Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

Remember the roman empire.. its back .. the USA is falling into the same state the roman empire did... and its interesting that in the UK historians today call the romans the Carpet Baggers... remember the book...

has Ukraine just now become a state that europe must now annex ... big decision await as the carpet baggers hunt through the rumble... just like the romans did in the ancient country side in Britannia..

[BlackPeter]

Remember the roman empire.. its back .. the USA is falling into the same state the roman empire did... and its interesting that in the UK historians today call the romans the Carpet Baggers... remember the book...

has Ukraine just now become a state that europe must now annex ... big decision await as the carpet baggers hunt through the rumble... just like the romans did in the ancient country side in Britannia..

Interesting. And yes, clearly as well as Russia and the UK are ways past their prime, the US is now fast going down. The only problem is - they are still the largest economy, and it takes decades and sometimes centuries for big powers to disappear. They are as well quite dangerous during the downturn - which is not a good omen for the decades to come.

More interesting however is - who will be next, and will they be able to control all those fading powers.

China? India? Africa??

Europe would be nice ... but just looking at increasing populism I'm not so certain. The next decades / centuries (hopefully not like for Rome - the next thousand years) might well be determined by various middle powers fighting against each other and against the migration of larger and larger groups of migrants.

Lets hope we can keep this part of the globe sort of clean, get enough people in to keep us going but able to determine the rules. 

[Waltzing]

TACo, news TACO T... apparently the latest peace plan is... well the latest plan... it is apparently a new plan replacing the old plan and apparently even members of the GOP want another NEW PLAN... looks like this will soon be the old plan....

which plan are we up to ... NO ONE KNOWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

remember this day.... or DONT!!!!

now where were we up to... summer is here and boy didnt those weed grew this spring... mitre 10 running any specials on weed killers?

right everyone can go back to gardening and some people are still boating... now remember when china invades TW you will not be able to boat as oil shipments will stop.. so boat while you can...

[Waltzing]

peace in our time... its a marketing campaign... its actually for local MAGA consumption and why its back firing on the home MAGA front because its not really about peace its about the show... there show... prime time vote catching shows...

Its not about peace ... who care about peace!!!!

It all about ratings!!!!!

and it appears the latest peace deal is the SAME PEACE deal...

It the same marketing plan....

Yes this is the case of "fighting their little hearts out"

Its all for TV... and its the worst rerun show ... EVER!!!

https://ukrainetoday.com/trump-says-new-us-peace-plan-not-final-offer-to-ukraine/

and its the "WHO CAN WE STEAL FROM NEXT!!!"

and there are blogs out there on the 28 points ..... numbers numbers numbers ... cut and past plans since the... well the marshal plan....

there a legions of people who make money from these plans... there must be a lot of tree cut down when they print these plans....its NOT NET ZERO!!!!!!!

[Waltzing]

Ok... GREEN PEACE ALERT....

ukraine hits oil tankers in black sea... empty ones.... they have got someone sitting on the beach in a local cafe Tanker Spotting!!!!!!

Its a new pass time and they get Buy me a coffee support from ukraine drone boat flotillas...

Havnt had a chance to use that word in how many years of this war.. mean special game of Thrones!!!


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/29/ukrainian-drone-boats-blow-up-russian-oil-tankers/

[Waltzing]

IS NZ about to go to war.... no .. not even if the UK is attacked ... but what is the NZ position? Does NZ even have one?

is it 1936 -38 all over again... of course it is and no... Russia is a mess and is ready for nothing much...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/02/witkoff-kushner-meet-putin-moscow/

But there has never been a time when the US has been this close to a mafia state ... ever...

and can you load up on ammo any time you like in europe?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/02/thieves-stole-20000-german-ammunition-driver-slept/?recomm_id=ef306714-bbf9-4e8a-aa1c-9a249511cf8d

[Waltzing]

There appears to be a reduction of communications between the pentagon and Nato europe...

Is US under CHUMP now being told to walk back communications with NATO and Europe...

what about the pacific

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/russia-ukraine-war/

[BlackPeter]

IS NZ about to go to war.... no .. not even if the UK is attacked ... but what is the NZ position? Does NZ even have one?

is it 1936 -38 all over again... of course it is and no... Russia is a mess and is ready for nothing much...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/02/witkoff-kushner-meet-putin-moscow/

But there has never been a time when the US has been this close to a mafia state ... ever...

and can you load up on ammo any time you like in europe?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/02/thieves-stole-20000-german-ammunition-driver-slept/?recomm_id=ef306714-bbf9-4e8a-aa1c-9a249511cf8d

Well, while Putins army isn't much to fight Europe - his threat with nuclear attacks and him running the guy who runs the white house makes a difference.

Clearly a time for the Russian mafia and the US mafia to split Europe and for the Chinese mafia to focus on their old maps.

Interesting story re the German ammo. I guess half of it is blank (i.e. only makes noise) and the other half is for pistols (9mm). Wondering why they need so much pistol ammo in the baracks? Hardly useable in war. Who knows, maybe the AfD needed some ammo and bribed one of the drivers ...

Anyway - your timing reference is certainly fitting. The question is more where the war is starting to expand. Russia placing some nuclear missiles into Europe? China going Taiwan? Arabs going Israel? Ah, and what about the black continent?

[Waltzing]

- Europe according to this Australian's lady journalist...

- at minute 53 or so...

- Once you slide of the cliff like Russia has its hard to stop a run away train...

- Apparently here the heads are in the sand (she says AUS)...

- NZ has taken the first step and has along with AUS starting putting some COIN into the European weapons buying program...


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/russia-ukraine-war/

some people in AUS and NZ will have products that dont fit into these small markets..(NZ and AUS) and it will effect the countries GDP...and every investor bar none... well

if you thought about buying gold back in 2014-15 and said surely not... well join the club... those who bought gold well done...

looks like you wont be able to get enough of it...

how did it all come down to this....(lord of the rings)..

[Waltzing]

Ireland to spend 2 billion on fighter aircraft....

How long is it before NZ realises it needs some form of air defense....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/12/04/military-drones-flew-towards-zelensky-plane-dublin/

[Waltzing]

Put threatens europe with total destruction in a real war... IE nuclear.. knowing that the US will do nothing...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/12/03/nothing-to-fear-from-putin-nukes/

lets hope its all bluff... after all you cant enjoy much after moscow gos up in radiation from a French nuclear missile ....

not sure the english ones will actually fire.. but a few will no doubt... oh but wait russian nuclear Vissiles have been siting in silos with little maintenances in decades...

Nuclear weapons are now needed by everyone... where is Australia going to house theres in those sub thats arnt coming any time soon???

[Waltzing]

Now france.. drones over nuclear sub base and yes now europe is shooting back.. name of the base translates to "End of Earth"

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20251205-france-takes-anti-drone-measures-after-flight-over-nuclear-sub-base

those french have some missiles that go a long way very very fast...

[Waltzing]

RARELY do we think of GEO risk from a rare earth perspective but is there money to be made beside the investing in Gold you all though about but perhaps went.. who buys gold anymore?

Is this a area worth researching and is it investible?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/03/britain-lead-fightback-chinese-rare-earths-stranglehold/?recomm_id=c4fc4188-0775-45be-a68a-8f6d1fe3476f

[BlackPeter]

RARELY do we think of GEO risk from a rare earth perspective but is there money to be made beside the investing in Gold you all though about but perhaps went.. who buys gold anymore?

Is this a area worth researching and is it investible?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/03/britain-lead-fightback-chinese-rare-earths-stranglehold/?recomm_id=c4fc4188-0775-45be-a68a-8f6d1fe3476f

No doubt, Hon Shane thought already about it:
 https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/critical-minerals-driving-west-coast-mining-revival

And yes, rare earths are not really rare, and NZ has as well some of them - mainly offshore, though.

Whether we decide to mine them, depends on our greenness, and whether this is profitable has a lot to do with what the rest of the world does. No doubt there are currently other people as well trying to find a way around Chinas monopoly. Its not that China is the only country with rare earth minerals, they just delivered them cheap enough to cut every other supplier out.

... though people seem to think anyway that China is overplaying its card:
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5634021-china-rare-earth-leverage/#:~:text=In%20Minnesota%2C%20Niron%20Magnetics%20is,What%20Do%20You%20Think?

[Waltzing]

dont worry... the government has a plan... only the extraction of this stuff costs a lot . Some company in the US has a new extraction process... great but its doubtful any company here could afford it... is this the point where government assistance is going to be needed... and its time to realise that NZ is maybe not a going concern..... urge to merge with AUS could become the only sensible option...