Politics

[Hectorplains]

Taxpayers Union/Curia poll today

National increases 0.9 points on last month to 35.9% while Labour are also up, gaining 1.4 points to take them to 27.9%. ACT have dropped by 5.2 points to 9.1% while the Greens are down 2.1 points to 10.6%.

The smaller parties are NZ First on 6.9% (+3 points), the Māori Party on 3.7% (+0.8 points), TOP on 2.9% (+0.2 points), New Conservatives on 0.7% (-0.1 points), Vision NZ on 0.3% (-0.2 points), and DemocracyNZ on 0.3% (+0.3 points).

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:


National are up one seat on last month to 46 while Labour remain on 35. ACT have dropped 7 seats to 12 while the Greens have dropped 4 to 13. NZ First will hold the balance of power , gaining 9 seats from last month for a total of 9 while the Māori Party are up one to 5 seats.

[Minimoke]

Obviously - I don't know your personal circumstances - did you do run your data through the calculator?

https://taxswitch.nz/

Remember as well, that you need to enter only the value of your unimproved land (e.g. the price for the section without building) - not the capital value of your property.

For most people in town the landtax will be quite neutral, and for anybody on a rural property it will be NIL.

But more importantly - are you sure that personal tax minimisation is the best strategy for voting? I guess in this case, why don't you move into a country without services but as well without taxes (like Somalia)?

Sure - ACT probably will reduce your personal tax burden, but their austerity policies are as well likely to crush our economy (just look at what the tories did to the British economy).

And National - who knows? Their taxcuts are unfunded (i.e. they still need to cut services to pay for them), and apparantly most people won't get them anyway. I am however sure, everybody will be allowed to pay for them.

From a personal perspective - I don't mind paying taxes, as long as I am confident, that the money will be good invested and used in the interest of the tax payers - and yes, the current government had a tendency to waste our taxdollars, didn't they?

Raf Manji does have experience in managing tax- (or rate-) payers money ... and if you compare e.g. Christchurchs finances (which he could influence for a number of years) to e.g. Aucklands (controlled by a hard right mayor), than I would know with whom I would want to go ...

I hadnt seen that calculator.
But when I run the numbers through it I will pay $4430 more tax. Given I feel I have a personal responsibility to pay only the tax I am legally required to pay its still a "no" from me.
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[Hectorplains]

What odds on a hung parliament?  ACT has got a wee bit of the wobbles - down to 8.8% on the latest poll.  They do themselves no favours when the push the nice but dim, Karen Chhour into the media.

Even the Nats, are now saying it aloud. 

[KW]

Even the Nats, are now saying it aloud. 

Winston will do a deal.  Whatever it takes.  Thats pretty much the only thing you can be sure of.  All of this noise is just political posturing pre-election in order to lock down votes.  After the election, it will simply be a bit of horsetrading in a back room. They all want to be in Govt, so they will make it work. 

[BlackPeter]

Winston will do a deal.  Whatever it takes.  Thats pretty much the only thing you can be sure of.  All of this noise is just political posturing pre-election in order to lock down votes.  After the election, it will simply be a bit of horsetrading in a back room. They all want to be in Govt, so they will make it work.

Sure - but lets face it, while Winston is a good opposition politician, what ever did he achieve in government apart from making himself redundant after splashing plenty of tax payer money under his clientele? Even the dumbest voters are fed up of him after only one term in government, that's when they give him the boot - they always did. Do we need to watch that movie again? Really?

[KW]

Sure - but lets face it, while Winston is a good opposition politician, what ever did he achieve in government apart from making himself redundant after splashing plenty of tax payer money under his clientele? Even the dumbest voters are fed up of him after only one term in government, that's when they give him the boot - they always did. Do we need to watch that movie again? Really?

You could look at it more in terms of not what he did, but what he prevented from being done.  No one can argue that the first Labour Govt with Winston wasnt better than the Second Labour Govt without Winston.  So the way I look at it is, Winston was the adult in the room with Labour.  Things really fell apart when he left.  Arguably National/ACT don't need a babysitter, so he may be redundant.  In which case, give him a nice Cabinet position like Foreign Affairs and let him enjoy the next 3 years before he retires.  He might like being able to travel for a change - last time he was Foreign Affairs Minister he stayed home while Jacinda travelled the world on her self promotion tours. 

[Untamed]

Are you sure about that? I am no fan of Winston, but the prospect of a NAT/ACT only government, is downright scary.

You could look at it more in terms of not what he did, but what he prevented from being done.  No one can argue that the first Labour Govt with Winston wasnt better than the Second Labour Govt without Winston.  So the way I look at it is, Winston was the adult in the room with Labour.  Things really fell apart when he left.  Arguably National/ACT don't need a babysitter, so he may be redundant.  In which case, give him a nice Cabinet position like Foreign Affairs and let him enjoy the next 3 years before he retires.  He might like being able to travel for a change - last time he was Foreign Affairs Minister he stayed home while Jacinda travelled the world on her self promotion tours.

[Onemootpoint]

Not expressing an opinion, but found this interesting though:

Bryce Edwards: Ten reasons Labour's support has halved

https://democracyproject.nz/2023/10/03/bryce-edwards-ten-reasons-labours-support-has-halved/

[BlackPeter]

You could look at it more in terms of not what he did, but what he prevented from being done.  No one can argue that the first Labour Govt with Winston wasnt better than the Second Labour Govt without Winston.  So the way I look at it is, Winston was the adult in the room with Labour.  Things really fell apart when he left.  Arguably National/ACT don't need a babysitter, so he may be redundant.  In which case, give him a nice Cabinet position like Foreign Affairs and let him enjoy the next 3 years before he retires.  He might like being able to travel for a change - last time he was Foreign Affairs Minister he stayed home while Jacinda travelled the world on her self promotion tours.

Well, its like giving an arsonist credit for afterwards at least trying to keep the fire he started under control, isn't it? There is nobody else but Winston to blame that Labour came in 2017 into power - praising him afterwards for acting as handbrake in this coalition after he initiated it is pretty ridiculous, isn't it?

Lets face it - Winston is only in for collecting the prettiest baubles for himself, he never did anything material for the people while he was in government (yes, he had a positive role in the wine box saga, but at that stage he was in opposition). Winston will say anything to get into power - no matter, whether it is race baiting or supporting absolutley braindead conspiracy theories.

Chris Luxon lost in my view the last of any political credibility when he (without need) elevated Winston as a potential coalition partner - and he probably gave him that way the push over the 5%. We will see.

[Minimoke]

Well, its like giving an arsonist credit for afterwards at least trying to keep the fire he started under control, isn't it? There is nobody else but Winston to blame that Labour came in 2017 into power - praising him afterwards for acting as handbrake in this coalition after he initiated it is pretty ridiculous, isn't it?

Lets face it - Winston is only in for collecting the prettiest baubles for himself, he never did anything material for the people while he was in government (yes, he had a positive role in the wine box saga, but at that stage he was in opposition). Winston will say anything to get into power - no matter, whether it is race baiting or supporting absolutley braindead conspiracy theories.

Chris Luxon lost in my view the last of any political credibility when he (without need) elevated Winston as a potential coalition partner - and he probably gave him that way the push over the 5%. We will see.

Luxon has a history of being a non-committal, centrist, inoffensive fence sitter. The only reason Winston is getting traction again is because Luxon failed to discount him right from the beginning. That Peters is now polling over 5% is 100% on Luxon shoulders.

[Waltzing]

WILIE JACKSON  says you all want it... go on admit you want it... and that patchy piece of parchment that was scribbled in the Bombay Office of the British East India company real estate department by  a company sales clerk  has everything in it you need to get what ever YOU WANT!!!!

and the UN will back you ... and it you cant than Ugly Bear will sell you some Tanks and you can take it all back...

since NZ doesnt have any IWI can buy T34's ... there are probably some in towns outside town halls...

[Waltzing]

LUXON is a wolf in sheep gear...

there is a big cutting machine coming bigger than an under ground tunnel machine that will CUT wellington to ribbons....

it how CEO's work when they need to balance the books and give the shareholders a Special DIV...

CUT CUT CUT CUT ....

[Onemootpoint]

"CUT CUT CUT CUT"

Wasn't that what happened last time too circa 2008.

[Waltzing]

oh 2008,,,, gosh that was a wonderful summer... bursting of a bubble...

wonder what labour was thinking and who was behind the flood...is there pressure on inflation from this lot...

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124711/latest-monthly-net-migration-gain-285-compared-pre-covid-levels-statistics-nz-says

[Onemootpoint]

So, final leaders debate over and done with. Nothing too spectacular although it was running in the background so I may have missed something. At least they want to ban Greyhound racing.
Latest polls, of anything to go by, indicates whichever major party wins may have to tag along at least 2 more parties. Such fun.
Two million more have as yet to vote.