  I Don't like selling quality, but also good to lock in a profit.

Nothing wrong with taking profits off the table.... (and good luck with HGH.)

Much depending on 29 May results and 2025 projections for FPH.

[BlackPeter]

Have had this stock for a very long time and had a good sized free carry position.  A great company but agree with Waltzing and others that its priced for perfection currently.  Have sold the majority for hopefully better things.  Only time will tell.  I Don't like selling quality, but also good to lock in a profit.

From a fundamental position a good decision, but SP is obviously strongly hype driven, and hype is not predictable.

Just played with my spreadsheet. Anybody paying current SP for FPH must assume a forward earnings CAGR of something like 50% to justify the price. This means earnings doubling from now every 18 months or so. That's a lot of for a company which used to grow their earnings in the past with an average of something like 12% p.a. (10 year window) i.e. past earnings doubled every 6 years or so ... but hey - some people say as well pigs can fly ;

Discl: happy to watch the SP development from the outside ;

[Left Field]

Improving margins, increased dividends and healthy 2025 outlook should keep holders happy......... however, it's all about how the market reacts.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431920

Overview of key results for the 2024 financial year
• 10% growth in operating revenue to $1.74 billion, 8% growth in constant currency.
• 6% growth in underlying** net profit after tax to $264.4 million, 5% growth in constant currency.
• 6% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.1 billion, 5% growth in constant currency.
• 15% revenue growth for new applications consumables, 13% growth in constant currency.
• 18% growth in Homecare operating revenue to $652.3 million, 16% growth in constant currency.
• 21% growth in OSA masks revenue, or 18% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 11% of revenue, or $198.2 million.
• 2% increase in final dividend to 23.5 cps (2023: 23.0 cps).
• 2% increase in total dividends for the financial year to 41.5 cps (2023: 40.5 cps).

Outlook for the 2025 financial year
At current exchange rates*, guidance assumptions for the 2025 financial year include no significant respiratory disease events, and result in full year operating revenue in the range of approximately $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion and net profit after tax in the range of approximately $310 million to
$360 million. The net profit after tax guidance assumes a further improvement in gross margin during the 2025 financial year. Capital expenditure for the 2025 financial year is expected to be approximately $150 million.

[Left Field]

Well the market seems to like it........ up 3.9% or $1.09

Heading north of $29.00 if the ASX close is an indication.

[Left Field]

Well the market seems to like it........ up 3.9% or $1.09
Heading north of $29.00 if the ASX close is an indication.

Big month end crossings of approx 2 mill shares at $29.50. Nice.

[Basil]

You had better ask Basil, his last call was $10-$15. If your asking me then about $24 and don't forget that this is a high P/E sector as the norm, its pretty close to a tech stock anyways.

As usual, you have such an incredibly selective memory and are "extremely" economical with the truth.  I actually called them a sell a very long time ago in the low $30's.  Yes at one point I thought they could get down as low as $15, think they got to $18 so I wasn't far off and they are still below where I made that original thirty something dollars sell call several years ago.   

[Breezy]

As usual, you have such an incredibly selective memory and are "extremely" economical with the truth.  I actually called them a sell a very long time ago in the low $30's.  Yes at one point I thought they could get down as low as $15, think they got to $18 so I wasn't far off and they are still below where I made that original thirty something dollars sell call several years ago.   

Left Field pulled you up quite some time ago where you put a $10 call on the stock so yeah.

[Basil]

I actually called them a sell a very long time ago in the low $30's.

Maybe you missed this bit.  Whether you believe me or not frankly I have better things to do than go trawling back through the FPH thread on the other channel to prove it.  Maybe you should have better things to do making derisory comments about others in case they start to recall some of your previous share price calls.  Have a lovely weekend MATE

[Breezy]

Maybe you missed this bit.

You made many calls as you often do so, nothing wrong with wrong calls as long as you own it.

[Basil]

You made many calls as you often do so, nothing wrong with wrong calls as long as you own it.

My big call on FPH was SELL when it was over $30 years ago.  Speculation on how low it could go was exactly that, just speculation.  I'm going to still resist mentioning some of your calls....for now.  Honestly, haven't you got something better to do on a long weekend that start trouble on here again?
Getting all smarmy just because the shares are up a bit lately is not very clever when they're still more than $5 below where they were four years ago!

[Breezy]

My big call on FPH was SELL when it was over $30 years ago.  Speculation on how low it could go was exactly that, just speculation.  I'm going to still resist mentioning some of your calls....for now.  Honestly, haven't you got something better to do on a long weekend that start trouble on here again?

Not intending anything, you quoted a post i made on May 4th which is nearly a month ago.

[Basil]

Because I just saw it.  Let's leave it at that.

[KW]

To be fair, FPH only got to $35 because it was a Covid fad stock.  Back when everyone thought respirators were required to save people from Covid, only to find out later that putting them on respirators was what killed them.  So the stock dropped back  to its pre-Covid levels.  Fortunately for FPH there is a surge of "excess deaths" occurring in the western world, so all those respirators FPH sold are still being used.  Always a silver lining eh?

The technicals look pretty good to me, I wouldnt be selling.  Its one of the few stocks still in a strong uptrend.  As Peter Lynch said, "water the flowers and cut the weeds".

[Left Field]

To be fair, FPH only got to $35 because it was a Covid fad stock.  Back when everyone thought respirators were required to save people from Covid, only to find out later that putting them on respirators was what killed them.  So the stock dropped back  to its pre-Covid levels.  Fortunately for FPH there is a surge of "excess deaths" occurring in the western world, so all those respirators FPH sold are still being used.  Always a silver lining eh?

The technicals look pretty good to me, I wouldnt be selling.  Its one of the few stocks still in a strong uptrend.  As Peter Lynch said, "water the flowers and cut the weeds".

This simple 10 yr chart highlights FPH's long trend and the Covid era abnormal 'glitch' 2020 to 2022.

Focus on the long term trend with a great NZ company.

People who bought more FPH in the recent lows are smiling....... Friday's SP of $29.50 up about $9.50 ( or 47%) on FPH  12 months ago.