Politics

[Minimoke]

So - what was then the need to make these comments? And yes, he explicitely did exclude TOP, which in the view of many Liberals makes National unelectable under Luxon, considering that National used earlier to cut off their very own liberal wing.

TOP is as liberal as it can get ... and the only things Luxon signalled by excluding them is either that he has no clue how politics works (which might be true) and that he has the habit of damaging his own cause before he goes into negotiations, which he did.

Make no mistake - he damaged his negotiation position and reduced his voting base without getting anything in return. Plain dumb.

Just imagine after the elections a situation where he could have negotiated a coalition with either TOP or NZF, reducing that way the political price he has to pay, no matter who would have won? Luxon dashed this opportunity for National without any need - and Peters can now clearly go and extract maximum price for his support. Peters will go all the way lauging to the elections, knowing that Luxon removed himself any alternative he could have. Peters will already dream about all these huge baubles Luxon gifted to him with his incompetence.

What I am saying is - if Luxon is acting already that dumb in a very simple situation (rule #1 of any negotiation - don't limit your choices without gaining anything) ... how much damage will this greenhorn do to the country if he ends up as PM?

Looks like NZ is screwed, no matter how the election goes.

I wasn't aware Luxon had excluded TOP. At best TOP is only up for a couple of seats. But I think, given the absence of an ACT candidate in Ilam "right" voters will get in behind National. Which will see TOP staying as a minnow outside parliament.

I can't comment on TOP policies as I havent seen them. But I recall Manji was in favour of the Living Wage for council workers and contractors - so on that basis its a "no" from me so can't be bothered in investing the time to learn more about their polices.

Luxon may be smarter than we give credit for. He may be seen as leaving the door open to NZ First. But NZ First may implode and not get 5% so nothing lost. Its still a National /ACT coalition

As far as I am concerned NZ is doomed if we have another Labour / Green / Maori party coalition. I know it is an extraordinarily low bar, but any government that isn't that one will be better. So I am a bit more optimistic.

[Ferg]

Oh dear......poor old James Shaw has been caught in a lie about his (not) qualifications.  Here is all the evidence anyone needs of a complicit media - imagine if this was done by any other politician even slightly to the right of Chairman Mao.  Crickets.

Shaw lied about his BA.  So how did he get the job at PWC?  And how did he get his Masters from Bath if he didn't have his Bachelors degree from Vic?  Come on MSM.....where are you?

Sources:
https://www.thedailyexaminer.co.nz/shaws-political-career-is-unlikely-to-survive-this-scandal/
https://peterallanwilliams.substack.com/p/james-shaw-not-ba
https://dailytelegraph.co.nz/news/ian-wishart-requests-privacy-waiver-to-investigate-james-shaws-masters-degree/
https://thebfd.co.nz/2023/09/15/james-shaw-the-greens-and-his-msc/
https://ianwishart.com/2023/09/james-shaws-ex-boss-justifiable-public-interest-to-probe-your-msc-degree/

[Minimoke]

Oh dear......poor old James Shaw has been caught in a lie about his (not) qualifications.  Here is all the evidence anyone needs of a complicit media - imagine if this was done by any other politician even slightly to the right of Chairman Mao.  Crickets.

Shaw lied about his BA.  So how did he get the job at PWC?  And how did he get his Masters from Bath if he didn't have his Bachelors degree from Vic?  Come on MSM.....where are you?

Sources:
https://www.thedailyexaminer.co.nz/shaws-political-career-is-unlikely-to-survive-this-scandal/
https://peterallanwilliams.substack.com/p/james-shaw-not-ba
https://dailytelegraph.co.nz/news/ian-wishart-requests-privacy-waiver-to-investigate-james-shaws-masters-degree/
https://thebfd.co.nz/2023/09/15/james-shaw-the-greens-and-his-msc/
https://ianwishart.com/2023/09/james-shaws-ex-boss-justifiable-public-interest-to-probe-your-msc-degree/

MSM is a bit stuck as James won't give permission to release his personal informaiton to the Bath University. Doesn't mean to say MSM could have done a better job reporting this issue. Their failure to cover it is pretty sad.

What is worse though is that there has been pretty much zero coverage from MSM that the IPCC has down graded its 100 year Climate Change Models. They now (in 2023) say global temperature increases arent going to be as bad as previously modeled. Which essentially ends the fallacy that is the "climate crisis"

And something Shaw has remained silent on. You'd have to wonder why. Just another blot on his integrity and honesty.

[Basil]

Very good article on Labour's fall from grace.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/political-roundup-ten-reasons-labours-support-has-halved/3I3F36OCRFFB3PPCIKZL2TH6VI/

[Ferg]

Doesn't mean to say MSM could have done a better job reporting this issue. Their failure to cover it is pretty sad.

For sure.  It's not as if they don't have the time given they can dredge up tweets from candidates they don't approve of from some years ago, and/or immature behaviours in schools many blue moons ago.  My message to the MSM: "now do the Greens".  I won't hold my breath.

Just another blot on his integrity and honesty.

Another blot?  That assumes he ever had integrity and/or honesty....

[Ferg]

Very good article on Labour's fall from grace.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/political-roundup-ten-reasons-labours-support-has-halved/3I3F36OCRFFB3PPCIKZL2TH6VI/

That article is on the money.  If they are spending an extra $46b p.a. I want to know where are the new hospitals, the new motorways, the extra ferry services, the new GP clinics, the new schools, the expanded transport infrastructure such as trains which are climate friendly, new harbour crossings, 1 billion trees, 100k new homes, the new prisons, all children lifted out of poverty, indexed tax brackets ......zip, nada, zilch.  They squandered it.

Worst. Government. Ever.

Even worse than Muldoon - at least we got some infrastructure from him that means we can avoid rolling blackouts.

[Hectorplains]

I wasn't aware Luxon had excluded TOP. At best TOP is only up for a couple of seats. But I think, given the absence of an ACT candidate in Ilam "right" voters will get in behind National. Which will see TOP staying as a minnow outside parliament.

I can't comment on TOP policies as I havent seen them. But I recall Manji was in favour of the Living Wage for council workers and contractors - so on that basis its a "no" from me so can't be bothered in investing the time to learn more about their polices.

Luxon may be smarter than we give credit for. He may be seen as leaving the door open to NZ First. But NZ First may implode and not get 5% so nothing lost. Its still a National /ACT coalition

As far as I am concerned NZ is doomed if we have another Labour / Green / Maori party coalition. I know it is an extraordinarily low bar, but any government that isn't that one will be better. So I am a bit more optimistic.

Manji makes a fair point about National's  "lack of strategic thinking, not just about this election, but future elections". If they don't want a coalition with Peters, then it's actually in their control to do something about that, as they have previously with both ACT and United Future. 

TOP are bit more than living wage advocates.  Most of their policy balances a Liberal social and economic viewpoint.

[Hectorplains]

Latest poll puts Nats and ACT needing NZF. 

The 1News Verian poll has National and Labour steady on 36 per cent and 26 per cent respectively. The Greens were  on 13 per cent and Act was down 2 points to 10 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori was steady on 2 per cent and The Opportunities Party is up 1 point to 2 per cent.

National and Act would have 46 and 13 seats respectively, but at a total of 59 that is not enough to form a majority (61). This means they would need NZ First's 8 projected seats...or for TOP to take Ilam and bring in another candidate on the back of that seat.

[Minimoke]

Latest poll puts Nats and ACT needing NZF. 

The 1News Verian poll has National and Labour steady on 36 per cent and 26 per cent respectively. The Greens were  on 13 per cent and Act was down 2 points to 10 per cent.

Te Pāti Māori was steady on 2 per cent and The Opportunities Party is up 1 point to 2 per cent.

National and Act would have 46 and 13 seats respectively, but at a total of 59 that is not enough to form a majority (61). This means they would need NZ First's 8 projected seats...or for TOP to take Ilam and bring in another candidate on the back of that seat.

If TOP takes Ilam (which they wont) with the new 2% in the polls this would take National / ACT / TOP to 61 seats.

However if TOP reverts to form, wins a seat and only gets 1% of the vote then it comes to 60 seats. Even 1.5% still returns 60 seats

[BlackPeter]

If TOP takes Ilam (which they wont) with the new 2% in the polls this would take National / ACT / TOP to 61 seats.

However if TOP reverts to form, wins a seat and only gets 1% of the vote then it comes to 60 seats. Even 1.5% still returns 60 seats

Well, they are already at 2% (which would give them at least 2 seats), so what do you worry ? Just support them and we will be fine.

[Minimoke]

Well, they are already at 2% (which would give them at least 2 seats), so what do you worry ? Just support them and we will be fine.

He wants to give me some PAYE tax back. And then take more times that in his Land Tax. No thank you!

[Shareguy]

I can't believe that once again we have the potential of Winston First calling the shots. Having to possibly wait weeks for his decision. I don't believe for one minute that chippy or someone in labour won't ring Winston Peters to try and do a deal.

On saying that I believe it was Winston that stoped the capital gains tax when he was part of the current lot.

[Hectorplains]

I can't believe that once again we have the potential of Winston First calling the shots. Having to possibly wait weeks for his decision. I don't believe for one minute that chippy or someone in labour won't ring Winston Peters to try and do a deal.

On saying that I believe it was Winston that stoped the capital gains tax when he was part of the current lo.

Yeah, the thought of it makes my pancreas spasm.  I just don't get where National are at?  It's bad politics!   Their list is released on the 14th, so they have time to bump Hamish Campbell up and get him into parliament. Then it's a nod, a wink and a cup of tea with Manji in Ilam - the same deal they've done previously with United Future and ACT.  TOP may have a loopy tinge to it but so did United,and ACT have their gun nuts.  Manji is imminently more user friendly than Winston.  It also creates another centrist partner going forward, and it's one with significantly different focal points so as not to cannibalise their vote. 

Surely there is more to gain than to lose for the Nats. I can't help think that  more a pragmatic leader, like Key, would jump at it.

[Hectorplains]

He wants to give me some PAYE tax back. And then take more times that in his Land Tax. No thank you!

As a minor coalition partner their tax plans would be off the table.  TOP would be more likely to score wins in areas like anti-vaping legislation and youth healthcare costs.

[BlackPeter]

He wants to give me some PAYE tax back. And then take more times that in his Land Tax. No thank you!

Obviously - I don't know your personal circumstances - did you do run your data through the calculator?

https://taxswitch.nz/

Remember as well, that you need to enter only the value of your unimproved land (e.g. the price for the section without building) - not the capital value of your property.

For most people in town the landtax will be quite neutral, and for anybody on a rural property it will be NIL.

But more importantly - are you sure that personal tax minimisation is the best strategy for voting? I guess in this case, why don't you move into a country without services but as well without taxes (like Somalia)?

Sure - ACT probably will reduce your personal tax burden, but their austerity policies are as well likely to crush our economy (just look at what the tories did to the British economy).

And National - who knows? Their taxcuts are unfunded (i.e. they still need to cut services to pay for them), and apparantly most people won't get them anyway. I am however sure, everybody will be allowed to pay for them.

From a personal perspective - I don't mind paying taxes, as long as I am confident, that the money will be good invested and used in the interest of the tax payers - and yes, the current government had a tendency to waste our taxdollars, didn't they?

Raf Manji does have experience in managing tax- (or rate-) payers money ... and if you compare e.g. Christchurchs finances (which he could influence for a number of years) to e.g. Aucklands (controlled by a hard right mayor), than I would know with whom I would want to go ...