Geopolitical Risk

[BlackPeter]

We diverge on two points.

NATO is a military alliance, pure and simple. Countries enter NATO because they are promised security and US missiles and troops arrive thereafter. As in the Middle East tt's a debatable point as to whether it actually delivers security or whether it just bakes in enmity between the two sides, in this case with Russia. Clinton was advised by many top generals at the time that the expansion of NATO (Poland, Hungary, CZECH Republic initially) would actually make Europe less secure as it would codify the enemity between Europe and Russia. The Cold War was never allowed to thaw. Would Russia have invaded Ukraine if it didn't interpret the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO as an existential threat (real or imagined)?

I think Israel has gone way, way past the point of using self defence as its excuse for the obliteration of GAZA and now in Lebanon and Iran. Netanyahu has already been determined to be a war criminal and in time I think he will be found to have committed genocide.

Hard to know who the "good guys" are in any of this, but as history shows us, there are times when the west are not always the good guys. I think, with Trump in command, breaking all sorts of international laws, we are probably living in one of those times.
 

NATO is a military defence alliance. It is important not to ignore the defence when talking about them - because this is the only reason they exist.

Sure - the western reaction to the end of the cold war was ways from perfect - and this might include the East extension of Nato. But still, it just is a defensive alliance based on volunteers - even if some of Russias strongmen claim to have a different view.

And no question - Israels current reaction is neither appropriate nor useful. And I didn't claim that. It is just difficult to find an appropriate response if you are attacked by terrorists and controlled by right wing extremists.

Thats all in the shades of grey. Both sides tend to attack each other - and neither the various arab attacks on Israel nor the Israelic responses have been fair and sensible. Keeping Palestinians for now three generations in refugee camps has not been responsible. The 2023 Hamas attack was just bestialic ... but yes, the way Israel is trying to cash in the Palestinian areas looks not too different to what happened with Jews in the early phases during Nazi Germany.

I am sure both Israel as well as Palestina claim that it was the other side who started the conflict ... and from there its just following the old testament of the bible (like Deuteronomy 20). They just didn't yet manage to kill everything which breaths on the other side.

OK - but this is widening the debate. We don't disagree that Israels current reaction is absolutely inappropriate, I just pointed out, that they have as well a right to live and exist, and both Iran as well as Hamas dispute this.

[Waltzing]

CHUMP and his crew of criminals want to run the SH along with the EVIL Reps of GOD on earth...

They will put a automated toll solution in place.

Payments go direct to a SH Toll company.. guess who sits on the board and has a lift time chairmanship..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/23/trump-postpones-strikes-iran-power-plants-middle-east/

[LoungeLizard]

NATO is a military defence alliance. It is important not to ignore the defence when talking about them - because this is the only reason they exist.

Sure - the western reaction to the end of the cold war was ways from perfect - and this might include the East extension of Nato. But still, it just is a defensive alliance based on volunteers - even if some of Russias strongmen claim to have a different view.

And no question - Israels current reaction is neither appropriate nor useful. And I didn't claim that. It is just difficult to find an appropriate response if you are attacked by terrorists and controlled by right wing extremists.

Thats all in the shades of grey. Both sides tend to attack each other - and neither the various arab attacks on Israel nor the Israelic responses have been fair and sensible. Keeping Palestinians for now three generations in refugee camps has not been responsible. The 2023 Hamas attack was just bestialic ... but yes, the way Israel is trying to cash in the Palestinian areas looks not too different to what happened with Jews in the early phases during Nazi Germany.

I am sure both Israel as well as Palestina claim that it was the other side who started the conflict ... and from there its just following the old testament of the bible (like Deuteronomy 20). They just didn't yet manage to kill everything which breaths on the other side.

OK - but this is widening the debate. We don't disagree that Israels current reaction is absolutely inappropriate, I just pointed out, that they have as well a right to live and exist, and both Iran as well as Hamas dispute this.

Far enough. But here's a hypothetical situation. Let's say, the various countries that the US has invaded, or threatens to, enters into a military alliance with say Russia or China. Purely as a protective, defensive measure. And as part of that alliance - to provide a deterence - Russia/China, build missile bases very near or next to western countries. Would we shrug our shoulders and say that these sovereign countries have a right to join any military alliance they like? Or would we class that as provocative, destabilising and potentially lead to war between the west and China/Russia?
 
I think we know how that would be interpreted. As we saw in the Cuban missile crisis, the US was very much prepared to start a thermonuclear war which would have incinerated the entire world becasue it could not countenance Russian weaponry being so close to mainland America. No-one talked about Cuba's sovereign right to ask for protection from a belligerent America who had tried to assassinate Castro on more than one occasion.

As you say, both sides in the vast majority of conflicts believe they are doing the right thing. The trick for negotiators is to try and remain neutral and win the confidence of both sides. Trouble is that takes time and neither Israel or the US are willing to wait. They'd rather choose war. Israel attacked the building in Doha, trying to kill the team negotiating for Palestine. So that was Israel attacking a neutral countries capital in order to stop peace negotiations taking place. Consequence? None.
And this time around Oman said they were getting close to a deal when Trump launched an all out assault, initially saying he did so becasue Israel was preparing to do so. Hard not to conclude that Israel simply does not want a negotiated settlement. Netanyahu probably can't believe that finally he gets a chance to obliterate Gaza, Tehran, Beirut etc and no-one, not even the UN, can do a thing about it whilst he has that useful idiot in the Whitehouse on his side.

[Waltzing]

Its a FOREVER mission...

Lets hope its not....


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/23/forever-mission-why-trump-struggle-to-reopen-strait-hormuz/

CHUMP has really got the world into a potential SLUMP...

The is a pipeline for oil to the red seas but that wont take the areas total production.

[Waltzing]

anyone got any idea why country's are declaring a state of panic!!!

fake news... emergency...

how would TINA say it??

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/25/world/video/philippines-emergency-middleeast-war-dle-intldsk

[Waltzing]

Surely the real question the world faces now is If Humanity does not embrace International LAW where is it going...

https://www.icj-cij.org/home

[Waltzing]

oh dear its the fashion bloggers who arnt happy in moscow.. imagine when the US does this to its citizens cause CHUMP cant win an election...

you all have to use TRUTH...Every thing else is banned..

[Waltzing]

Now look inflation AHOY!!!!  just wait the noises coming out of the white house are completely fantasy stuff..

They need to put CHUMP in a straight jacket...

Its going to get bad people... Bush had taken IRAQ by now...

Everything could soon have to take the long route round africa..

fuel over 6 dollars a litre? maybe more?

[Waltzing]

here we go !!! 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/philippines-says-grounding-planes-is-a-distinct-possibility

yes... not long now...

Biggest oil disruption in global history on the way

[BlackPeter]

here we go !!! 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-24/philippines-says-grounding-planes-is-a-distinct-possibility

yes... not long now...

Biggest oil disruption in global history on the way

What else would we expect from Chump? Of course he will generate the "Biggest Oil Disruption Ever", followed by Trumps most outstanding Persian TACO! Clearly - this will be the biggest chicken out he ever has done ... and the west will pay for that for decades.

I always wondered why he works so well for Russia, but it clearly looks like he is useful for Persia as well.

[Waltzing]

US planes taken out by Vissles...they hit the Prince sultan Air Base... whoops...

the bear must have given those evil persians the co ords...

[Waltzing]

Spare parts!!!  spare parts, it was parked up to save space!!!

[BlackPeter]

Spare parts!!!  spare parts, it was parked up to save space!!!

Spare parts? Of the back or the front of the plane? Maybe we need to send them our crusher ...

[LoungeLizard]

This is going to turn very, very nasty. Iranians say they are waiting for the troops to arrive. Just Like the Vietnamese.
I would not be buying shares for the foreseeable. Cash up or sit tight.

[Waltzing]

CNBC this afternoon all about the wall that the speeding car is heading towards...

Its only 20 percent of world oil and apparently thats enough to push to over 140 and at that point economies start to slow..

its called a slow train wreck....

There will be OIL but watch what happens next...