HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Dolcile]

Agree Basil.  I'm looking for an opportunity to get some more HLG - hoping that with some dry powder I get an opportunity over the next few days.

[Basil]

Consumer confidence hits its highest level in 2025  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/consumer-confidence-lifts-to-highest-level-in-2025/U6WTO4AXZFFCPIJLJAPKFUWKLQ/

Interesting and very relevant to HLG, there's quite a marked bifurcation in the confidence level's amongst various age groups.
Excerpt: Rendall said confidence amongst younger generations was "relatively buoyant" in comparison to older New Zealanders.
Confidence for those aged 18-29 lifted 14.4 points to 108.2 in the December quarter. For those aged 30-49, confidence rose 9.5 points to 101.
Those aged 50+ saw confidence increase by just 1.8 points to 90.8.

It would seem that HLG, with their target market of 13-30 year old's are best placed of any of the retailers to enjoy the improving economic conditions in 2026.  On the other  hand the boomers aged 50+ remain quite negative.  My theory behind this is its quite possibly a reflection of the negative wealth effect of seeing the value of their home decrease by 31% in inflation adjusted terms over the last 4 years and also the much lower investment  returns they are getting on their term deposits..

[Waltzing]

A PHD university Bio chemist i know did not even known the GFC add occurred.. many people in the country will not know anything about recession except that they dont get paid as much... they accept the system they live in...

Over 60's will probably be most negative as they understand where the world is heading....

But one wants the younger generation to have hope and if they just follow TIK TOK beach parties well....

Summer clothing sales and summer days at the beach!!!

what time of year are we at again???  It summer yet again in AUS and NZ Land of the long white cloud....

Expect even greater confidence to show up end of March early April...

GO Retail....

[777]

Trades in HLG today

9.69
1
19-Dec-2025 13:37
$9.83
728
19-Dec-2025 12:17
$9.83
1,000
19-Dec-2025 12:16
$9.65
1
19-Dec-2025 11:03
$9.65
1
19-Dec-2025 11:02
$9.63
330
19-Dec-2025 09:59


Yet investDirect show 9.63 in watchlists and portfolio.

[Basil]

That bizarre and just confirming mine is also showing in my portfolio at $9.63.  Can you please flick them a message and ask what's going on ?

[777]

Fixed within 60secs of emailing them.

[Basil]

Strangely its still showing in my portfolio at $9.63 

[777]

The HLG page is now correct but the portfolio/watchlists probably won't change until the next update is around 20 minutes I guess

[Basil]

Thanks 777 - good work.

[777]

Both last night and again tonight there has been a sell off at about 20c lower than what they have been trading at during the day. They are not so large amounts that they could not have been disposed at during the day.

[Basil]

Only explanation I can think of is that it was December quarter NZX50 rebalancing this week, especially today.  Quite a few stocks in the NZX50 had unusual share price movements especially in the last 15 minutes of the price match process today.    I revalue my listed portfolio weekly and went with VWAP prices today due to closing price volatility. 

[777]

You are no doubt correct and why it might explain my order for TWR at 1.99 got thru at 1.98 as part of the 100,000 odd at 5pm.

[Basil]

Free Trade Agreement with India
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/nz-strikes-comprehensive-free-trade-agreement-with-india/IJA57TACQZASFCX64S2EEDSSOU/

Labour are talking about supporting this despite N.Z. First opposition.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-nz-agrees-trade-deal-with-india/VQY7WW3DTZEYLCZPQXGP6I3CGA/

Warren Bell mentioned in the annual meeting that a FTA with India would be very helpful.
Haldenstein's in particular needs to sheet those future potential duty savings home with keeping prices the same and banking the extra margin.

Next dividend due mid April.

[lorraina]

From James's AGM presentation
Strengthening our supply chain remains a core priority. Our sourcing strategy continues to centre around
India, China, and Bangladesh, and we remain optimistic about the ongoing potential of these regions. If the
New Zealand government can secure an Indian Free Trade Agreement, that would of course be
advantageous, particularly as we continue to manage margins.

[Basil]

Quite right it was James that said that, thanks Lorriana.  Just out of curiosity, I see he also said shortly after that "This year we also made strong progress in our warehouse relocation project.  I want to acknowledge the work of Sam Glasson and Chris Reid, whose leadership has been much appreciated."

What do we know about Sam ?  Was he at the annual meeting ?  Did you get a chance to meet him and / or Tim and James ?  Any interesting anecdotes from discussions to share ?