Geopolitical Risk

[BlackPeter]

and this is why the US needs friends....

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/08/business/us-south-korea-military-shipbuilding-deal-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Hope Dump budgeted for all the tariffs the US needs to pay to import these South Korea build warships ;

[Waltzing]

they will get a exception surely...oh NO they wont... they arnt Russia...

 

[BlackPeter]

... ok, Davexl predicted Australia reviewing their AUCUS decision already in January (i.e. you read it first on this thread), but now even mainstream media seem to notice that nobody can trust the US anymore (no matter what the gorilla with the mindset of a kindergarten bully does next) - and Australia seems now to look for better alliances. I guess really, who wants to (and who can) rely on a country forcing a raging kindergarten bully upon its allies who changes his mind daily?

Makes one dizzy.

What a pathetic country the US turned into - Lots of power but no brain. Something like a tank controlled by an untested AI system in an endless loop.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/15/the-new-reality-dawning-in-australia-it-can-no-longer-rely-on-the-us

[snapiti]

I did a bit of research on who holds the cards when it comes to a trade war and now firmly believe Trump has a very powerful hand.
This is not to say that it will end well.
My concern is, based on my research, is the US/China trade war will effect NZ and AUS far greater than is currently priced into the markets.
A slow down in China(there will be a huge slow down if tariffs stick) will be far greater than most predict.
Not only will China exports slow dramactically to the US but the cost of feeding the pigs in China will sky rocket.
The biggest import into China from the US is soy bean extract, primarily used in pork production to feed the poeple.
Lets not forget there is only so much money to go round in any particular country.
Based on my research NZ log exports will be hit hard to China, mainly due to lower demand for their furniture exports to the US which is the third highest by $ value into the US, however if Chinese economy slows so will home building rates.
A slowing China very bad for NZ and AUS.......do your own research

[Waltzing]

well buy SB futures...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/192058/production-of-soybeans-for-beans-in-the-us-since-2000/

AUS has 21 hectors in production and wants to double it by 2033

On the other hand BOEING wont be profitable... the planes parts are made all round the world...

[BlackPeter]

I did a bit of research on who holds the cards when it comes to a trade war and now firmly believe Trump has a very powerful hand.
This is not to say that it will end well.
My concern is, based on my research, is the US/China trade war will effect NZ and AUS far greater than is currently priced into the markets.
A slow down in China(there will be a huge slow down if tariffs stick) will be far greater than most predict.
Not only will China exports slow dramactically to the US but the cost of feeding the pigs in China will sky rocket.
The biggest import into China from the US is soy bean extract, primarily used in pork production to feed the poeple.
Lets not forget there is only so much money to go round in any particular country.
Based on my research NZ log exports will be hit hard to China, mainly due to lower demand for their furniture exports to the US which is the third highest by $ value into the US, however if Chinese economy slows so will home building rates.
A slowing China very bad for NZ and AUS.......do your own research

No doubt - tradewars are always bad for any country relying on trade. This includes NZ, China and the US. Does not need a rocket scientist and lots of research to uncover that.

Not sure however what makes you believe that Dumb has a strong hand. He blinked already in his chicken game when the bond markets told him so, and he will again. Sure - he is dumb as straw, but there must be still somebody in the once GoP, who wants the Republican party to survive the next election, don't you think so? Many happy Liz Truss moments to him.

[Mos]

Chinese exports to the USA only 3% of China's GDP and 15% of China's total exports (managed down from 20% a few years ago). With those stats, and China's greater ability to withstand tough times, it does not seem like Trump's cards are as strong as he pretends. Voters of the USA more likely to force their Government to fold than citizens of China in my view.

[Left Field]

......it does not seem like Trump's cards are as strong as he pretends. Voters of the USA more likely to force their Government to fold than citizens of China in my view.

Agree

I may be wrong, but isn't the US due for mid term elections around Nov 2025 that could lose the Republicans their Senate majority ??
 
Trump needs to solve his own goal trade war in the short term...... China can afford to be patient.

[snapiti]

No doubt - tradewars are always bad for any country relying on trade. This includes NZ, China and the US. Does not need a rocket scientist and lots of research to uncover that.

Not sure however what makes you believe that Dumb has a strong hand. He blinked already in his chicken game when the bond markets told him so, and he will again. Sure - he is dumb as straw, but there must be still somebody in the once GoP, who wants the Republican party to survive the next election, don't you think so? Many happy Liz Truss moments to him.

"Does not need a rocket scientist and lots of research to uncover that" one could use the same analogy  when  deciphering HGH last few reports, still however some foolishly continue to hold the stock.......now down 30% in 4 months
Classic case of what is obvious to some not so obvious to others ah

[Mos]

Agree

I may be wrong, but isn't the US due for mid term elections around Nov 2025 that could lose the Republicans their Senate majority ??
 
Trump needs to solve his own goal trade war in the short term...... China can afford to be patient.

Mid term elections Nov 2026 I believe.

Ironic that Trump has chosen to double down on his trade war with the one country America is not well positioned to bully into submission. With many American companies' supply chains dependent on Chinese manufacturing and Chinese companies' having minimal dependence on America from a supply chain perspective, it just adds to the self harm the White House is inflicting on its companies, consumers and voters. Apparently Trump is a multi dimensional chess playing genius though - that might ease the pain for Americans. It is going to be hard for Trump to back down from his China fight as he has really painted himself into a tricky corner. I suspect the CCP will quite enjoy watching him squirm in the weeks and months ahead.

[Waltzing]

although this tuber is usually about UKRN this channel was about stocks before 2022...

This broadcast is about the US market and JB brings it down on the ground in the mid west...

Young lady discussing her business...

CDUMP blinked when the bond market gittered apparently...

The BM is the tail that wags the dog...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeugL6jV3W4

[Mos]

Trump already folded on smartphone, computer and electronics tariffs.

Jon Stewart sums up things pretty well pre this announcement - some tragicomedy.
Jon Stewart on Trump Tariffs

[TraderRay]

Replace Village People with Tom Petty

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvlTJrNJ5lA

[Waltzing]

is that round one to china then? other items including solar apparently... there will be a list somewhere...

bond yield on T still went back up and the 30 year pushing up as well?

it all went wrong... wonder why..

they are speaking of getting some help from allies....

wonder who they are... that was the Pacific trade pac...

[Mos]

is that round one to china then? other items including solar apparently... there will be a list somewhere...

bond yield on T still went back up and the 30 year pushing up as well?

it all went wrong... wonder why..

they are speaking of getting some help from allies....

wonder who they are... that was the Pacific trade pac...

Yep, even the penguins are offside.