HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

winner (n) · Sep 30, 2023, 10:05 AM

Hey seeweed ...... the price went by more than the divie ....the market must like the outlook .....good eh

Basil · Sep 30, 2023, 04:25 PM

Very low volume though. I think Muse's thoughts about the increasing cost of doing business warrant careful reflection.

Waltzing · Sep 30, 2023, 08:50 PM

Got to like Winners() pastels....

seaweed · Oct 01, 2023, 08:10 AM

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 30, 2023, 10:05 AMHey seeweed ...... the price went by more than the divie ....the market must like the outlook .....good eh

Yes it is good, but what Basil and Muse are saying is correct. Adding to that, someone bought about 7,000 shares on close and pushed the sp up which is low volume in most companies, but for HLG it is different, there isn't enough shares to go around and sp is always pushed around on what we call low volume. The way I see it with 24c div coming in about 8 weeks and another possible big div 16 weeks after that and the busy Christmas period on our doorsteps it is looking pretty positive to me. My bank is only paying me about 5.2% and am tempted to top up more HLG for the 8% yld. plus sp gain. I have a term deposit maturing this month looking for that 8% yld. A good company and thank you HLG from all shareholders. What do you think winner, $7 just around the corner once we bowl over the the $6 hurdle

Waltzing · Oct 01, 2023, 10:29 AM

there is no LQ... you cant dump into that and make ... it wont work un less you drip feed and they will hold your orders back if it looks like you will sink the SP..

a single buyer could push the SP to 7 anytime you like..

but then your stuck there...

there is no LQ..

Basil · Oct 01, 2023, 10:40 AM

If they can do $25m in FY24 that's 42 cps (forward PE 14.3) and say they pay 38 cps in dividends with 75% imputation credits that's (0.38/0.79) / $6 = 8.01% gross. Those metrics are satisfactory for what is probably trough year earnings, but I struggle to see what drives the shares any higher at this point and one would be wise to consider the possibility of it reverting to previous support at about $5.40, a ~ 10% capital loss from here. As Waltzing says, liquidity is very poor. I think most of the fun with this one was had prior to and during the index inclusion process. Those looking for short term gains are probably better "Turning", (you see what I did there

), their attention to the next index inclusion event. 10% gross yield with TRA, (assuming 25 cps divvies), and forward PE just under 10 are more compelling metrics in my opinion + the wild card of what extra (temporary or permanent?), boost from probable index inclusion?
Time to change which horse you back? you be the judge.

seaweed · Oct 04, 2023, 07:17 AM

Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2023, 10:40 AMIf they can do $25m in FY24 that's 42 cps (forward PE 14.3) and say they pay 38 cps in dividends with 75% imputation credits that's (0.38/0.79) / $6 = 8.01% gross. Those metrics are satisfactory for what is probably trough year earnings, but I struggle to see what drives the shares any higher at this point and one would be wise to consider the possibility of it reverting to previous support at about $5.40, a ~ 10% capital loss from here. As Waltzing says, liquidity is very poor. I think most of the fun with this one was had prior to and during the index inclusion process. Those looking for short term gains are probably better "Turning", (you see what I did there ), their attention to the next index inclusion event. 10% gross yield with TRA, (assuming 25 cps divvies), and forward PE just under 10 are more compelling metrics in my opinion + the wild card of what extra (temporary or permanent?), boost from probable index inclusion?
Time to change which horse you back? you be the judge.

Thanks for all your input Basil, you put in a lot of time and effort and I appreciate that and will also be buying more if sp gets down to $5.40 to $5.80 and looking forward to 24c div in December and another div in April making it 48c for the year. And good luck to all us HLG holders.

winner (n) · Oct 13, 2023, 03:02 PM

Stats Nz card sales data for September month showed apparel sales down 5.4% on last year

But we knew thatbasvtheybsaid a slow start to the year

All those long term arrivals must have bought all their clothes with them

Waltzing · Oct 14, 2023, 09:47 PM

NZD should be up next week as ANATLAND heads in a new direction...

somewhere over the rainbow....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1bFr2SWP1I

summer sales coming soon for beachwear? go on a new day coming up and the sun will shine all summer long ...

Onemootpoint · Oct 20, 2023, 03:14 AM

For sake of interest.

I posted this over in the 'Retail Stocks' thread but perhaps relevant here too given the sales of HLG appear to be better than other clothing retailers AFAIK.

WHERE THE RETAIL CUTBACKS ARE:
ANZ reported its card tracking shows small gains in consumer spending in September. Tourism is a bright spot. But for consumers spending on clothing is lower than a year ago despite inflation rising +4.4% for that category. Spending on business goods and services is the other area keeping the overall levels up, especially "utilities and repairs".

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124845/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-thursday-tough-fhbs-they-borrow-anyway

Basil · Oct 20, 2023, 10:19 AM

Currency down in the 58 cent zone must be hurting a bit too.

winner (n) · Oct 30, 2023, 03:15 PM

From Aussie retail sales data

Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 0.3% ($8.8m) in September, in seasonally adjusted terms.

Better than going backwards so no worries for Glassons AU

seaweed · Nov 01, 2023, 03:44 PM

Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 30, 2023, 03:15 PMFrom Aussie retail sales data

Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 0.3% ($8.8m) in September, in seasonally adjusted terms.

Better than going backwards so no worries for Glassons AU

Yes better than backwards. Yld=8.28% @ $5.80, PE=10.82, EPS=53.61, and a 48c div. So anyone out there want to sell there HLG for under 5.80 then I am waiting it might be under 5.90 next week

Basil · Nov 01, 2023, 11:53 PM

All good numbers on the face of it Seeweed. The problem is those are last years numbers and the market is a forward looking beast and is concerned with this years numbers.

If they only make $25m after tax this year that's 42 cps and the forward PE is 13.80.
I think its now clear last year was boosted by an extraordinary first half that's not likely to repeat this half. In addition, with the currency around 58 cents U.S. there are now strong headwinds from that sort of exchange rate.

I think the shares are about fair value at present. Very well managed company with a great business model, strong balance sheet and excellent board.

Good hold for the long term but in the short term, I am not so sure.

seaweed · Nov 03, 2023, 05:52 PM

Well that makes a bit of a change, my two favorite companies up today TRA and HLG and I didn't have to buy any, someone else did. I notice about 2.40pm some buyers took out a lot of the 5.80 sellers of HLG. SP is holding up pretty good considering the lack of buyers. It looks like someone just wants to buy them at the selling price without putting in an order at a much lower price. I wonder if that is you Basil being tempted to the nice big div on the horizon. I hear there is a sharetrader meeting at the Oyster and Chop in a couple of weeks. Anybody on this site going.