Geopolitical Risk

[Davexl]

Could this be the feared RS-26 reported earlier today, or something else ?  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-threatens-to-strike-kyiv-with-massive-new-missile/WAWQ44WYDJHLLCY7PR5E4ORPQY/

Ukraine claims Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile for first time during war

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/nov/21/russia-ukraine-war-live-storm-shadow-missiles-kyiv-putin-zelenskyy?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-673ee7e98f08b8d1c90a72c1#block-673ee7e98f08b8d1c90a72c1

[Davexl]

Turns out the missile was an Intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) fitted with a MIRVed (Multiple, independently targeted) hypersonic warhead, capable of hitting the UK, not the US - vs an ICBM.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/nov/21/russia-ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-updates?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with%3Ablock-673f8f2d8f087ff7bcc42ae5#block-673f8f2d8f087ff7bcc42ae5

[Davexl]

Early Trump troubles...

From Bloomberg:

Matt Gaetz is withdrawing from consideration to be US attorney general in the first major defeat for Donald Trump. The US president-elect wanted the controversial former Congressman to upend the Justice Department and potentially use it to target his political enemies. Gaetz, the subject of investigations ranging over allegations including sex trafficking of a minor and drug use, has categorically denied any wrongdoing. An earlier federal criminal probe of him was eventually dropped. But Trump's problems don't end there, as his selection of Russia-friendly Tulsi Gabbard for national intelligence director, vaccine-skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for secretary of Health and Human Services and cable television host Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense may also be in jeopardy. In the case of Hegseth, who has no high-level experience in government or the military and is of deep concern to the Pentagon for other reasons, the Associated Press today reported new details of sexual assault allegations from 2017. Hegseth has denied any wrongdoing. —David E. Rovella

[BlackPeter]

Early Trump troubles...

From Bloomberg:

Matt Gaetz is withdrawing from consideration to be US attorney general in the first major defeat for Donald Trump. The US president-elect wanted the controversial former Congressman to upend the Justice Department and potentially use it to target his political enemies. Gaetz, the subject of investigations ranging over allegations including sex trafficking of a minor and drug use, has categorically denied any wrongdoing. An earlier federal criminal probe of him was eventually dropped. But Trump's problems don't end there, as his selection of Russia-friendly Tulsi Gabbard for national intelligence director, vaccine-skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for secretary of Health and Human Services and cable television host Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense may also be in jeopardy. In the case of Hegseth, who has no high-level experience in government or the military and is of deep concern to the Pentagon for other reasons, the Associated Press today reported new details of sexual assault allegations from 2017. Hegseth has denied any wrongdoing. —David E. Rovella

I can see why Tump loves Matt Gaetz. Trump loves himself, and Matt is basically a moral clone of him.

[Davexl]

Sounds pretty spot on BP - have to read this book on one of our anti-Trumps then...

Merkel: I mistook Trump for 'someone completely normal'

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/21/angela-merkel-i-mistook-donald-trump-for-someone-completely-normal

[Davexl]

More preparations underway...(Doesn't appear in online media, saw it in Sunday Herald's print version initially)

Austin Bolsters U.S. Cooperation with Fiji, Concludes 12th Trip to Indo-Pacific

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3976773/austin-bolsters-us-cooperation-with-fiji-concludes-12th-trip-to-indo-pacific/

[Waltzing]

Is the biggest risk now that news is not news ... its all AI generated...at RT at least and how long before all news is delivered via ...

AI RT news ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq3P_UZiSTg


Max you were ahead of your time ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYdpOjletnc

[Davexl]

For those who don't get the NZ Herald - register & read the W. Post

Opinion
How a 'rightfully traumatized' NATO can survive Donald Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/26/rutte-trump-nato-united-states/

[Davexl]

Russia's sabotage of western targets 'could trigger Nato defence clause'

German intelligence chief warns continued hybrid warfare by Moscow increases risk of alliance invoking Article 5

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/27/russia-sabotage-of-west-may-prompt-nato-defence-clause


Note also the Defence Capability Plan is now due out "in the new year", after its latest delay...
Hope the money for 3-4 General Purpose frigates is in there - else no credibility left in Defence for NZ...

[Plata]

Why do you favour frigates? From a purely defensive point of view I would have thought anti-missile, anti-air and anti-ship equipment would suit us best.

[BlackPeter]

Why do you favour frigates? From a purely defensive point of view I would have thought anti-missile, anti-air and anti-ship equipment would suit us best.

I guess it depends what you want to do. If its just defending our two islands against direct attack and invasion, you are probably right. However - if we want as well to protect our links to the rest of the world (we might want to do some trade), we need as well ships ... and I am not even sure whether three frigates will do the job to protect all the ships coming an going to NZ. Plenty of water around NZ. And that's not even considering our economical interests in the huge water body around NZ and Antarctica.

[Davexl]

Abandoning Ukraine means 'infinitely higher' long-term security costs, MI6 chief says

If Putin allowed to reduce Ukraine to vassal state 'he will not stop there', Richard Moore says in plea to Trump

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/29/abandoning-ukraine-infinitely-higher-costs-head-of-mi6

[Waltzing]

Well dont worry to much about the south china seas at the moment as the concrete used to build the land bases was not very high quality and the island are suffering from global warming threats... they will and are sinking already and the concrete structures are not weathering well ... runways might also be under pressure. Very expensive repairs may already be required and china will find out the true cost of a blue water navy and power projection.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/02/russia-ukraine-war-listen-daily-podcast/

reports from the reports globe trotting... reports from the sniffers... ah reports of world class.

BP's most hated news paper.

[Davexl]

Applies to NZ also...

As important as Ukraine is, a Taiwan war must be Australia's biggest worry - Paul Dibb

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/as-important-as-ukraine-is-a-taiwan-war-must-be-australias-biggest-worry/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Weekly%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Weekly%20The%20Strategist+CID_7dd74b1c2cc93b81a06d37a60d894892&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=As%20important%20as%20Ukraine%20is%20a%20Taiwan%20war%20must%20be%20Australias%20biggest%20worry

[Davexl]

from Bloomberg:

Donald Trump's inflammatory selection for America's top intelligence post may be at risk of becoming his second post-election defeat when it comes to a slew of highly controversial cabinet picks. Tulsi Gabbard, the Democrat-turned-Republican who sided with Russia over its war on Ukraine, met secretly with a key Russian ally and is often praised by Russian state media, is under renewed scrutiny. Already the subject of caution by some Republicans, key Democrats are warning that if confirmed she'll endanger national security, because allies will limit intelligence cooperation out of fear their secrets won't be safe. Other Republicans meanwhile are lining up to defend her nomination.

Tulsi Gabbard speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference  in Orlando, Florida, in 2022.  Photographer: Bloomberg