Retail Stocks

[winner (n)]

Some commentators in Australia have coined the phrase 'inflation lockdown' when it comes to dire straits retail is in

[KW]

Aussie inflation came in at 5.6% today.  Retail stocks getting a lift off the backdraft of a potential rate pause

[Waltzing]

yep lets hope someone pushes the alarm button in moscow and makes sure there grain exports and ukraine hit the markets...

Lets hope the TURKS keep it flowing...

[winner (n)]

Jeez - A very strong retail sales number for May released by the ABS this morning. Up 0.7% MoM vs expectations of +0.1%.

And 4.2%  higher than May last year

Aussies still spending

[Basil]

Thanks mate, its increasingly looking like an economic soft landing on both sides of the Tasman.
ANZ reckon business confidence is bouncing back to the highest level since late 2021
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/business-confidence-bounce-suggests-worst-could-be-over-anz/KTH3HHRSYFCMHHXQWAUJZQZ2KQ/
Have we, or are we in the process or bottoming out ?

[winner (n)]

Probably never been a recession anyway ...just a bit of weaker economic growth than normal

Won't read that in the papers or see that on TV will you.

[Basil]

Just a note of caution though. petrol tax going back on this weekend will add another 29 cents per liter and drive inflation a bit including road user charges for Trucks going back up to where it was driving transport costs up.  Yet another excuse for supermarkets, (not that they appear to need one), to increase their prices yet again....

[winner (n)]

Things can't be too bad if tens of thousands of Kiwis and hundreds of thousands of Aussies paying hundreds of dollars to go to a Taylor Swift concert.....and forking out a small fortune to fly to Oz to see her

What recession

[Basil]

I think it's wise to remember that you, I and many others on here are not short of a quid and have no mortgage so we're not feeling it but for those that are sailing pretty close to the wind, increases in the cost of living do make a big difference especially when they're not matched by the same percentage increase in income.  I think the Taylor Swift thing is a lot of fans feel this is a once in a lifetime or once in a many years experience so I think for many fans there will be a bit of scrimping and saving going on in other area's of their budget so they can afford it.

[winner (n)]

Punters getting happier and likely to keep spending https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2023/ANZ-ConsumerConfidence-20230630.pdf

[KW]

Jeez - A very strong retail sales number for May released by the ABS this morning. Up 0.7% MoM vs expectations of +0.1%.

And 4.2%  higher than May last year

Aussies still spending

Not all retail though

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[Fiordland Moose]

Indeed and relevant to include the ABS specifically noted retailers had brought forward seasonal promotions (which would have normally would have occurred later in winter (ie august).

From one bank economist

" The surprise rise was partially driven by larger and earlier than usual promotional activities and sales events in May, according to the ABS.

If this strength in May was representative of a 'pull‑forward' in spending to take advantage of discounts, this could be at the expense of future spending. The ABS likened the increase to last year's Black Friday sales, where retail spending rose by 1.7%% in November.  But, importantly, retail trade then fell in December by 3.9%%."

Anecdotally am aware the discounting is high.

If 1H FY24 promotions are pulled forward into the v end of FY23 in an attempt to compensate for a rapidly deteriorating trading environment before financial year end, 1H Fy24 is going to look positively horrendous on the previous period as 1H FY23 represented the absolute peak in Australian retail trading, and 1H winter promotions will have already been had.

I note Harvey Norman came out with a profit shocker two days ago, but not surprising the segment they operate in.

All well and good that 2H FY23 started quite strong for most australasian retailers, with the worm only turning in 2nd to last week of May. From my perspective much pain will be felt at the mid year FY24 mark.

That could throw up a few opportunities, depending on how spending stabilises or not at normalised levels in the intervening period.

[Waltzing]

clothes and stuff down... they are going off to the movies maybe...they havnt bought winter clothes yet...

fake reports , watch out for fake reports...

[BlackPeter]

Things can't be too bad if tens of thousands of Kiwis and hundreds of thousands of Aussies paying hundreds of dollars to go to a Taylor Swift concert.....and forking out a small fortune to fly to Oz to see her

What recession

Good point, I wondered that as well. They say people have to skip meals and go to the foodbank and than they are able to fork out many hundreds of dollars for going to a concert. Hmm ...

But then - maybe they skimp on the return ticket and stay on the other side of the ditch instead?

[Shareguy]

Was in Vancouver last week where the talk has been about the decimation of big retail. Nordstrom closing all branches in Canada. Only one department store left in Vancouver. Apparently people are preferring on line to physical stores. The  increase in store thefts and difficulty getting staff all adding to increase costs. Retailers increasing prices a catalyst for consumers to buy cheaper on line. Seems you can only increase your price so much.


Disc. I added Amazon and a few other beaten down American stocks last year.  Sold out of only retail stock KMD a while ago.

In Alaska now, off to see some bears.