Retail Stocks

[KW]

Its not looking good for NZ retail....

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132500144/prices-set-to-rise-as-retailers-battle-high-costs-and-fear-of-closure

This bit was quite shocking.
"Most concerningly, 36% of retailers report that they are not confident, or not sure if they will survive the next 12 months.," Harford said.
"We have not seen these levels since the worst of the Covid-19 crisis. Over the last few months, we have seen a significant number of retail businesses take the decision to close their doors, and these latest numbers show that many businesses are on a knife-edge."

[Waltzing]

A Govt that did not understand what a business market policy actually was...

Dont think this government even cares... its to busy with its own image of woke ness and placating their base.

Bit like a ship sinking with everyone thinking its just some light rain....

[BlackPeter]

This bit was quite shocking.
"Most concerningly, 36% of retailers report that they are not confident, or not sure if they will survive the next 12 months.," Harford said.
"We have not seen these levels since the worst of the Covid-19 crisis. Over the last few months, we have seen a significant number of retail businesses take the decision to close their doors, and these latest numbers show that many businesses are on a knife-edge."

I love it - sounds like blood on the floor, and even the shoeshine boys and girls talk about exiting the industry.

This must be an amazing time for a well run retailer to buy out the competition , which means that even the retailers not doing that well might be already a bargain.

Maybe the time for investors to buy and for the rest to run for the hills is nigh - though, who knows, it might have been passed already.

Lets stop eating to make this crisis we are talking ourselves in really bad, shall we?

[Waltzing]

NZ is a long from the markets of the world..

and sometimes its just easier to pack up and go closure to where the products are actually used... or eaten..

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kevin-jenkins-it-isnt-easy-being-a-small-cheesemaker-in-nz/OEJNA5HJOZGUPBBBAWBKFJY6YA/

but you would think with global warming and cost of transport surely going sky high in the next decade NZ would not lose the local cheeses?

AT least lets hope the wine makers dont go the same way.

[Crackity]

Tony Alexander today - he's an economist so often wrong 🤔

This month's survey of half of the 30,000 subscribers to my weekly Tony's View shows a fresh deterioration in consumer spending plans following an improvement in June.

A net 38% of the 726 respondents plan cutting spending in the next 3-6 months.
Spending plans have been waxing and waning at poor levels for six months now as people grapple with high borrowing costs, the rapid rise in the cost of living, falling house prices up until recently, yet a strong labour market.

Do you feel confident enough about your future to increase spending over the next 3-6 months?

A net 38% of survey respondents say they will cut their spending in the next 3 – 6 months.

This is a deterioration from a net 21% planning spending cutbacks a month ago but still slightly better than the net 42% on May.
The overall result bodes poorly for retailer sales over the remainder of 2023.
Where will people spend more?
We ask people what things they plan spending more on and what they plan spending less on. From these responses we can calculate net purchasing intentions for the categories we cover and the results for this month are shown in the following chart.
There are only two areas where more people plan boosting spending than cutting it. The first is groceries, obviously because of higher prices etc etc blah blah blah

[KW]

AT least lets hope the wine makers dont go the same way.

They already are.   Instead of exporting bottled wine we now export raw grape juice. 
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/indevin-ceo-on-moving-kiwi-wine-to-the-uk-after-20-years-in-business/NTIAHHO2LJCBJCF2NUWOFUSA2U/

Chief executive Duncan McFarlane says that from February next year, half of Villa Maria's bottling will move to the UK.
"This is not news because all the staff are aware," McFarlane told the Herald.
Newsroom reported last month that Villa Maria's Kiwi staff, based in Māngere, are expecting mass redundancies. 

[Waltzing]

Come back in summer march 2025....nothing going to happen in the mean time is there?

mass ? oh dear....

its going to be bleak local SP prices in retail for a while then?

[Waltzing]

And what is the implications for retail....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/stock-takes-podcast-how-much-worse-will-unemployment-become/K3HMAFFSGVEH7KRSEGWXBZANAM/

[Shareguy]

And what is the implications for retail....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/stock-takes-podcast-how-much-worse-will-unemployment-become/K3HMAFFSGVEH7KRSEGWXBZANAM/

Not good. I'm involved in retail. I have never seen things so bad. Shop keepers powerless to stop theft which is at epidemic proportions. Police not interested. Shop keepers and staff can't even hold somebody. They don't even run these days, just calmly walk out the door laughing at you.

You also have to contend with outgoings going through the roof with insurance premiums up over 30 percent alone. Staff wanting pay rises and customers buying more and more on line.

So I think it going to get worse. Sold out of only retail stock KMD some time ago.

[Waltzing]

Ok SG should NZ have privatised prisons... the whole lot and then NZ SHAZ can buys shares in that... kinda like the Retirement sector but this one needs a new name?

Lets hope the Listed Retailer can come through this so called TR (technical recession).

[Shareguy]

Ok SG should NZ have privatised prisons... the whole lot and then NZ SHAZ can buys shares in that... kinda like the Retirement sector but this one needs a new name?

Lets hope the Listed Retailer can come through this so called TR (technical recession).

Interesting. Don't think making money out of people's misery would go down well waltzing. I also think it's the governments job to handle incarceration.

In my opinion the law needs to be changed to allow retailers to at least hold people until the police arrived. Proper penalties in place and most importantly a lot more police. We have less per population than even Fiji.

You only need to go into some of the dairy's in south Auckland to realise we have a problem. Shop keepers in metal cages. It's just not right.

[Waltzing]

And economy looks to be as bad as you suggest SG....

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/public-service-bosses-called-in-as-government-accounts-plunge-deeper-into-the-red/CKEBIEWIAFA5TBOUCMFXR4YK3Y/

its look a bit sad ... a trading market now... not so much investing ...

[KW]

Interesting. Don't think making money out of people's misery would go down well waltzing. I also think it's the governments job to handle incarceration.

Around 20% of Australia's prisons are privately run.  Four main operators - Serco is listed on the London Stock Exchange (SRP), GEO Group is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (GEO), G4S (private company) and MTC-Broadspectrum which is part of Ventia and listed on the ASX (VNT)   

[KW]

According to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), retail sales volumes in Australia declined 0.5% in the June quarter of 2023, the third consecutive quarterly fall.
It comes after a 0.8% fall in the March quarter of 2023 and a 0.4% drop in the December quarter of 2022.

According to Ben Dorber, ABS's head of retail statistics, the drop in retail sales volumes demonstrates the extent to which consumers have cut back on spending in response to cost-of-living challenges.

"It's the first time since 2008 that retail sales volumes have recorded three consecutive quarterly falls", he said.
"Retail sales volumes are down 1.4% compared to the June quarter last year. Outside of the pandemic period, this is the first time since 1991 that sales volumes have fallen compared to the previous year."

However, clothing sales volumes are up, while prices are down.  Make of that what you will

You cannot view this attachment.

[Waltzing]

Since its Winter will reach for a HOT  MILO and hope 2024 -25 brings better times.... and an percentage increase in retail stat's..