HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[seaweed]

I have just posted on HLG turnover for Black Friday and the weekend on the other site....Sharetrader, so you can read it on there  

[KW]

Bit of good and bad news for retail fashion stocks in Australia.

"Falling clothes prices and an easing in supermarket cost pressures delivered an unexpectedly sharp fall in inflation last month.
Annual inflation fell to 4.9 per cent in October from 5.6 per cent in September, as price pressures for consumer goods moderate because of falling demand, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
The monthly consumer price indicator was lower than economists' expectations of a 5.2 per cent outcome and cements the market's view that the RBA board will almost certainly keep the cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent at its final meeting of the year on December 5."

[seaweed]

Sorry to drag poor old lonely HLG back to the surface. Wasn't that long ago it was the star golden goose but now just a distant memory in the shadow of TRA. The sp has been pushing back up in the last few weeks leading into the ex div 24c on Thursday 7/12/23 and AGM on 12/12/23 and not to mention another div 16 weeks later in April. Was talking to the glassy girl at Sylvia Park again today. She said it was very busy Thursday through to Sunday with the usual pre Christmas shopping and said it will carry on like that right up until Christmas. Good luck to anyone else still holding HLG and am looking forward to the update 12 December.     

[winner (n)]

Next Tuesday crunch day .....boring as ASM but they'll have a sales update

After 8 weeks new year down 8% on last year .....another couple months have past ....I wonder what X will be when they say sales year to date are X% v last year.

Seeweed anything to go by it'll be a big +ve number ......my guess -9%

[BlackPeter]

Sorry to drag poor old lonely HLG back to the surface. Wasn't that long ago it was the star golden goose but now just a distant memory in the shadow of TRA. The sp has been pushing back up in the last few weeks leading into the ex div 24c on Thursday 7/12/23 and AGM on 12/12/23 and not to mention another div 16 weeks later in April. Was talking to the glassy girl at Sylvia Park again today. She said it was very busy Thursday through to Sunday with the usual pre Christmas shopping and said it will carry on like that right up until Christmas. Good luck to anyone else still holding HLG and am looking forward to the update 12 December.   

I suppose there might be a reason people don't talk about them anymore. If you look at the numbers (and hope things don't deteriorate in a cost of living crisis, than they look currently fairly valued at best.

Backwards PE (10yrs) is 15, forward PE (3 years) is 12.6 and forward earnings CAGR is below the line of inflation (2.7%).

Not really exciting. For SP to appreciate, they would need an amazing Christmas season and something which gives markets confidence that this is not just a one-off.

I'd say the odds for SP to keep going down are better than the odds for SP rising ... and while I expect them to keep paying a good dividend around 6%, everybody needs to decide for themselves whether the divie is a good compensation for the principle lingering around or further dropping.

Have a look at what the SP did last Christmas: hanging around until mid January and than tanking. Not sure I expect this years Christmas business to be better, so why should the SP behave differently? Some people would say the past is the best indicator for the future ;

[winner (n)]

Hey BP ...Christmas 22 was good .....share price was over $7.00 ....last Christmas about $5.40

Like you I feel -X% will be quite high and we will see share price closer to $5 than $6 ...index inclusion don't count for much these days.

[Basil]

Unfortunately, I have to concur and see the chances of them heading down towards last year's support level of about $5.40 as being the most likely share price pathway in the near future.  Longer term this is a very well-managed company with excellent growth prospects for Glassons Au.  I'd like to be a holder again but at this point my perception is the risk-reward situation appears somewhat skewed toward risk.

Kind of miss being a holder though but there's no room for emotional attachment in my investment play-book any more.  If it gets down to $5.40 at some stage I'd really welcome the opportunity to consider it again.

[winner (n)]

I suppose our Tim will be re-elected as a Director again

Could get to 40 years service

Maybe been there too long ...these times are different they say

[Basil]

I'm sure his son James gives him a good tune-up about modern ways of doing things from time to time.

[BlackPeter]

Hey BP ...Christmas 22 was good .....share price was over $7.00 ....last Christmas about $5.40

Like you I feel -X% will be quite high and we will see share price closer to $5 than $6 ...index inclusion don't count for much these days.

Just had a look into marketscreener. For what its worth - analyst consensus for FY2024 is revenue down by something like 3% (410m down to 399m) and earnings down something like 25% (54cts down to 40 cts). Now - these are full year forecasts (not just the Christmas season), and analysts predictions are not more often right than anybody elses, but still - holders might want to consider to get some additional wintergear to get through this season :

[seaweed]

Next Tuesday crunch day .....boring as ASM but they'll have a sales update

After 8 weeks new year down 8% on last year .....another couple months have past ....I wonder what X will be when they say sales year to date are X% v last year.

Seeweed anything to go by it'll be a big +ve number ......my guess -9%

I don't think it will be a BIG +ve am just saying what the Glassy girl was saying about Singles day and Black Friday and leading up to Christmas. Whatever the results, HLG is paying me around 8% yld and a 24c ex div tomorrow and another div of approx 18c to 24c  16 weeks later in April. Banks only paying me a bit over 5% int at the moment.  I am lucky I picked up quite a lot of HLG last year in the 4.99 to 5.40c bracket and more above that price for the inclusion, so am still a bit over $35,000 in the green. But I am looking forward to the results whether good or bad, it will be interesting.   

[winner (n)]

See Directors on the give us more fees please bandwagon ...hard work these days being a Director

They want to increase the pool to $725,000

Biggest issue is they have 8 Directors .... 7 non-executive ones (Tim doesn't get paid)

Jeez this really is a old boys gravy train

I'd suggest they get rid of 2 of these directors and there would still be plenty to share around without increasing the fees pool

Suppose they've cut staff numbers .....maybe the Directors should lesd by example

Jeez only a $300m company ....and a pretty uncomplicated one at that

Context is that the profit on the first $9 million of sales goes to Directors.

I vote NO

6

[Waltzing]

Down ... down... down ...

took a while ..

[winner (n)]

Down ... down... down ...

took a while ..

Just a bit thst 'sell the rumour, buy the fact' stuff at moment

All will be fine after tomorrows update .....and punters start talking about peacocking again.

[Waltzing]

have you managed to half the director numbers yet Winner() ....

what do they actually do?