Retail Stocks

[Waltzing]

Very very depressing view from SG... GFC then.. recession.. expect some companies to report losses.

and retail in NZ may not get much better but in OZ ... there might be light at the end of the tunnel...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/record-migrations-why-thousands-are-ditching-new-zealand-for-australia/OG5P5P33VFAJ5NHQI3IPGCGU2Y/

[Waltzing]

More to come ... hitting retail NZ? just a little bit more damage to come..

HLG 5 dollars?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stats-nz-another-26000-will-be-unemployed-before-peak-reached/3IL7SD4PZRAVXEJ4OMYMFBZT6E/

[Waltzing]

While markets might feel they are bottoming in the real world it may not be the case ... impacting on NZ spending patterns...

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/127867/kiwisaver-early-withdrawals-home-ownership-fall-while-financial-hardship

[Waltzing]

The RBNZ seems to think it bringing in the plane for a soft landing ... gear down...

Is that how it feels out in the valleys...

1 percent GDP means no losses in retail profit and loss statements ... right?

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127935/headline-inflation-should-still-hit-target-band-year-rbnz-has-brought-balance-back

[winner (n)]

Oh dear ... times are a changing

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350293847/iconic-auckland-retail-store-smith-caugheys-set-close

[Waltzing]

Slightly off topic...
Times are a changing ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNh5870rBkc

[Waltzing]

US retail still holding up... what happened down under ...

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128007/american-retail-strong-beige-book-says-overall-expansion-modest-imf-upgrades-china

[Waltzing]

will we see retail start to pick up in 2025?

""The economy is expected to gradually strengthen from the second half of 2024, with private sector incomes supported by the Budget 2024 tax package, a continuing recovery in tourism earnings and an easing inflation outlook enabling a gradual reduction in interest rates," Treasury said"

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/128012/treasury-forecasts-show-weak-economic-growth-will-keep-crown-accounts-deficit

[Waltzing]

This may have been posted on the forum already.

NZ Retails stats graph...  https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/retail-trade-survey-march-2024-quarter/

Sales volumes up in March
Nine of the 15 industries had higher seasonally adjusted sales volumes in the March 2024 quarter compared with the December 2023 quarter.

By industry, the largest movements were:

hardware, building, and garden supplies – down 2.8 percent
food and beverage services – up 2.2 percent
motor vehicle and parts retailing – up 1.1 percent
recreational goods retailing – up 4.7 percent
accommodation – up 4.1 percent.

[KW]

...Come June, there has been a significant surge in demand in all states except Victoria. Many are reporting sales rising above five per cent, which represents a significant movement.
...In recent years, my retail information group has been very accurate in relaying to the community (sometimes including the RBA) what is actually happening in the retail sector, particularly in the areas outside the 30 per cent of people who are mortgage or rent stressed. Accordingly, I am very confident about conveying this sudden switch.
There is little doubt that the rising spending has been triggered by the anticipation of tax cuts...

Bodes well for Australian retailers targeting that 30% of people with no mortgage or rent (aka young people living with their parents).  

Having recently returned from Melbourne, I can vouch that it is in a sad state, much like NZ.  While QLD is the opposite.  

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/rbas-rate-conundrum-as-economy-picks-up-in-all-states-except-victoria/news-story/ccf7e2f98d5c9e472160b0a572de1b33?amp

[Waltzing]

Some green shoot then... could NZ retail stocks be a bargain then...

New channels reporting economic trouble for NZ ... but was that the story a year and halve ago? only being reported
 now when the graph says ...

this could be the high point and by the time they come due the SP on the NZX might already be on the move..

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/128328/just-kiwibank-ends-its-good-one-year-special-term-deposit-offer-bnz-jumps

[Waltzing]

And some really good news

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/19/uk-inflation-may-2024.html

[Waltzing]

This is how they see it locally...

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/06/18/consumer-confidence-drops-to-only-just-above-historic-lows/

AI - invest in retail robots,  they are the future ... your new robot for home living .. and they have them ready to go.. bouncing off the walls of the labs...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29ECwExc-_M

[Waltzing]

NZ retail taking a bit of a bunch to the jaw... HLG  looks like a fighter stagging about ... bobbing and weaving ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFsBHR9nEJg

[Waltzing]

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/128442/peter-martin-explains-why-he-believes-australian-economy-about-turn