Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

right well if your in some areas of auckland petrol prices could go 5 dollars if there is a problem

already at 4...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland/petrol-hits-4-a-litre-in-eastern-and-southern-auckland-suburbs/KHXQTVN3KFDPLMQ5E6BVHGYLV4/

[Plata]

It's hard to see how the US can end this cleanly without looking weak. Why ship so many marines and ask for 200 billion extra war money for a war thats about to end? I think the markets are still underpricing the risk of a prolonged oil crisis.

[Waltzing]

now the situation in russia is dire.. people (models) who normally like to show off their fast fashions and other products to one another cant!!!

the internet platforms supporting these fashion icons... is ... not working...

could this bring down the evil empire.. dont under estimate the power of fashion..

[Waltzing]

If US hits Iran infrastructure the locals apparently wont be happen and will withdraw support.

Its a fine line between support and saying dont attack us we want to take a shower!!

One local hadnt had a shower in 3 weeks!! and was furious that the US was now threatening to strike non military targets.

Europe is now facing a crisis as they get dragged into the world of a complete mad man...

Its time to get that plastic fuel tank container out and fill it up!!! THE BIG ONE..

There will be panic buying if this keeps going.

The west bank is a tider box ...

[Waltzing]

Now those straights need to open inside 48 hours.. there was another straight not far away that also needed to be opened  last time there was a great conflagration in the region.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tEXn_UGPYA

[LoungeLizard]

Chickens coming home to roost for western countries that failed to say or do anything about the Palestinian genocide, the pre-war strikes on Iran/Syria/Lebanon/Yemen or the abduction of Maduro. All of which breach the international laws that western countries like to lecture other countries about.

Already there have been war-crimes committed by the US and Israel bombardment of schools/hospitals and residential homes and the unilateral strike against a sovereign nation breahs article 2 and 51 of the UN charter. Does this get a mention let alone a condemnation? No. The focus of NZ media is on how the retaliatory  strikes by Iran is pushing up oil prices. Iran is ordered to show restraint in.... defending itself. That's some colossal hypocrisy, I have to say.

I reckon the Middle East should kick the US out of the region and sign a pact with Iran. Use China as a broker since they had success in brokering an accord between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The US doesn't care about the Arab world and the current President doesn't care about the mayhem he is causing in the region. The longer this goes on it's possible that the oil producing nations will end up paying Iran 100's of billions of dollars for Iran to repair its infrastructure provided they re-open the straits and stop attacking their refineries.

[Waltzing]

now look all your left wing voters imagine if this happens to you.. this poor fashion conscious sochivite is facing the prospect of the KGB spying on her night and day checking out her make up and ... maybe other things.. will they be able to even turn the phones off?

that the answer.. turn the phone off???

[Waltzing]

Ok IEA issues warning that we may be entering an energy crisis - of course... over 3000 ships trapped inside and outside SH.

https://www.iea.org/

[Waltzing]

Most people in this country wont have known much about this or forgotten it... bottom of the world.. lost in time.. islands clouded in mist...

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/22/middleeast/iran-war-history-tanker-wars-intl-hnk-ml

[Plata]

we're gonna run ouuuut of fuueeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeel neeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeext moooooooooooooooooooooooonth

[BlackPeter]

Chickens coming home to roost for western countries that failed to say or do anything about the Palestinian genocide, the pre-war strikes on Iran/Syria/Lebanon/Yemen or the abduction of Maduro. All of which breach the international laws that western countries like to lecture other countries about.

Already there have been war-crimes committed by the US and Israel bombardment of schools/hospitals and residential homes and the unilateral strike against a sovereign nation breahs article 2 and 51 of the UN charter. Does this get a mention let alone a condemnation? No. The focus of NZ media is on how the retaliatory  strikes by Iran is pushing up oil prices. Iran is ordered to show restraint in.... defending itself. That's some colossal hypocrisy, I have to say.

I reckon the Middle East should kick the US out of the region and sign a pact with Iran. Use China as a broker since they had success in brokering an accord between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The US doesn't care about the Arab world and the current President doesn't care about the mayhem he is causing in the region. The longer this goes on it's possible that the oil producing nations will end up paying Iran 100's of billions of dollars for Iran to repair its infrastructure provided they re-open the straits and stop attacking their refineries.

Life is complicated. Hardly any black and white but fifty shades of grey splashed with lots of red ...

But yes, Trumps attack on Venezuela was illegal - despite the Venezuelan regime being a disgrace. Trumps attack on Iran was illegal - despite the Iranian regime being a disgrace. And hey - not sure what the final outcome out of Venezuelas attack will be (nothing good so far), but Trumps attack in Iran was clearly as dumb as it can get. Whatever he wanted to get out of the attack - you only see people suffering and dying and prices going up.

Things have been really bad before ... and now they are worse.

Whether the suggestions you make will improve anything ... not sure about that. I hear that living in Chinese controlled regions can be pretty daunting as well. Chinas internal and external actions are frequently illegal. Living in Tibet or Xinjiang (do you like the reeductaion camps?) ... or look at what happened to life in Hongkong - using free speach brings you now for decades behind bars? Not quite sure how Taiwanese people think about this matter?

I guess Trump made sure that it now really feels for people to live between a rock and a hard place ... but to improve things we probably need more than just picking the other side of the grinder.

[LoungeLizard]

Life is complicated. Hardly any black and white but fifty shades of grey splashed with lots of red ...

But yes, Trumps attack on Venezuela was illegal - despite the Venezuelan regime being a disgrace. Trumps attack on Iran was illegal - despite the Iranian regime being a disgrace. And hey - not sure what the final outcome out of Venezuelas attack will be (nothing good so far), but Trumps attack in Iran was clearly as dumb as it can get. Whatever he wanted to get out of the attack - you only see people suffering and dying and prices going up.

Things have been really bad before ... and now they are worse.

Whether the suggestions you make will improve anything ... not sure about that. I hear that living in Chinese controlled regions can be pretty daunting as well. Chinas internal and external actions are frequently illegal. Living in Tibet or Xinjiang (do you like the reeductaion camps?) ... or look at what happened to life in Hongkong - using free speach brings you now for decades behind bars? Not quite sure how Taiwanese people think about this matter?

I guess Trump made sure that it now really feels for people to live between a rock and a hard place ... but to improve things we probably need more than just picking the other side of the grinder.

Good points.

I'm no fan of the CCP but Chinese actions abroad - beyond its region of influence (including Taiwan) - strike me as different to the US's approach. They don't seem - so far - to be interested in adding a military component to their trade and development. The US and NATO relationships are all based on establishing military bases. That's done under the guise of providing protection but we all know it has more to do with geopolitical positioning and protecting their own interests (and access to oil).

I'm not saying it's about to happen, but I wonder whether countries like Saudi/UAE/Qatar may start to question whether having a US military presence actually makes them more vulnerable to attack rather than less. And perhaps Israel wouldn't be as quite as reckless if the US had a diminished presence in the region.

All academic probably. Trump's declaration of victory is proving to be an illusion and reveals the weakness of the US military rather than its strength. They can't kill everyone - they can't even find where all the drones and missiles are hidden in a country that is the 17th largest in the world (larger than France, Germany, Spain and the UK COMBINED).

It's Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc all over again. Easy to start a war, but way harder to finish it.

[BlackPeter]

Good points.

I'm no fan of the CCP but Chinese actions abroad - beyond its region of influence (including Taiwan) - strike me as different to the US's approach. They don't seem - so far - to be interested in adding a military component to their trade and development. The US and NATO relationships are all based on establishing military bases. That's done under the guise of providing protection but we all know it has more to do with geopolitical positioning and protecting their own interests (and access to oil).

I'm not saying it's about to happen, but I wonder whether countries like Saudi/UAE/Qatar may start to question whether having a US military presence actually makes them more vulnerable to attack rather than less. And perhaps Israel wouldn't be as quite as reckless if the US had a diminished presence in the region.

All academic probably. Trump's declaration of victory is proving to be an illusion and reveals the weakness of the US military rather than its strength. They can't kill everyone - they can't even find where all the drones and missiles are hidden in a country that is the 17th largest in the world (larger than France, Germany, Spain and the UK COMBINED).

It's Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc all over again. Easy to start a war, but way harder to finish it.

I think we agree that Chinas dealings outside the area they call their home are typically less military. Having said that - their cannons seem to sound further than they used to. As well, the seven dots through "their" Chinese sea seem to be somewhat moveable and in no way internationally agreed. Talk with the Philipinos ...

No doubt as well that many US wars added very little value for anybody and, no doubt - Iran looks like another amazing example for one of these.

I would doubt your statements throwing US and NATO into the same pot. While you clearly have a lot of US bases all around the world (and yes, they don't always add value or security), I can't remember any Nato base which is not in a Nato country (and that's where they belong). Do you?

Ah - and re Israel ... sure, they are currently controlled by their own mini Trump driven by hard right extremists, but still - Israel has a right to exist within their own country, and lets face it - the terrorists and milizias they attack in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran try to extinguish Israel. So yes - there are plenty of shades of grey here as well.

[Waltzing]

it appears that talks are taking place between Chumps team of criminals and the EVIL representatives of GOD on earth.. The new Kings of persia...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/23/iran-club-wielding-corrupt-commander-deal-trump/

could be all over as the persians have indeed maybe taken a whipping...

now where is international law...

[LoungeLizard]

I think we agree that Chinas dealings outside the area they call their home are typically less military. Having said that - their cannons seem to sound further than they used to. As well, the seven dots through "their" Chinese sea seem to be somewhat moveable and in no way internationally agreed. Talk with the Philipinos ...

No doubt as well that many US wars added very little value for anybody and, no doubt - Iran looks like another amazing example for one of these.

I would doubt your statements throwing US and NATO into the same pot. While you clearly have a lot of US bases all around the world (and yes, they don't always add value or security), I can't remember any Nato base which is not in a Nato country (and that's where they belong). Do you?

Ah - and re Israel ... sure, they are currently controlled by their own mini Trump driven by hard right extremists, but still - Israel has a right to exist within their own country, and lets face it - the terrorists and milizias they attack in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran try to extinguish Israel. So yes - there are plenty of shades of grey here as well.

We diverge on two points.

NATO is a military alliance, pure and simple. Countries enter NATO because they are promised security and US missiles and troops arrive thereafter. As in the Middle East tt's a debatable point as to whether it actually delivers security or whether it just bakes in enmity between the two sides, in this case with Russia. Clinton was advised by many top generals at the time that the expansion of NATO (Poland, Hungary, CZECH Republic initially) would actually make Europe less secure as it would codify the enemity between Europe and Russia. The Cold War was never allowed to thaw. Would Russia have invaded Ukraine if it didn't interpret the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO as an existential threat (real or imagined)?

I think Israel has gone way, way past the point of using self defence as its excuse for the obliteration of GAZA and now in Lebanon and Iran. Netanyahu has already been determined to be a war criminal and in time I think he will be found to have committed genocide.

Hard to know who the "good guys" are in any of this, but as history shows us, there are times when the west are not always the good guys. I think, with Trump in command, breaking all sorts of international laws, we are probably living in one of those times.