Retail Stocks

[Waltzing]

Warning warning warning... AUGUSt !!!

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128669/economists-say-interest-rates-could-be-cut-soon-august-after-reserve-bank-performs-

crikey is why some property stocks are starting to ramp up in volumns....

that would mean the ship is actually sinking and the NET immgration figures are showing something that CPI isnt ...

that the rats are leaving the ship...

but wait in sydney they are saying the same thing ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhUZAXVGewg

[Waltzing]

Food Food glorious Food .... (musical oliver)

https://www.stuff.co.nz/money/350339309/food-prices-have-largest-annual-decrease-six-years

[Waltzing]

Points made on the warehouse thread by posters on head office count should be a key new metric?

be interesting to compare HLG, KMD, BRISC, even TRA to see what these operations have in common with HQ operations...

Some like TRA have other operations such as finance and insurance. To see how these are structured inside these businesses would be a great PHD for a business studies grad at one of the UNI's.

[BlackPeter]

Points made on the warehouse thread by posters on head office count should be a key new metric?

be interesting to compare HLG, KMD, BRISC, even TRA to see what these operations have in common with HQ operations...

Some like TRA have other operations such as finance and insurance. To see how these are structured inside these businesses would be a great PHD for a business studies grad at one of the UNI's.

Yes, maybe.

Problem is - I don't think it is easy to determine the optimal size of a HQ without detailled knowledge of this particular company. Obviously - if HQ is too small, this is as bad as if it's too big (just look at the extremes) ... and I suspect as well that the optimal size of a HQ is as well dependent on the complexity of the industry, the overall size of the business, and of course dependent on how it is organised. There are clearly tasks which are better done in the HQ, there are tasks which are clearly better done in the branch, and there are tasks where it does not matter (but it still changes the ratio).

So, yes - it is clearly worthwhile to consider as well the "bloatedness" of a business, but I think it will be difficult to turn this into an easy to measure and generically to apply indicator ... and this is before we consider the impact of the observer effect (management will be happy to do a lot of dumb things just to make one indicator which people watch look better).

[Basil]

How many of those 1000 head office staff have been managing The Market.com, Torpedo 7 and how many have been laser focused on all things ESG.  You might be able to halve head office numbers if you get rid of all the endless amounts of dross.

A lifetime ago, I once did a short stint as a junior auditor with the Waitemata District Council.  One thing a very senior manager said to me was the amount of wastage in this organization is absolutely phenomenal.  If I was in charge the first thing I would do is fire 75% of the people here.
Maybe that's what they should do at the WHS head office.  So many people earning more than $200,000 its absolutely incredible.  It's just a retailer for goodness' sake.

[KW]

Not sure if this is good news or bad news for Aus/NZ fashion retailers.  The article doesnt mention where they are shopping.  If its from local stores its good news.  If its from the likes of Shein or Temu then its bad news.  

https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2024/07/16/online-shopping-fashion

[Waltzing]

will the RBNZ hand be forced with the JUNE data out in AUGUST ....

 retail stocks still in the doldrums for another year or 2?

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128772/politicians-didn%E2%80%99t-use-fiscal-policy-fight-inflation-and-should-just-stop
 

[Waltzing]

AUS retail might be showing some signs of bottoming but not NZ...

TRA already bouncing off the that DIP that you all bought right?

4.30 already

goo! that scrap metal car merchant ...

[Waltzing]

maybe having china this close will help with lowering inflation in the pacific area but europe has a shipping problem with its Asian trading partners ...

https://www.rferl.org/a/middle-corridor-china-ukraine-war/33041577.html

[BlackPeter]

maybe having china this close will help with lowering inflation in the pacific area but europe has a shipping problem with its Asian trading partners ...

https://www.rferl.org/a/middle-corridor-china-ukraine-war/33041577.html

Interesting.

But maybe its not just Europe (as buyer) having this problem, but China (as seller) as well. From that perspective one wonders why China is doing so little to control this naughty despot on their North West corner? Sure, he might be for them a useful idiot to test the resolve of the West, but he is as well blocking the silk route, which is essential for Chinas trade. Add to that the risk that Trump might shut down next year the gates to America and China will be isolated - leaving for them only SE Asia and Oceania to trade.

Hmm - interesting times, for sure.

[Waltzing]

Yes BP ... you have nailed it ... does it mean there are people in the CCP for whom the economy is not so important because they dont actually do the double entry book keeping...

maybe bitcoin could help ...  ChinaCoin next?

[Waltzing]

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128793/we-await-start-cuts-official-cash-rate-david-hargreaves-questions-what-damage

does not look like retail will return any time soon in NZ... worse than the GFC?  how could it have gone so wrong.....

thank goodness for AUS ....

[KW]

Aussie retailers lifting off again.  UNI reports -
Strong trading performance exiting FY24, with momentum continuing into July 2024 
Group sales are expected to be $288.5 million, up +9.7% on FY23 (FY23: $263.1 million)

[Basil]

Even those dumpster diving into the WHS have done okay lately, up a whopping 10.5% just on Friday !
Up nearly 25% from its low for the year of 93 cents.  (For the sake of clarity, I am not suggesting in any way that I think it's is a buy and I do not own any, nor am I intending on buying any)

What this does signal however is how forward looking the market is if a complete and utter train wreck like WHS can start to be repriced like that.  I think the market is already looking ahead to what impact the change in the Reserve Bank's tone suggests for interest rates and company profits in FY26, FY27 and beyond.  I am very comfortable with the tailwinds a much lower interest rate environment will provide for my big NZX positions in future years, namely TRA and HGH.  Interest rate cuts for TRA are like an immediate but also a sustained shot of adrenaline into its bloodstream with lower floating rate funding costs directly
 and immediately boosting profits with net interest margin expansion, (lower funding costs for previous higher fixed rate lending), but also boosting further retail demand, loan generation and insurance sales.  Lower interest rates are rocket fuel for profit growth for them and they've been amazingly resilient in super difficult financial times over the last 4 years.  Just watch them fly in the years ahead.

[Waltzing]

AND THE YEAR MONTH THE ECONOMY STOPPED...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/imports-plunge-new-zealand-records-669-million-goods-trade-surplus-for-june/UNQL3P6WSZGERD64WFZLLGKTQE/

DID THE ECONOMY JUST TANK? CRASH LAND??