Geopolitical Risk

[BlackPeter]

bond market pressure will build as fewer T are bought...

if these crazy ideas bond holding coming out of the Monkey House ....

then the fed will have to resort to QE...

Hadn't looked at it today, but you are right - treasuries interestrates are another thing going up in Trumpland ...
This must mean something. I recon Trump is shortening them (if one can - can one?) ...

[Waltzing]

you would have to ask drucken millar..and.with derivatives you can bet against just about anything...

the bond pirates will take the US Dollar on if they think its going to tank...

The US has a interest problem and if  main street collapses the Taxes raised will also collapse...

You can see Trump is sweating as hes calling Owl  a horrible person... horrible... nasty....

 

[Stoploss]

Hadn't looked at it today, but you are right - treasuries interestrates are another thing going up in Trumpland ...
This must mean something. I recon Trump is shortening them (if one can - can one?) ...

Yes you can short it and there are ( very liquid ) futures contracts on them as well .Treasuries market is much larger than the US stock market , so watch out if the yields keep ticking up.
We all know USA can't service their debt at higher levels , could get very ugly .
Trump is playing with fire messing with the Fed , if the market loses confidence in the Fed then its game over .

[Waltzing]

depression? no surely not.... FED will move to stop that one.... wont it?

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/22/economy/tariffs-trump-global-economy-evidence/index.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/22/investing/dow-great-depression-sell-america-trade/index.html

baltic dry....

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

10 millions worried about jobs in the US?

They can still keep partying even when the fire is raging in the basement...who checks the basement...


Ship downing by the stern as the 1st class parties on...


"Bonds
Typically, when investors get nervous, they pour money into the perceived safety of American Treasury bonds – historically the safe-haven assets to rule all safe-havens. But not this time: Government bond have sold off sharply. Yields, which trade in opposite direction to prices, have surged.

The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.4% just a month after it plunged below 4%. Bonds don't usually swing that quickly."


Gold moving to new highs....

[Waltzing]

Trump backs down as the market says we can take on any country in the bond markets...

the vigilantist's are back...

all hail the bond market... hail hail hail


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOnSh3QlpbQ

[Shareguy]

Rally coming

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/22/business/trump-china-trade-war-reduction-hnk-intl?cid=ios_app

[Basil]

S&P 500 trading on nearly 22 times last year's earnings, (source CNBC).  Fully priced and well above the ten-year average even after the recent correction.

[Waltzing]

those fast money traders like 16....

well thats the price they have talked about for 10 years.... or more...

anyway... peace in our time....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/23/russia-ukraine-zelensky-putin-war-ceasefire-latest-news/

right hoh then... back to stocking up for winter then... any easter eggs left at the super market....

now in landskrona there is a whole shop dedicated to nothing but coffee and chocolates where you fill up your over sized bike bag before catching the train to Copenhagen  airport... or the train to Stockholm...

local BP doesnt cut it im afraid.... dont believe those Z add's.... so 1960's

bra.... no that does not mean that... its slang for see you later... or  "vi ses"

in german "Bis später"

who doesnt know that...

[Waltzing]

Critical information....

A letter can take a month to travel out of town in moscow.. that is from centre to outer city towns near by...

Letters are hand sorted.... that right the sorting machines are broken....

Cars sales of the Lada are down 30 percent on last year...

imagine that if car sales was down 30 percent in NZ...

Moscow is running on fumes....

and you might think US support is really important to european defence...

but can sweden defend europe ? maybe not with space based laser ray guns....

but check this out....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY1muG16z-8

[snapiti]

get the chippies and dip, grab a beverage or two as the China US trade war is a  bit like watching a 12 round UFC match, I reckon we are about to start round 5 with Trump coming out swinging hard and winning in round 1 & 2 whilst taking a few counter punches from China, now China is jabbing away and has won round 3 and 4........has Trump exhausted himself in the early rounds, plenty of rounds to come, I think China is in a bit more pain than most want to believe that is not to say Trump is winning. 

round 5 & 6 go to China with staunch defense and Trump seemingly crying in the corner suffering exhaustion from coming out to quickly, egg on his face not helping

[Waltzing]

"coming out to quickly,"

classic...

yes the real thinkers and power players in the US are now stepping forward and arnt afraid to weight in at last.,...


https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/24/business/ken-griffin-trump-trade-war-brand/index.html


The Norway boys in the white house today basically ran the show on CNN last night...

They probably play a better game of golf too...

[snapiti]

lets not forget Trump is an extreme narsisist.....so you can expect a whole bunch of I am amazing propaganda coming about "what a great trade deal he has got" I expect several months of this......all hale the orange king......lol

[Waltzing]

right well china just showed him the bird again today.... no deal....

the head cowboys of the big retailers have warned shops could be bare shelved in weeks...

and Jake Bro vissile man from Oklahoma down on the range says Chump will hate it in a few months when ukriane fights on.... and Chump will turn on russia...

that more turns than a Canterbury river....

some one said above get out the pop corn.. how much pop corn are we going to need?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRqTEVu6gbQ

[Waltzing]

and we now know chump wants hotels in russias moscow....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slIB6s48m98

apparently UK has One type 45 D that is operational at the moment...

wonder if we can help out?

[snapiti]

well I reckon about 3 months popcorn should do it.
I think China are putting on a brave face, if US retail shelves are empty that is very bad for China also.
However China thinks very long term, Donald Duck just thinks about how he looks.
China doing the rest of the world a favor by fighting back.