HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed that marketscreener just added a consensus tab to HLG. Probably in recognition of its new NZX50 status. Current analyst "consensus" is $5.50 and comes with a SELL recommendation.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/

Admittedly - so far it is only one single analyst they are reporting on (might be the only one looking into this company, i.e. - consensus easy to achieve), but still ... I am wondering whether this will motivate punters?

Oops - was this the SP just denting the MA200?

[Basil]

Forsyth Barr are the only ones covering it and are bearish.

[KW]

HLG is moving out of its big Chch store.  Apparently Hallensteins is moving to a new store while Glassons swaps with Mecca.  The Mecca store is one third the size of the current HLG store.  

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/christchurch-city-mall-shake-up-sees-store-spots-fill-up-as-shop-demand-spikes/WNFHSHXKONDZNBLOPNES74NZDU/

[Basil]

I think we're going to see quite a bit of store rationalisation in New Zealand from HLG in the years ahead as their leases come up for renewal.

[winner (n)]

Wonder what X will be in next announcement ........sales for the first 8 weeks of FY24 are up X%on same period last year

That'll give an indication if Forbars are unnecessary bearish

[Basil]

Sales last year in the first half were exceptionally strong.  I think X will be a mildly negative %.

[winner (n)]

 I think Tim Glasson owns that site where the HLG Chch superstore is ...rents shown as a related party transaction ...all completely arms length of course

Probably put the rent up too much HLG had to move out lol

[Red Baron]

I think Tim Glasson owns that site where the HLG Chch superstore is ...rents shown as a related party transaction ...all completely arms length of course

Probably put the rent up too much HLG had to move out lol

I do not theenk Tim Glasson vill mourn the departure of hees flagship female store een Christchurch:

'Tim Glasson' = 'Not miss gal'

RB

[seaweed]

Sales last year in the first half were exceptionally strong.  I think X will be a mildly negative %.

Hello Hello Hello what have we here then. Winners onto it on other forum, saying HLG profit up 25% and BIG div coming soon. Must be time to start buying back in Basil. Just imagine winning lotto woops I mean buying into HLG now Buying 100,000 and it goes up a dollar then they chuck you a 40c div. Wow not as good as lotto but I wouldn't laugh at $140,000 profit. LOL       

[Basil]

Welcome aboard seaweed.

[Waltzing]

thats almost ramping in a high inflationary environ .....  but with the cyclical swings in this stock history we could still 5 dollars... hears hoping ... HOPIUM...

[Basil]

Hello Hello Hello what have we here then. Winners onto it on other forum, saying HLG profit up 25% and BIG div coming soon. Must be time to start buying back in Basil. Just imagine winning lotto woops I mean buying into HLG now Buying 100,000 and it goes up a dollar then they chuck you a 40c div. Wow not as good as lotto but I wouldn't laugh at $140,000 profit. LOL       

Canny investors like you, me and Whome who backed the truck up late last year at around $5.20 and collected 48 cents in divvies in total in Dec 2022 and April 2023 and a gain of $1.65 on NZX 50 index inclusion to $6.85 made a total return of $2.13 per share if they sold on index inclusion.  It was a LOT of fun I am sure you agree but I think it's going to be a fairly long time between drinks on HLG before we can toast that sort of success again.  The fact is this recession is biting them reasonably hard at present and their index inclusion event is behind them.

On the other hand TRA appear to be weathering the current economic headwinds extremely well and their index inclusion event looks likely this December.  In addition, TRA's quarterly dividends are fully imputed and that make a big difference to what you get in your hand.

[seaweed]

Canny investors like you, me and Whome who backed the truck up late last year at around $5.20 and collected 48 cents in divvies in total in Dec 2022 and April 2023 and a gain of $1.65 on NZX 50 index inclusion to $6.85 made a total return of $2.13 per share if they sold on index inclusion.  It was a LOT of fun I am sure you agree but I think it's going to be a fairly long time between drinks on HLG before we can toast that sort of success again.  The fact is this recession is biting them reasonably hard at present and their index inclusion event is behind them.

On the other hand TRA appear to be weathering the current economic headwinds extremely well and their index inclusion event looks likely this December.  In addition, TRA's quarterly dividends are fully imputed and that make a big difference to what you get in your hand.

It all sounds good, but afraid I have missed the boat on TRA. Would of been good at $3.20. I got something else up my sleeve that is a lot more liquid but just waiting for right time to get in. In the mean time just enjoying the safety of 5.2% in the bank. But still have half a truck load of HLG in the green 27K. Some I bought about a year ago at 4.99 and more the next day at 5.20. Anyway, see what the full year results bring us next week, hopefully not too bad. Now all I have to do is figure how to logout.    

[Basil]

I would suggest you haven't missed the boat with TRA and its probably the most compelling value growth stock on the NZX.  See post #298 in the Turners thread for the highly attractive metrics, summarized below.  HLG a good company in the long term with Glassons Au growth but the incoming CEO has a truckload of work to do with getting the N.Z. operations of the group into a state where they make healthy profits such that HLG can one day fully impute its dividends again.

At this point summarizing the differences as I see them with HLG at $5.75 and TRA at $3.60.  HLG being materially affected by consumer headwinds on a forecast of about $25m for 42 cps in FY24 on a forward PE of 13.7 and gross yield with partial imputation credits of about 8%.

On the other hand TRA to post yet another record profit for FY24 despite very strong finance cost headwinds and the current economic slowdown on a forward PE in the low 9's and gross yield of close to 10%.  TRA's divvies will always be fully imputed and that makes a huge difference to the net amount you receive.

HLG used to pay out in the mid 40's cps fully imputed, sadly the prospect for full imputation credits going forward is pretty dismal in my view.  It's going to be many years before the growth in Glasson's Au overcomes the very modest level of imputation credits HLG is now able to pay such that the net dividend receivable in the future is back to where it used to be with mid 40's fully imputed dividends....and that's before we consider the fact that even when it does match it, over the years inflation has eaten a lot of the value away.

All that and TRA's NZX50 inclusion is ahead of it and HLG's index inclusion is behind it.  We saw what happened with the $1.40 share price spike when HLG was included in the NZX50 index.   That event is behind it now behind it and isn't going to happen again in the foreseeable future.   Not impossible that in percentage terms, (27% increase), the same thing could happen with TRA when it probably gets included in the NZX50 in December.

I still like HLG and holding long term makes a very good case for itself with their excellent management, strong balance sheet, good cash flow and excellent prospects for Glassons Au growth in the long term when normal economic conditions resume.  In the year ahead, or possibly the next 18-24 months I think the chances of share price appreciation from here are quite modest whereas the chance of a reversion to the low $5 range is very good.  In the meantime, if you are happy with 8% gross yield then I am sure the company will serve you well.  I'd be keen to jump back in a more meaningful way at the prices you mentioned above, especially at $5.00

That's how I see it mate.

[Waltzing]

YUP SP under valued and with the latest musings on the economy today in the local rags "where you going to go" ....

No money ? we have the deal for you!

HLG now going to rely on the AUSSI economy to not follow NZ...

would not have even noticed this stock if it was not for MR B...  its not a very green stock though.....