Geopolitical Risk

[BlackPeter]

is that round one to china then? other items including solar apparently... there will be a list somewhere...

bond yield on T still went back up and the 30 year pushing up as well?

it all went wrong... wonder why..

they are speaking of getting some help from allies....

wonder who they are... that was the Pacific trade pac...

Actually - round two doesn't look too promising for the US either. China stopped the export of rare earth minerals, essential for the production of many semiconductors as well as for the production of electric cars. Ah yes - and they do have more than 90% of the world market (for some of the minerals more than 99%).

Shipments of the magnets, essential for assembling everything from cars and drones to robots and missiles, have been halted at many Chinese ports while the Chinese government drafts a new regulatory system. Once in place, the new system could permanently prevent supplies from reaching certain companies, including American military contractors.

from https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html (paywalled, but if you register you get 10 free per month).

and here is the Youtube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZJOssF87qc

Just wondering how the self appointed genius in the white house will manage without rare earths to keep his industry and military running - apparantly he can't even supply his awful forces anymore with new drones.

Dumb, dumber - bunch of idiots running the white house, but this is what you get if you allow a narcisstic idiot to surround himself with YES-men. Nobody left to ask the difficult questions.

[Waltzing]

hell invade Ukraine!!!!!  after Canada and Green land... digging for rare earths... then russia....

world war 3 was started by Team DUMP and DUMMER ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D2Rzo8JDMY

[Waltzing]

could coffee prices bring down the US current administration...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5pm1WaczLw

[snapiti]

Trump seems determined to shake up the world trade order, especially China, really can not see this ending well for NZ due to our reliance on China as a major export destination.
Hopefully an agreement will be reach, quickly, between the two super powers but damage is already being done and it won't take long for that to be irreversible.

[BlackPeter]

Trump seems determined to shake up the world trade order, especially China, really can not see this ending well for NZ due to our reliance on China as a major export destination.
Hopefully an agreement will be reach, quickly, between the two super powers but damage is already being done and it won't take long for that to be irreversible.

Nobody will trust the US again - I guess even if they pick next time again a more decent strongman, the world knows now that one can't trust these guys. On the whim of a populist ballot they can turn bad again and put people into power disregarding previous comittments and international law.

Damage already done.

Interestingly - US share in world trade is only around 10% (Well, it was 9% in 2019, don't have a newer number). Clearly time for the remaining 90% to to just avoid the US. Sure - it will be a bit of a rough patch in rerouting the trade network around the Banana Republic of Bullystan, but afterwards - just imagine the heavenly peace of everybody else peacefully trading and sticking to the rules and Trump just playing with his small hands .... and shrinking the US economy to make it fit for his small mind.

Heaven.

[BlackPeter]

Good one:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-orders-halts-boeing-jet-deliveries-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-04-15/

Anyway hard to understand why China was prepared to buy accident prone Boeing planes. Good that they now changed their mind.

Time for American planes to crash on American soil!

[Waltzing]

air bus wont be able to cope....

Team DUMP now warning... NO ONE is allowed to trade with China...

NO ONE!!! got that.... good...

on other issues...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUFq6-92Or4

on a more serious note has china already won...

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/15/business/china-trumps-trade-war-rare-earth-intl-hnk/index.html


and is DUMP really going to turn into a dictator that will kill... well if we look at what happened in Kursk and his complete lack of interest in military personal who have died...

List to Jake Bro basically saying the US is on the way to Hell...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im2-N-GYZ8k

what will Dictator DUMP do to stay in power... Putin started a war...

how will DUMP stay in Power...

[snapiti]

get the chippies and dip, grab a beverage or two as the China US trade war is a  bit like watching a 12 round UFC match, I reckon we are about to start round 5 with Trump coming out swinging hard and winning in round 1 & 2 whilst taking a few counter punches from China, now China is jabbing away and has won round 3 and 4........has Trump exhausted himself in the early rounds, plenty of rounds to come, I think China is in a bit more pain than most want to believe that is not to say Trump is winning. 

[Waltzing]

the problem is its going to disrupt the price of chips... as everything is priced global...

and MR P is telling it like it is and the market hasnt woken up yet...

you cant just air lift factories into place...

and the big markets are actually about to emerge over the next 25 -50 years and they arnt the US..

as we all know the big populations are India and Asia....

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/12/economy/recession-tariff-trump/index.html?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc

Expect the worst ...... this looks like a horror movie...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/trade-war-fallout-china-freight-ship-decline-begins-orders-plummet.html


The transports is where you see the crash coming...

[Waltzing]

T say the war wasnt started by Z... gosh... not fake news then....

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g7wdw9jvno

that minerals deal is back on... US desperate for stuff to put into there toys of war...

2027 -2030 before US can refine and process its own dirt....

expensive though... and that means? higher yields on the T's here to stay... that 30 year pushing what?

[Waltzing]

well the UK  is no longer an Allie of the US?

Jake Bro warns  the US is no longer an active member in NATO.... funding over and .... the fed will be over run...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ3Ms7JlOqQ

the implications for investors is was the US the best place to invest after all?

probably not...

[BlackPeter]

well the UK  is no longer an Allie of the US?

Jake Bro warns  the US is no longer an active member in NATO.... funding over and .... the fed will be over run...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ3Ms7JlOqQ

the implications for investors is was the US the best place to invest after all?

probably not...

Investors hear Donalds message loud and clear. Just look at the fall of the US dollar since he started his tariff wars. So far the fall of the US Dollar looks like a steady downtrend. Wondering whether Donald the Dumb manages to turn it into a stampede?

You cannot view this attachment.

[Waltzing]

Gut gemacht....

le corbusier... utopia is tomorrows future....

 each tree apparently was protected in 1952...  his vision of utopia.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandigarh_Capitol_Complex

now that the modern version of the KKK is in the white house....

every country in the western world will pressured to give up democracy and modern liberal life...

[Waltzing]

Ok it looks like the Kangas are doing it again. remember in WW2 where manufacturing in aus stepped up to fill the demand for weapons....

well it looks like they are doing it again... could AUS scale up and become a major manufacturing hub again...

If youve got ASX shares then maybe the KANGA LAND is the place to be..

this metal 3 D printer is mobile and being use on the front lines...

Wes is always creating interesting content...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vm9Dl_ACSxk


has ukraine just created a pedator in the black sea...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__I9gGMh6oc

[lorraina]

https://youtu.be/r5ojbEIX8Nw