Retail Stocks

[KW]

Retail in the provinces ...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/farmers-worry-about-huge-costs-imf-assesses-nz-economy/NYAHDHPWKVGCBEQYPBR2PDGALA/

Guess that guy will be one of the ones that Labour want to force off their land, with the closure of 25% of farms in order to meet emissions targets.  What they forget is that the towns economy goes with those farmers.  Places like Timaru, Ashburton and Amberley (to name but a few) exist to service the farming industry, they have no other source of income.  When the farms go, so too will those small towns.  And when the towns go, the remaining farms will find it difficult to attract workers, so they will soon fail too. 

[Waltzing]

In the central WAKA TOO there are a lot of small to mid sized country towns that are dependent on Farming INCLUDING HAMILTON....

[Habitz]

No credible economist I know defines a recession as two negative quarters. People who adopt that approach are either lazy thinkers or down right stupid. Quote Professor Arthur Grimes

Media love it though ......did you see the big red arrow pointing down on TV news last night and Jessica raving on showing she's possibly one of the stupid ones.

And Robbo makes a statement that we are probably out of recession before one was confirmed. Is he proving Arthur Grimes position right.

When is the next quarter released, before or after October 14

[winner (n)]

GDP is a broad measure of the country's economic activity.

NZ's GDP for year to March 2003 was $279.2 billion (real in 2009/2010 prices .... ie inflation eliminated)

This is higher than Sept 2022 and has never been higher - a record in fact

But we are in recession - weird eh

Economic growth might be slowing but it's not going backwards ..... and inflaton in nominal terms some might say its booming.

[Basil]

Falling GDP two quarters in a row meets the technical definition of a recession but Q1 2023 by the barest of margins, (0.1%) and could easily be revised to be flat or very slightly positive in due course.  Soft landing looking much more likely now than a hard one.

[winner (n)]

Falling GDP two quarters in a row meets the technical definition of a recession but Q1 2023 by the barest of margins, (0.1%) and could easily be revised to be flat or very slightly positive in due course.  Soft landing looking much more likely now than a hard one.

They use seasonally adjusted numbers to come to that conclusion

Currently in real terms GDP is not falling (eliminating inflation impacts) ..the economy is still expanding

Stuff this seasonally adjusted stuff ......just as well outfits like TRA don't report seasonally adjusted earnings ...they possibly be in an earnings recession at the moment and hoping for a soft landing.

[Onemootpoint]

From:

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/122562/us-sentiment-improves-japan-holds-rates-singapore-exports-slump-sweden-faces

"Oddly, New Zealand may not actually be in a real recession despite the dodgy "two quarters rule" that is more media hype than an actual economic measure."

Responding to a question in the comments the author had thus to say:

"In 1974, the US economist Julius Shiskin described a recession as `two consecutive quarters of declining growth'. That definition has gained traction since because it is simple enough for anyone to understand. But even Shiskin realised there is a lot more to to it than that simplified shorthand. You can only really tell after the event if there has been a recession. The US doesn't use the Shiskin rule. It uses a much more broad set of data to decide as part of its monitoring of business cycles.
The easiest way to understand the issue is to realise that announcements of GDP are estimates, estimates that get progressively revised. In New Zealand those revisions happen continuously and can span 5 to 10 quarters (obviously less invasive as time goes on).
Almost certainly the announced Q1-2023 -0.1% dip will be revised, just as the Q4-2022 drop was revised last week. (The Q4-2022 fall was revised to be smaller in the Q1-2023 release.) If the same happens in the Q2-2023 GDP data (as some think it will), the -0.1% could easily become a positive. So then it won't be two quarters of decline. This is a pretty crude way of deciding. In NZ neither Stats NZ nor the RBNZ use the two-quarters definition. We will only really know a year or so down the track whether the shifts in employment, output, consumption, exports and imports, etc. really caused our economy to shrink in real terms.
A 'real recession' won't be known for some time yet. And the data released so far is far from conclusive we are in one on a national economy basis. Some regions? yes, probably. Some industries? yes probably. But overall? I have my doubts."

And more:

" All reported GDP growth numbers are inflation-adjusted (so, 'real'). You have to deep into the data to find the nominal numbers. You really only need nominal numbers when you use GDP as the comparison base to unadjusted data (like debt).
Per capita is the better version for some things."

[winner (n)]

Good one onemootpoint

A 'myth' can be circulated for so long it becomes 'fact' and as lazy people we accept it and often miss the real story

The myth that eating plenty of carrots can make you see at night has interesting origins,

[Basil]

Any way you slice and dice this it looks like we're coming in for a nice smooth and soft landing this spring / summer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeiF5Asqy00&t=5s   Lot of fun that floatplane at Taupo. 
Cool and affordable brands like Glassons are going to do just fine.

[KW]

If the reason for the low unemployment rate is because everyone is voluntarily quitting and leaving for better jobs in Australia, is it still a recession?  Asking for a friend, one of the net 105,000 people who have left NZ in the last 3.5 months.

[BlackPeter]

If the reason for the low unemployment rate is because everyone is voluntarily quitting and leaving for better jobs in Australia, is it still a recession?  Asking for a friend, one of the net 105,000 people who have left NZ in the last 3.5 months.

Always wondering who is making up your immigration numbers?

Last official numbers I have seen show still a large (though seasonally reducing) immigration surplus over the last 12 months. Something like 70k people more in than out over the year by end of March.

Confirmation bias?

[Waltzing]

Now since we are talking retail here MHJ up over a dollar... A DOLLAR!!!

what is going on here!!!!

Its a RECESSION people!!!

for goodness sake!!!!

[KW]

Always wondering who is making up your immigration numbers?

Last official numbers I have seen show still a large (though seasonally reducing) immigration surplus over the last 12 months. Something like 70k people more in than out over the year by end of March.

Confirmation bias?

Stats NZ doesnt actually know the immigration number, they use a computer generated model to estimate it based off Customs data.  If after 16 months, people who have left the country havent returned, or people who have arrived havent left, they go back and adjust their "estimate" against the actual number (with people still here/gone after 16 months assumed to be a permanent migration). 

I simply collate the actual daily Customs data, to see where the tide is flowing.  When the borders opened last Sept there was a flood of people into the country (101,000 net) but that only lasted until February.  From March onwards, there has been a large flow of people leaving the country (105,000 net).  Thats the neat trick with the Govt using "year to date" numbers, they can just highlight what happened 9 months ago and pretend its still happening without providing any up to date data.

[KW]

Another day, another Aussie retail profit warning

Leading value apparel specialty retailer Best & Less Group Holdings Limited (BLG or the Company) (ASX:BST) today provides an update on trading for the period ending 18 June 2023. 
Since the Company's most recent trading update on 17 May 2023, trading conditions have continued to soften, with sales and foot traffic lagging the prior year. 
For the five trading weeks from 15 May to 18 June, total sales were -11.7% or $9.0 million below the prior corresponding period (PCP) and LFL sales were -13.2% below the PCP (stores: -12.5%, online: -19.6%). Through 24 trading weeks in H2 FY23, LFL sales were -4.5% below the PCP (stores: -2.0%, online: -18.6%).

[BlackPeter]

Another day, another Aussie retail profit warning

Leading value apparel specialty retailer Best & Less Group Holdings Limited (BLG or the Company) (ASX:BST) today provides an update on trading for the period ending 18 June 2023.
Since the Company's most recent trading update on 17 May 2023, trading conditions have continued to soften, with sales and foot traffic lagging the prior year.
For the five trading weeks from 15 May to 18 June, total sales were -11.7% or $9.0 million below the prior corresponding period (PCP) and LFL sales were -13.2% below the PCP (stores: -12.5%, online: -19.6%). Through 24 trading weeks in H2 FY23, LFL sales were -4.5% below the PCP (stores: -2.0%, online: -18.6%).

Interesting to see that these profit warnings typically seem to come from companies hardly anybody would buy from anyway. When was the last time you went into a Postie Plus - for me it must be more than a decade ago (and only one visit because they opened a new shop, which turned out to be as disappointing as the rest)?

But sure - people have clearly less money to throw away these days.