SKT - Sky Network Television

[Mysterion]

All these insiders buying.

They know another takeover offer is coming

[mistaTea]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67782869

WBD and Paramount want to merge.

Would make Max a bit of a powerhouse.

Streaming OTT the way forward but more consolidation needed to make it work.

Meanwhile traditional aggregators will continue to pay a premium to rent content - getting exclusive deals will be harder.

[mistaTea]

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/disneys-2024-lifeline-leads-tim-cook-2023-12-21/

Apple could soon own a piece of ESPN in a JV with Disney too.

[mistaTea]

Good article.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/shakeout-has-begun-after-78b-streaming-loss-for-netflix-rivals/5BAJB6MLDJDHTJLXSWJVTCWRLY/

Will be interesting to see if there is much impact on sky cord cutting after the recent price increase.

From next year Starter + Entertainment + Sport + the privilege to record will set you back about $111 a month.

Ouchie.

[xafalcon]

Content aggregation is a dying segment, following the same path as dvd home movie rentals. The youngsters access what they want for free or direct from source via VPN. They will never subscribe to skytv.

The older people who aren't so tech savvy and the pubs  are the only segments that are still subscribing. The former are reducing in number through being on a fixed income and unable to absorb ever increasing subs, and of course they are also expiring due to age

This only leaves the pubs as a cash cow

The woman's netball league has recent first hand experience of the dwindling subscriber revenue and increased content costs

If skytv is lucky, they will be purchased by a large international content aggregator (like Fox) with more purchasing power and potentially links to the big US distributors (WB, Netflix, Discovery etc)

If unlucky, the business will lose access to key content and enter a death spiral. NZ Rugby should be very concerned, as their revenue stream is in jeopardy

[mistaTea]

Content aggregation is a dying segment, following the same path as dvd home movie rentals. The youngsters access what they want for free or direct from source via VPN. They will never subscribe to skytv.

The older people who aren't so tech savvy and the pubs  are the only segments that are still subscribing. The former are reducing in number through being on a fixed income and unable to absorb ever increasing subs, and of course they are also expiring due to age

This only leaves the pubs as a cash cow

The woman's netball league has recent first hand experience of the dwindling subscriber revenue and increased content costs

If skytv is lucky, they will be purchased by a large international content aggregator (like Fox) with more purchasing power and potentially links to the big US distributors (WB, Netflix, Discovery etc)

If unlucky, the business will lose access to key content and enter a death spiral. NZ Rugby should be very concerned, as their revenue stream is in jeopardy

Be very interesting to see what part NZR+ (their streaming platform) plays in the next round of negotiations with sky.

[xafalcon]

NZR have put themselves into an impossible position. They are wedded to Skytv through the ridiculously high broadcast rights fee which NZR has baked into player payments. But the ever declining subscriber numbers are reducing the cash that Skytv has to offer in broadcast negotiations (refer recent womans domestic netball bombshell news). And the reducing subscriber base is severely affecting Super Rugby game attendance, eroding another revenue stream for NZR

Skytv has the world's most marketable rugby players in their broadcast portfolio, through OSB. Giving Skytv an additional revenue stream selling into other rugby markets (SA, Japan, England, France, Australia). But this will only ever work on a small scale, only while the ABs continue to excel, and only if the game becomes more fun to watch ie. faster, get rid of TMO, eliminate scrum resets, and most importantly, simplify the game by reducing the ridiculous number of ever changing "rules" that spectators need to understand

Globally, rugby is a second or third tier sport, only watched in a handful of countries. It will never become a major world sport, and hence will never generate huge revenues. NZ is also a tiny market. So there is little attraction for a large content aggregator to purchase Skytv for any meaningful stack of cash

A classic viscous feedback circle.....

[LoungeLizard]

If only they had diversified into their own streaming service and broadband and had enough cash to outbid and outlast any other local company - say, Spark - for the big sports and sporting events. Man, if they had done that they would probably be clearing $50m a year in net profit....

[mistaTea]

NZR have put themselves into an impossible position. They are wedded to Skytv through the ridiculously high broadcast rights fee which NZR has baked into player payments. But the ever declining subscriber numbers are reducing the cash that Skytv has to offer in broadcast negotiations (refer recent womans domestic netball bombshell news). And the reducing subscriber base is severely affecting Super Rugby game attendance, eroding another revenue stream for NZR

Skytv has the world's most marketable rugby players in their broadcast portfolio, through OSB. Giving Skytv an additional revenue stream selling into other rugby markets (SA, Japan, England, France, Australia). But this will only ever work on a small scale, only while the ABs continue to excel, and only if the game becomes more fun to watch ie. faster, get rid of TMO, eliminate scrum resets, and most importantly, simplify the game by reducing the ridiculous number of ever changing "rules" that spectators need to understand

Globally, rugby is a second or third tier sport, only watched in a handful of countries. It will never become a major world sport, and hence will never generate huge revenues. NZ is also a tiny market. So there is little attraction for a large content aggregator to purchase Skytv for any meaningful stack of cash

A classic viscous feedback circle.....

Sky sold OSB a few years back.

[xafalcon]

So they have already started hocking off the family silverware. It's worse than I knew, for both Skytv and NZR

I thought something was amiss when I received multiple emails, pressing me to renew my expired Skysportnow subscription for $299 when the published price was publicly raised to $450. The cost of living "crisis" must be really hurting subscriber income

[mistaTea]

So they have already started hocking off the family silverware. It's worse than I knew, for both Skytv and NZR

I thought something was amiss when I received multiple emails, pressing me to renew my expired Skysportnow subscription for $299 when the published price was publicly raised to $450. The cost of living "crisis" must be really hurting subscriber income

Yes but they have managed to get swanky new digs in the CBD so Sophie and the other Chiefs don't have to slum it in Mt Wellington anymore with the rank and file.

Just unreal. 

[Mysterion]

2021:

Discovery "clearly recognises the important role that Newshub and Three in general plays in providing independent and trusted news and current affairs programming and that is the asset we have bought into" https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300101113/discovery-takes-bet-on-nz-by-buying-television-channel-three

2024:

Newshub closing down

[Left Field]

Results out

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/436522/attachment/425134/436522-425134.pdf


- Revenue of $766.7m, up 1.6% on FY23
- EBITDA of $153m, up 2.9% year on year
- NPAT of $49.2m, down 3.7% due to increased depreciation
- Customer relationships of 938,760
- Free cash flow of $23.7m, up 43.2% year on year
- Dividend of 19 cents per share (fully imputed), up 26.7%

[Average_Punter]

Just received an email advising that my 12 month Sports Now subscription is going up to $499. Last year I paid $349.
 
I'm not renewing!

[Shareguy]

I have been watching this stock for a while. Have done well in the past with Sky but the possible loss of the rugby and declining revenue from the Sky box had stoped me going back in.

Was at a gathering this week and spoke to someone who works for Sky who said the "talk around the water cooler" is that the All Blacks coverage will be renewed and announced shortly and also the cricket that is currently with TVNZ will go to Sky. If these things do happen I expect the share price to appreciate quickly. The Rugby rights costs are rumoured to be 20 percent less in nominal terms.  Sky's partnership with Discovery was renewed a few months ago also.

It's currently the highest dividend return on the NZX according to FB. They say "our forecasts, SKT will generate its current market cap in free cash flow to shareholders over the next six years, the lion's share of which we expect will be returned to shareholders"

FB current DPS forecast is 22.5 cps for 2025 going to 30 cps FY26 on wards. So at $2.58 is 12.1 percent GY for 2025 going to 16.1 FY26. That's a PE of 6.4 FY26.

Also FB say Sky one of top 5 M&A candidates. Craig's say we note the recently proposed acquisition of the US' second largest satellite TV company, DISH, for 3.2x EV/ 12m fwd EBITDA. Sky at $2.76 from Craigs note is at 2.3 times.

Good level's of insider buying is also attractive.

Disc/ Im back in.