Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

And how soon is the hour... how did it all come down to this... Again...

Be ready people.. be ready...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/02/wargaming-world-war-three-how-where-next-global-conflict/

It may not be as big as the last one as it certainly wont last long as no one has the stock piles..

IDF will hit iran again hard soon... why let a bad operator get up again..

The problem with the third world war idea is that its already begun and the first round did not go according to the evil axis plan...

The french did a doco that was aired on Rialto channel...which stopped short before iran got all smashed up and syria went AWOL for the bad guys...

and now that the US has gone AWOL as well there maybe not one to world a true world war...

it might all just flop even with the over run of TW...

But if they go for TW watch out as this stock market wont handle it well... not at all...

we are still betting our software on europe and a smashed up UK due to electricity prices... Europe has lasted well over a thousand years.. more to come...

if there is anything going on locally beside some sport, gardening and bowls let us know....dont even bother to watch any local news...shocking...

[Waltzing]

And the strikes begin... no UN session holding up some Cards and chatting about WMD's  ...

its open season...

and the world is back in the 16th century...is all this for real.....the US has gone rogue.. pick on a weak state and its all just a western now is it?


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/03/explosions-venezuela-capital-caracas/

[Waltzing]

The whipped in and .. flew out...

One man... they got ONE MAN.. and left everything else in tact.. Tom Clancy !!!

What a joke...

"https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/venezuela-explosions-caracas-intl-hnk-01-03-26"

really? No one Vissle fired back .. what kind of deal has been made here!!!!

One New York mafia takes over another in another country?

Farce!!!!  Who is running who and what....

Its a WILD WEST ... almost everywhere....

The US military is now doing the bidding of a new york real estate mafia family and friends supported by now new minted crypto coin being sold to anyone who buys enough of it to buy a deal..

How much money has russia paid for Ukraine...would they even bother...? Which russian mafia has washed money via Trump crypto ? 

A world now beyond your ability to participate in... 

[Plata]

The real key for the venezuela plan to work is getting a collaborator government in ASAP and preventing guerrilla activity. No one will build ANYTHING there to get the oil out if things are getting bombed all the time. Will be very interesting to see how things go, apparently people are celebrating in venezuela already.

[Waltzing]

There is no world order now...

It gones for a long long time... China special operation next?

What is your plan for your investment portfolio ....

When is the first tactical nuclear weapon going to be dropped somewhere...

Nukes are back... get your nukes fast...its your only security now...

[BlackPeter]

There is no world order now...

It gones for a long long time... China special operation next?

What is your plan for your investment portfolio ....

When is the first tactical nuclear weapon going to be dropped somewhere...

Nukes are back... get your nukes fast...its your only security now...

Actually - world order hasn't changed - and the law of the jungle works as it always did. It probably was just an illusion that some parts of mankind tried to change the system to rules based considering as well some humanitarian rights. Clearly, never properly worked, and now we are openly back to gunboat diplomacy.

But hey, dinosaurs didn't run the world forever, and I suppose the TrumpXiPutins won't run as long as the dinosaurs. Human history seems to have a big crisis roughly every 90 years or so - and this is where we currently are. Give it another 5 to 10 years, TrumpXiPutins will be dead, their henchman are too dumb to run the show and mankind will find again a better way to deal with each other - well, until the next big crisis, but hey, who cares (now) about 2125?

Lets try to keep our small part of the world livable through the crisis - and hey, maybe we can even benefit from the world crushing around us. I hear Switzerland did rather well during WW 2, why couldn't we learn from them for this crisis?

And actually - it was not nukes saving the Swiss (ok, they only invented them late in WW2), but what helped them was on one hand the offer to tyrants and mafia bosses around the world to save their money in Switzerland ... coupled with a Swiss army which had basically soldiers and their guns in every house.

[Waltzing]

"and the law of the jungle works as it always did"  hang on... 1848 was all for nothing then!!! 

anyway... it appear some local residents sleeping had their houses blown up...

precision hits apparently on military targets..

greenland next ...
 

[Waltzing]

well now that the GOLD house is running another country... having trouble the one they stole (USA).. we will get to see how good this team really is.. and then after they try to take over green land, canada.. they might try to retake London!!!!

No.. sorry got carried away...

arrhh... where were we...

Right... no way they can run the USA and some banana republic in the bay of america... where is this island anyway...

anyone know where any of this action is taking place..?

Cuba right? they are going to blockage CUBA.. why stop at one island.. you there for goodness sake dont sail away now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTrk4X9ACtw

[Waltzing]

alert alert a large oil field has been rumored to have been found off Steward island...

Its likely this island will be over run by a US coast guard cutter and a delta force operator hanging out the window with a mega phone...


the new zealand government evacuation plans for steward island cant be found in amongst the 81 portfolios allocated to ministers in the new zealand government and no one knows who to contact on the island...

the local grocery store is closed for xmas and new year and no one knows where the shop keeper has gone... fishing some one said.. comes back when he comes back...

New Zealand is in dire danger of losing this new valuable assets in the deep south...

defend new zealand !!!!  take up your pitch forks and shovels...

now this reminds me of something that happened just this week!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4M2eRbA-sTU

warning people it can happen any time any place..

   

[Waltzing]

But back to the real world ? (is this a movie or a book , 1984...)

China now has a green light for TW... the slope is slippery as everything slides over the cliff...

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/05/world/analysis-trump-venezuela-greenland-nato-intl-latam

the enemy is now in the white house... and its miller... the trump whisper...

what will the US embassy in NZ be told to monitor...

[BlackPeter]

But back to the real world ? (is this a movie or a book , 1984...)

China now has a green light for TW... the slope is slippery as everything slides over the cliff...

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/05/world/analysis-trump-venezuela-greenland-nato-intl-latam

the enemy is now in the white house... and its miller... the trump whisper...

what will the US embassy in NZ be told to monitor...

Tough question - who will be attacked first? Taiwan or Greenland?

AI says an attack on Taiwan is more likely.

This gives us at least a quiet 2026 .... Xi asked for an invasion in 2027, didn't he - but than, does AI understand Trump?

AI response on who will be attacked first:

While no attack is guaranteed, Taiwan faces a significantly higher and more immediate risk of conflict due to heightened tensions with China, driven by strategic importance (microchips, Pacific access) and increased military drills, whereas Greenland is a strategic Arctic resource location, with potential future disputes involving rare earth minerals, but not currently facing imminent invasion threats like Taiwan. China's military pressure on Taiwan is escalating, with some experts anticipating a potential invasion by 2027, making Taiwan the primary focus for potential military action in the near term.
Why Taiwan is a Hotspot:
Geostrategic Location: Taiwan sits on the "First Island Chain," crucial for China's Pacific access and for U.S. containment strategies.
Economic Powerhouse: It produces a vast majority of the world's advanced microchips, vital for global technology.
Escalating Military Pressure: China conducts frequent military drills near Taiwan, seen as preparation for potential invasion or blockade.
Why Greenland is Important (but less immediately threatened):
Arctic Resources: Greenland holds vast untapped rare earth minerals and hydrocarbons, critical for future technology and military needs.
Great Power Competition: Its resources make it a strategic interest for the U.S. and other powers, but currently, it's a focus for diplomatic and resource competition, not invasion.
In essence, Taiwan is currently a major flashpoint with active military buildup and invasion threats, while Greenland is a long-term strategic prize in the Arctic, with geopolitical implications, but without the immediate military crisis surrounding it.

[Waltzing]

we call AI (another idiot) - anything less than a 1 million token context window and it has to reply on its training model...

one wonders if they try to invade greenland the US military will be thrown into chaos....

whose going to follow any of them in the white house....

seriously US military invade greenland... be like invading canada... the US 10th mountain would end up parked in a local pub watching ice hockey...

[HAWKDOG]

alert alert a large oil field has been rumored to have been found off Steward island...

Its likely this island will be over run by a US coast guard cutter and a delta force operator hanging out the window with a mega phone...


the new zealand government evacuation plans for steward island cant be found in amongst the 81 portfolios allocated to ministers in the new zealand government and no one knows who to contact on the island...

the local grocery store is closed for xmas and new year and no one knows where the shop keeper has gone... fishing some one said.. comes back when he comes back...

New Zealand is in dire danger of losing this new valuable assets in the deep south...

defend new zealand !!!!  take up your pitch forks and shovels...

now this reminds me of something that happened just this week!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4M2eRbA-sTU

warning people it can happen any time any place..

   

Trump is all about securing strategic resources in the northern hemisphere -  he will be leaving places like NZ to china.  Russia gets europe.

[Davexl]

Seminal article on Market responses to Geopolitical evenst...
Well worth the read IMO

Geopolitics and wars rage as markets look past the noise

Geopolitics dominate headlines, from war to political turmoil, but markets keep shrugging it off, moving higher. Bulls N' Bears' Dollar Bill looks to history to show why investors often panic at the wrong time.

https://thewest.com.au/business/bulls-n-bears/geopolitics-and-wars-rage-as-markets-look-past-the-noise-c-21232432?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TheWest+-+Business&utm_id=202806&sfmc_id=17515736
 

[Waltzing]

 
The US wont even get the oil in its back yard...

If China Invades TW investors will learn the hard way that markets dont look though events like that...

One economist said China wont be that silly... Dictators do silly all the TIME!!!!

Simulations of TW invasion looks really bad for markets.. of course if your ready... then opportunities will be there but that will take years to recover... just look how long it took europe to recover from the GFC...

NZ market is struggle now....we will see who heads are in the sand when then soliders hit the beach... lets hopes not...

You really dont want to find out right???

The car industry is already nearly dry on certain kinds of chips in europe...