Geopolitical Risk

[BlackPeter]

The US wont even get the oil in its back yard...

If China Invades TW investors will learn the hard way that markets dont look though events like that...

One economist said China wont be that silly... Dictators do silly all the TIME!!!!

Simulations of TW invasion looks really bad for markets.. of course if your ready... then opportunities will be there but that will take years to recover... just look how long it took europe to recover from the GFC...

NZ market is struggle now....we will see who heads are in the sand when then soliders hit the beach... lets hopes not...

You really dont want to find out right???

The car industry is already nearly dry on certain kinds of chips in europe...

But hey - it looks like Australia and NZ are the best places when the nukes start to come down ...

Still not comfortable, but at least survivable.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/etimes/trending/nuclear-war-expert-explains-why-australia-and-new-zealand-may-be-the-last-places-left-standing-after-ww3/articleshow/125697217.cms

Anyway - not sure I'd expect this sort of scenario (though, who really could predict TrumpXiPutin&Co), but I guess our odds might look better than for many other places.

Silver lining - if we really talk about the mortality they assume in this article ... the impact of global warming should be delayed for at least a couple of generations as well. That's good, isn't it?

[Waltzing]

 ok - some laughs from the US...

JK...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x03ZxnzfgNA

[Waltzing]

There is only one hope left... the force...

BP could be right NZ could be the last place for the the rebellion to survive...

https://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/ent/scifi/kennedy-filoni.html

[Waltzing]

All is lost according to Jake Bro...

No world order... back to the age of empire... what ever happened to all those powerful social liberals and there world order...

all it took was a GFC... (bankers stole your money) ... a Virus (WHO failed to stop it as China is not a civilised country where political power was more important than world health).. and a WAR with a bunch of rusted out tanks and drunk soldiers...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4szwEdcVT0

Bolton on the creative solutions for green land comparing it to New Zealand and the Cook Islands...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7aglGdMxmg

[Waltzing]

If you dont have a fleet blue water you can no longer guard your territorial waters...

also you need sea going drones...

Looks like NZ better butter up to AUS... waka's arnt  going to make it...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/01/09/russia-ukraine-hypersonic-missile-nato-border/

large Vissles are starting to fly around... big ones...

Hellen C is going to address the UN along with JC and it will all be fine...

[Waltzing]

greenland... now will be renamed... GOLDLAND

The it appear that the USA will now do something about GOLDLAND....

after all they tried to buy it many times before...

 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/trump-greenland-military-denmark-nato.html

[Waltzing]

Will they end up the Hague...

lets hope so...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78vj5n7jg3o

[Waltzing]

Do the Russian really think they can take poland again.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Poland

are we seeing the continuation of the Polish fight to regain the Nation hood created under the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jagiellonian_dynasty...

Time isnt for the Poles to finally flourish and will they defeat the russians in the struggle to come...

Is that why they are spending 5 percent on military build ups...

[Left Field]

Trumped up charges (pun intended)  against Fed Chair Jerome Powell initiate a 'sell America' sentiment.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/12/business/stocks-dow-dollar-bonds-powell-trump-federal-investigation

[BlackPeter]

Do the Russian really think they can take poland again.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Poland

are we seeing the continuation of the Polish fight to regain the Nation hood created under the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jagiellonian_dynasty...

Time isnt for the Poles to finally flourish and will they defeat the russians in the struggle to come...

Is that why they are spending 5 percent on military build ups...

Poland has the 3rd largest NATO army (after US and Turkey). And hey, they are part of NATO. While the Russian bully will keep harrassing them, I think his first real NATO attack will be some corridor towards Kaliningrad (Königsberg), which is more likely to go through Lithuanian territory.

We'll see - maybe his funds run out before, which would be good.

[Waltzing]

yes funds may run out before the POL's get there revenge...

The fin's to want land back..

It old stuff isnt it.. germany get KL back?

Gosh  everyone got there passports ready when you all have to leave Kiwi land...

 

[Waltzing]

OIL heading back up? Can the US afford to deploy anymore military anywhere? have they ran out of supply ships?

Its logistics and it costs a lot of money....


and that is why they want a 50 percent increase in the biggest military budget in the world... where is the money going to come from?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/14/greenland-denmark-trump-white-house-meeting.html


easy go get some resources close to home... there is the Peace Prize gone....


Norway wont go for it...

[Waltzing]

Iran kills 10's of thousands and Trump steals the oil and deposits the money in the middle east...

If you still sitting on the beach having a great time thinking you still living in the great new world.. forget it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7A55a0DOw8A

European sends troops to defend greenland....

1984.... wonder if sales of the book are taking off..

anything happening down under? ..... beside a bridge being blocked by a complete nut case....

[Waltzing]

European Troops arrive in Greenland.. BBC reporting live video...

https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c0q4lplxzzlo

[Waltzing]

Is this the march to the second American Civil war?

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/136802/robert-chernomas-and-ian-hudson-explain-why-america-hasn%E2%80%99t-become-great%C2%A0again