Politics

[Henry Filth]

I think that there are a few people who see a non-Labour government as inevitable, and so will vote for NZ First in the hope that Mister Peterswill apply the handbrake from time to time.

Still others are maliciously looking forward to the spectacle of Luxon, Peters, and Seymour each dancing to the beat of their own drummer.

[Hectorplains]

I think that there are a few people who see a non-Labour government as inevitable, and so will vote for NZ First in the hope that Mister Peterswill apply the handbrake from time to time.

Still others are maliciously looking forward to the spectacle of Luxon, Peters, and Seymour each dancing to the beat of their own drummer.

The issue is that National is just not garnering enough support. If they did NZF wouldn't be even an issue. 

The strategy to present Luxon as the new Key is dumb.  National's campaign to present Luxon's common touch is not working.  He comes across as sketchy as he's clearly trying to be what he's not.  He doesn't need to be liked, but he does need to be trusted.  He's not going to win on personality.   

The so called cost of living crisis should offer all he needs to shine.  National needs to claim the middle.  This tough on crime and mega prisons twaddle is distracting and it's ACT's territory, leave it to them.

Worse still Luxon is woefully underprepared.  That question about Peters was always coming in the last debate.  To repeatedly answer, "I don't know him" was a disaster.  Where have you been the last forty years, Chris?  Have you not followed any politics in that time!  It makes him look both meek and disingenuous. 

It feels like an election that Labour is losing, rather than one National is winning.

   

[Henry Filth]

I think that governments have what you might think of as a natural lifespan.

I think that since the second world war New Zealand has gravitated to a three-term government by National or National-led governments, whereas Labour has managed one-term (1957 & 1973), two-term (1987), and three-term (1999) governments.

I think Labour are set to continue this in 2023.

As for Labour losing as opposed to National winning, when did you ever hear anyone say "Vote the b*st*rds in?

[Hectorplains]

As for Labour losing as opposed to National winning, when did you ever hear anyone say "Vote the b*st*rds in?

Haha that's true.  I suspect that's why there's never been much public support for a four year term.

I agree too that National will sleepwalk to a victory of some sort or other... the 'other' being with Winston.  A Pyrrhic victory?

I'm disappointed in National's 100 day plan released today. Under "Rebuild the economy and reduce the cost of living" is a mess of policy that doesn't really do either of those things, certainly nothing directly about the cost of living.  The messaging is off. They're their own worst enemy in giving Peters the space to work his...(cough) magic.

[Untamed]

As for Labour losing as opposed to National winning, when did you ever hear anyone say "Vote the b*st*rds in?

This is precisely why we are stuck in this never-ending cycle of rinse and repeat politics.

I detest the fact that the current election mantra is "vote for anyone - as long as we get Labour out!" That is not how it should be, and it makes a mockery of the whole process. We just keep doing it election after election and are prepared to "settle" for the best of a really bad bunch.

We should be voting for the party we want to govern - not merely voting against the party we want to lose.

[Hectorplains]

It looks like Covid has cast its vote 

[Basil]

What a shame we can't listen to more of his riveting rhetoric for a while 

[Minimoke]

What a shame we can't listen to more of his riveting rhetoric for a while 

i was wondering what new lies he was going to come up with. Guess I'll have to wait a week.

[Shareguy]

Great debate with Winston Peters and red Jack this morning on Q&A.

[Basil]

Two very smug and smarmy characters go head to head, what could possibly go wrong lol

[Onemootpoint]

The issue is that National is just not garnering enough support. If they did NZF wouldn't be even an issue. 

I vaguely recall someone saying in 2002 when National did so poorly under Bill English with PM HC in office that due to the changing face of NZ demographics, National will never again achieve a clear majority with Labour benefitting.

Can't remember who said it; too long ago.

[Hectorplains]

I vaguely recall someone saying in 2002 when National did so poorly under Bill English with PM HC in office that due to the changing face of NZ demographics, National will never again achieve a clear majority with Labour benefitting.

Can't remember who said it; too long ago.

Majority government by any one party is rare under proportional representation anyway.  It's really about try to limit the number of coalition partners you need and most importantly how much power they have by virtue of how much vote they achieved.  National is making a poor fist of this. Sure New Zealand's changing demographic may count against you but you have to control what is in your means to do so.  Most of where they're going wrong in that is Communications 101 stuff. 

[BlackPeter]

Majority government by any one party is rare under proportional representation anyway.  It's really about try to limit the number of coalition partners you need and most importantly how much power they have by virtue of how much vote they achieved.  National is making a poor fist of this. Sure New Zealand's changing demographic may count against you but you have to control what is in your means to do so.  Most of where they're going wrong in that is Communications 101 stuff. 

True ...

one of their last cock ups was Luxon boosting over the weekend in response to a reporters question that he won't work together with any other small party, after approving populist NZ First as potential coalition partner (and obviously ACT as their de facto right-wing appendix).

No matter, what he really wants to do after the election, anybody with a gram of operating matter between the ears would have hold his options open instead of limiting his options already prior to any coalition negotiations.

I am really wondering whether Luxon is fit for the job as PM, if he can't even get the absolute basics right.

[Minimoke]

True ...

one of their last cock ups was Luxon boosting over the weekend in response to a reporters question that he won't work together with any other small party, after approving populist NZ First as potential coalition partner (and obviously ACT as their de facto right-wing appendix).

No matter, what he really wants to do after the election, anybody with a gram of operating matter between the ears would have hold his options open instead of limiting his options already prior to any coalition negotiations.

I am really wondering whether Luxon is fit for the job as PM, if he can't even get the absolute basics right.

Luxton has already ruled out Greens and Maori party. They are too far removed from fundamental principles. And it goes without saying he wouldn't enter into discussions with Labour.

Given it is highly unlikely any other party will enter parliament (TOP maybe an exception if Raph Manji wins Ilam) Then Luxons comments over the weekend seem spot on.

[BlackPeter]

Luxton has already ruled out Greens and Maori party. They are too far removed from fundamental principles. And it goes without saying he wouldn't enter into discussions with Labour.

Given it is highly unlikely any other party will enter parliament (TOP maybe an exception if Raph Manji wins Ilam) Then Luxons comments over the weekend seem spot on.

So - what was then the need to make these comments? And yes, he explicitely did exclude TOP, which in the view of many Liberals makes National unelectable under Luxon, considering that National used earlier to cut off their very own liberal wing.

TOP is as liberal as it can get ... and the only things Luxon signalled by excluding them is either that he has no clue how politics works (which might be true) and that he has the habit of damaging his own cause before he goes into negotiations, which he did.

Make no mistake - he damaged his negotiation position and reduced his voting base without getting anything in return. Plain dumb.

Just imagine after the elections a situation where he could have negotiated a coalition with either TOP or NZF, reducing that way the political price he has to pay, no matter who would have won? Luxon dashed this opportunity for National without any need - and Peters can now clearly go and extract maximum price for his support. Peters will go all the way lauging to the elections, knowing that Luxon removed himself any alternative he could have. Peters will already dream about all these huge baubles Luxon gifted to him with his incompetence.

What I am saying is - if Luxon is acting already that dumb in a very simple situation (rule #1 of any negotiation - don't limit your choices without gaining anything) ... how much damage will this greenhorn do to the country if he ends up as PM?

Looks like NZ is screwed, no matter how the election goes.