Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

and dont forget the chemical and fertiliser products that go through the GAP...

Key details regarding freight and recipients:
Chemicals & Fertilizers: The region is a major exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers (urea, anhydrous ammonia) and sulfur. These are critical for global agriculture, with significant shipments going to various international markets, including the U.S..
Agricultural Goods: Raw cane sugar for the Dubai-based refinery, which is one of the world's largest, transits through the strait.
Energy Products: Roughly 15–20 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil and massive amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass through, heavily impacting the energy supplies of Asian nations.
Top Receiving Countries:
China & India: Combined, they received 44% of crude oil exports in 2025.
Japan & South Korea: Highly reliant on the oil and LNG flowing through this route.
Pakistan & Bangladesh: Highly dependent on LNG from Qatar and the UAE.
Global/Other: Europe and the U.S. are also impacted by price surges in fertilizers and energy, respectively, due to supply constraints.

[Waltzing]

and the French are back and where is the British Navy... stuck in dry dock or tied up the wharf.. what an embarrassment..

The french Amphibious ships are amongst the best of there class in the world..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/09/macron-unprecedented-naval-deployment-strait-of-hormuz-iran/

https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2026/france-deploys-tonnerre-amphibious-assault-ship-for-lebanon-evacuation-as-middle-east-crisis-grows

[Waltzing]

Get a look at this french beauty...

well we will soon get to see if it can survive in a battle space when is it able to protect itself against drones... or does it have a weak spot...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uoov8qse460

its all on people keeping the SH open will now test everyones tech...

and remember now they need Ukraine and the US needs Allies..

State department "who go that f*** list!!! who are our allies!!!!"

[Waltzing]

Q by Sir B: "Somethings just happened.  Just as I was posting about something else.....BREAKING NEWS on CNBC in a phone interview President Trump told CBS " the war could be over soon. I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. He added that the US is very far ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated timeframe.

West Texas oil now under $90, was nearly $120 yesterday. All the major indices, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq now positive on the day.
Brent crude now $92, was close to $120 yesterday.

Definitly a change in narrative from Trump which the market is interpreting in a positive way. Small encouragement and much needed.

Get out there today and walk your dog or something similar you enjoy.  What's happening could be over soon.  I hope you all have a better day than yesterday."

Iran has a say however as TRUMP panics... will they say enough also.. probably.. but will Iran now collapse into Civil war and that means its not a simple equation...

Still requires a HUGE presents of Military to escort the Tankers through the GULF...

The middle eastern country's just lost there business as usual as a safe haven and that is what they are saying themselves...


There are no safe flights paths to europe at the moment... big costs to air travel if the direct routes are no longer operating as Russian Airspace is closed...Turkey and greece benefits or Eqypt?

[BlackPeter]

Q by Sir B: "Somethings just happened.  Just as I was posting about something else.....BREAKING NEWS on CNBC in a phone interview President Trump told CBS " the war could be over soon. I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. He added that the US is very far ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated timeframe.

West Texas oil now under $90, was nearly $120 yesterday. All the major indices, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq now positive on the day.
Brent crude now $92, was close to $120 yesterday.

Definitly a change in narrative from Trump which the market is interpreting in a positive way. Small encouragement and much needed.

Get out there today and walk your dog or something similar you enjoy.  What's happening could be over soon.  I hope you all have a better day than yesterday."

Iran has a say however as TRUMP panics... will they say enough also.. probably.. but will Iran now collapse into Civil war and that means its not a simple equation...

Still requires a HUGE presents of Military to escort the Tankers through the GULF...

The middle eastern country's just lost there business as usual as a safe haven and that is what they are saying themselves...


There are no safe flights paths to europe at the moment... big costs to air travel if the direct routes are no longer operating as Russian Airspace is closed...Turkey and greece benefits or Eqypt?

Well, Trump is inconsistent as ever. NYT just reported that he just told his Republican followers: still lots of things to do - war open ended ...

President Trump sent conflicting signals on Monday about the duration of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, suggesting that the war could be near an end, and a few hours later leaving the timing open-ended.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/09/world/iran-war-israel-trump-oil

[Waltzing]

Chump just blinked and that leaves the gulf in a mess...well more of a mess and really shows that the whole place was always going to come apart at the seams..

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/09/business/oil-iran-strait-navy-economy

oil is not going back down anytime soon surely...

wait till NET YAHOO ring up later today and say W*F...

Bomb baby bomb... they have sent in the BUFF...

Tora Bora Baby...

but wait all the BUFF's are due for an 8 engine upgrade and that means every BUFF pilot is saying "come on baby one last time bring us back home one last time....!!!"

[Waltzing]

Ok AUS and NZ are on the critical list for supplies.. the number of days of supply needs to be researched...

imagine if NZ suddenly ran low...ooops

[Waltzing]

No boots on the ground... IRAN is very hilly place...technical term there...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Iran

Trump will have to do more a lot more... dont bet on the oil flowing unless the US Navy pull of a military version of Houdini....

All those Littoral combat ships are doing what? waiting to be scrapped???

[Waltzing]

they are going to patrol the SH...

https://www.facebook.com/War1982/videos/luftwaffe-bombers-attack-british-ships-in-the-english-channel/880156656186801/

Classic footage latest technology of the day...your grandfathers who service in the RAF were there..

[Waltzing]

Now they arnt going to patrol or pound the enemy with the old wagons.. but i bet you dont know the history of the Iowa guns... those famous artillery weapon that are still capable of firing today...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0GWOGtYK1s
 

[BlackPeter]

No boots on the ground... IRAN is very hilly place...technical term there...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Iran

Trump will have to do more a lot more... dont bet on the oil flowing unless the US Navy pull of a military version of Houdini....

All those Littoral combat ships are doing what? waiting to be scrapped???

Given that the US army was kicked out of Afghanistan by 45m Afghans (well, lets face it - really only 60k Taliban), I am wondering how they deal against 90m Iranians. I understand that the revolutianary guards are nearly 200k, and I am sure they are happy as well to fight with Kalashnikows while wearing their flipflops?

Boots on the ground? Sure, they can do this for days, weeks, months, years or decades ... but they need to expect plenty of losses and high ongoing costs. Korea, Vietnam, Irak, Afghanistan - and now Iran. But I guess given the low calibre of the US presidents they just need to invest more money into re-learning even the most basic things.

Given however that even Trump's lapdogs don't like the war, I am wondering how long it will run. November 2026 comes closer.

[Waltzing]

Ok it appear that they need over watch but what happened to eyes in the sky well.. it went AWOL..

Research from ALGO on what assets are stationed over head as of today..this one went missing and maybe someone told the Iran evil doers how to take it down...

"MQ-4C Triton — What It Is
It's the US Navy's premier high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) unmanned surveillance drone — essentially a naval variant of the Air Force's Global Hawk.
SpecDetailAltitude~55,000 feet (above weather, above most threats)Endurance24+ hours continuous flightSensorsMulti-function active sensor (MFAS) radar, EO/IR cameras, signals intelligenceCoverageSingle aircraft monitors ~7 million km² of ocean simultaneouslyRolePersistent 24/7 ISR — tracks surface ships, small boats, vehicles on coastlines
Why it matters for the Strait:
It's the eye in the sky that never sleeps. One Triton orbiting at altitude can see every vessel, every vehicle on Iran's coast, every drone launch — day and night, in all weather.
What "vanished" means tactically:
The aircraft transmitted a 7700 emergency squawk code — the aviation equivalent of a mayday — then disappeared from radar. Whether it was shot down, jammed into crashing via electronic warfare, or mechanical failure is unconfirmed. Defence Security Asia
If it was hostile action, Iran demonstrated it can reach up to 55,000 feet — which means the assumption that high-altitude ISR is a safe persistent asset over the Strait is broken. No Triton = no persistent night coverage ."

[Ferg]

I think they replaced it already and are still trying to figure out what happened:
https://aviationnews.eu/news/2026/03/u-s-navy-mq-4c-triton-drone-vanishes-over-strait-of-hormuz-after-emergency-signal/

[TraderRay]

This is going to drag on a good few months, hard pass on stocks going into assets like gold and bitcoin.

[Waltzing]

 tanker ablaze.. oil bounces back over 100...

 https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26