HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[lorraina]

I missed talking to him this year,however I sat next to him at last year's agm.
Now I am not sure this was mentioned before,at or after the meeting,but I think I heard they send "Sam to talk to Aussie Malls' management".[tough talker].
I am not sure who to ask, but I would love HLG to have a video of their new distribution centre's stock picking system at next year's agm..
In hindsight I can not reconcile why 2 directors received a number of votes against them being reappointed to the board.
I have never spoken to Tim Glasson.

[Dolcile]

I walked past my local Hallenstien and Glassons stores today and they were filled with shoppers.

[Greekwatchdog]

I walked past my local Hallenstien and Glassons stores today and they were filled with shoppers.

You would hope so given its the day before Xmas

[Basil]

According to one news report yesterday we hit a 12 year low of nearly NZ$1.17 = A$1.00. I'm forecasting Australia to be approx 60% of group sales this year so the translation of those profits at better exchange rates could be a decent tailwind.

[Fiordland Moose]

According to one news report yesterday we hit a 12 year low of nearly NZ$1.17 = A$1.00. I'm forecasting Australia to be approx 60% of group sales this year so the translation of those profits at better exchange rates could be a decent tailwind.

And the AUD is recovering nicely against the USD which will help Glassons AU purchasing power / COGS.

[Jay]

I've got about a month or so before some funds are available to get some, just trickle along until then please!

[Basil]

Last 3 years the first half trading update and half year forecast was released on 28 Feb, 22 Feb and 17 Feb.

[winner (n)]

November Monthly Household Spending Indicator from ABS showed clothing spend up strongly in Oct and Nov

Seems Glassons sales were much higher .....good share gains methinks

Retail environment looking good over the Tasman

[Basil]

Just putting some more meat on the bones of that report Forsyth Barr are forecasting as follows:-

FY26 EPS 80.9 CPS, DPS 69.0 CPS 42% imputation level, gross yield 8.4% 7.8% PE 11.8 12.42
FY27 EPS 87.9 CPS  DPS 74.5 CPS 39% imputation level, gross yield 9.0% 8.3% PE 10.9 11.4
FY28 EPS 94.8 CPS  DPS 80.5 CPS 37% imputation level, gross yield 9.6% 8.9% PE 10.1 10.6

Price target is $11.75.  If we get there one year hence HLG will still be on a forward PE of less than 12 with 22% forecasted EPS growth this year.  I really do think the prospect of some multiple expansion is VERY good and definitely warranted with their excellent track record.  A forward PE similar to Turners could see HLG @ $14 this time next year.

James Glassons address at the annual meeting on Wednesday.  Words almost fail me.  Suffice to say I am exceptionally happy with the very prudent way he's very carefully managing and growing the business.

Disc: I bought a few more on the open at $9.93 today as I continue to believe the metrics are compelling at this level.   

I haven't revisited the metrics for a month so I thought it might be worth updating them for today's closing price of $10.05  Gross Yield and PE updated in blue detailed above.  Still Australasia's cheapest GARP stock in my opinion with a stellar track record of growth in the last 9 years and ~ 60% of sales forecast for FY26 are in Australia.  CAGR in EPS last 5 years 9%  Disc: My #1 investment position ~ 20% portfolio allocation.  Not concerned by the naysayers...been dealing with heaps of them for the last decade since the shares were $2.70.  For many years this company had no analyst coverage and I did my own analysis and still do.  For what its worth I am quite comfortable with Forsyth Barr's EPS but I think the dividends will be slightly lower than they're forecasting and am not concerned by that.

[Basil]

Jarden's picks for 2026 from Businessdesk.   Always a good thing to think ahead.  a FY27 PE of 11.4 and gross yield of 8.3% is incredible value for a company with a proven history of growing earnings like HLG has.  Excellent management, no debt and best of all, the company is run in a very careful and prudent way.  I make no secret of the fact that I also really admire how Summerset has been run over the years but the yield does not meet my criteria as a semi retiree investor investing for income and growth.  For those who don't need income I feel that's also a real opportunity for long term gains.

Jarden's picks  For those wanting to have a tilt at riding retail or cyclical stocks up as the economy improves, the broking houses have put out their picks for 2026.  Jarden released its tips for the year ahead and called out clothing retailer Hallenstein Glassons, the oft-maligned Fletcher Building, Vulcan Steel, Summerset, Mainfreight, SkyCity, Heartland Group and NZME – publisher of BusinessDesk.  The report said Hallenstein Glassons, Mainfreight and retirement village operator Summerset are "proven compounders" with value. At the same time, NZME and Vulcan Steel are well-managed with cycle exposure and have their performance linked to the NZ economy.  The rest are "previously problematic turnarounds" in Fletcher, SkyCity and Heartland.  This report called out some economic tailwinds that could boost the NZX.  Consumer spending is set to rise. Multiple sectors should drive gross Domestic Product growth, home prices could be pushed higher alongside increased lending, and inflation risk is low due to spare capacity in the economy.  The Jarden analysts recommend keeping an eye on the February reporting season, the housing market, and fiscal policy going into the election.

[Dolcile]

shush Basil...I'm trying to buy more on the cheap   

[Dolcile]

Managed to get another small parcel today at $8.70.  Maybe some more tomorrow with the TWR dividend. 

[lorraina]

Please do not do that.
Gave me high blood pressure...lol
$9.70. surely ?

[Dolcile]

Haha yes, sorry. $9.70 !

[winner (n)]

Popplewell back doing consultancy work fot HLG so no an Independent Director

Must be duw to get Di Humphries back again to add more spice to Glassons ... after all Di made Glassons what it is today