HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Pierre]

Divvie in the bank just now. Next one due in April.
Lovely!
SP edging up again. Will be $10+ today.

[777]

This in the Herald today


Hallenstein bucks the trend
Forsyth Barr noted clothing retailer Hallenstein Glassons (HLG) provided a strong 18-week 2026 trading update with sales up 13.8% on the prior year, accelerating from 12.9% in the seven-week trading update in September 2025.

Sales growth has been driven by continued strength in Australia, with contributions from new store openings, store expansions and refurbishments completed in the last year.

While the New Zealand operating backdrop remains challenging, both businesses are trading ahead of last year. With the key Christmas and summer trading periods ahead, management cautioned against extrapolating current momentum for the year ahead.

"We forecast 11% sales growth in FY26 led by continued strength in Glassons Australia," Forsyth Barr said.

The broker continued to view the "risk-reward" from Hallensteins as attractive and rated the stock as "outperform".

[winner (n)]

Stats NZ Csrd Spend for November

Apparel one of star segments - up 3.4% from October

Oz going well they say but I reckon NZ will make a meaningful contribution this financial year

Might need to revise my profit forecast lol

[lorraina]

Forbar;
Hallenstein Glassons (HLG) provided a strong 18-week FY26 trading update with sales +13.8% on the prior year, accelerating from +12.9% in the seven-week trading update in September 2025. Sales growth has been driven by continued strength in Australia, with contributions from new store openings, store expansions, and refurbishments completed in the last year. While the NZ operating backdrop remains challenging, both businesses are trading ahead of last year. With the key Christmas and summer trading periods ahead, management cautioned against extrapolating current momentum for the year ahead. We forecast c.11% sales growth in FY26 led by continued strength in Glassons Australia. Trading on a 12-month forward PE of c.11x, a partially imputed FY26 cash yield of 7.8%, and a solid runway for measured growth in Australia (c.13% EPS CAGR from FY25 to FY28), we continue to view the risk-reward as attractive. OUTPERFORM.

[Basil]

Just putting some more meat on the bones of that report Forsyth Barr are forecasting as follows:-

FY26 EPS 80.9 CPS, DPS 69.0 CPS 42% imputation level, gross yield 8.4% PE 11.8
FY27 EPS 87.9 CPS  DPS 74.5 CPS 39% imputation level, gross yield 9.0% PE 10.9
FY28 EPS 94.8 CPS  DPS 80.5 CPS 37% imputation level, gross yield 9.6% PE 10.1

Price target is $11.75.  If we get there one year hence HLG will still be on a forward PE of less than 12 with 22% forecasted EPS growth this year.  I really do think the prospect of some multiple expansion is VERY good and definitely warranted with their excellent track record.  A forward PE similar to Turners could see HLG @ $14 this time next year.

James Glassons address at the annual meeting on Wednesday.  Words almost fail me.  Suffice to say I am exceptionally happy with the very prudent way he's very carefully managing and growing the business.

Disc: I bought a few more on the open at $9.93 today as I continue to believe the metrics are compelling at this level.   

[BlackPeter]

Just had a look at HLG SP over the years. Maximas seem to appear roughly every 3 years (give or take one), and than it goes down again. Last big upturn ... and yes, it was a big one ... started in 2024.

So - statistically another year before things turn?

On the other hand ... SP rarely went up more than doubling its starting price from the previous baisse (though, after Covid it was nearly 3 times) ... and this (doubling) is sort of where we are now.

But hey, things are beautiful and exits are wide open, are they?

Anyway - well run company, very limited share market (and it wouldn't matter how often they split the share to change this), and selling fashion is cyclical.

Enjoy the ride ...

[Basil]

Glassons Au growth since 2017 has been a complete game changer for the company.  A good analogy is with Turners.  There was the no growth Turners before the brilliance of the Tina marketing campaign and the growth company after it.  I am happy to concede HLG was a no growth cyclical company with the vast majority of its sales in N.Z. up until 2016 and then along came the push for Glasson's Au growth and its been a complete game changer which continues to have an enormous runway for growth in the decades ahead.  Rebase the start point of your graph to when Glassons Au growth started in earnest in 2017 under James Glassons superb leadership and ignore the wild gyrations in the share prices Covid caused most companies and the picture tells a very different story, one of very satisfying share price appreciation with fluctuations over and under the steady uptrend.  I'm no TA expert so won't try and present a graph that illustrates my point.

The growth in Glassons Au sales from circa $40m 9 years ago to circa $300m in FY26 tells a very different fundamental version of events than you and your lizard friend are seeing but hey. each to their own way of looking at things, you guys stick with your way of looking at things and and I will stick to my way of interpreting the data which has proven to be extremely lucrative with HLG since late 2016.

[Left Field]

Here's one for HLG holders Basil...... HLG having a great run.

Nice to compare it against IFT over the last 10yrs. This just depicts SP gains..... throw in divvies and HLG  probably outperforming IFT.

[Basil]

Thanks Left Field, very interesting chart.  HLG has paid the following dividends sicne I bought in late 2016 at $2.70.
2017 31.5 cps
2018 44 cps
2019 44 cps
2020 39 cps
2021 38 cps
2022 42 cps
2023 48 cps
2024 50.5 cps
2025 55 cps
Total $3.92 in dividends and my original capital invested repaid nearly 1.5 times over already.

So yes, add 145% to that graph for HLG performance and it would have well and truly outperformed IFT over that timeframe.

In fact HLG has generated returns of $7.30 in capital gains and $3.92 in dividends, total $11.22, and is now worth more than 5 times your money over that 9 year timeframe.  Quite a lot more for those prudent investors who managed their risk well and who sold out just before Covid hit and bought back shortly thereafter for a lot lower price.    Its not just the deeply impressive track record that I find so satisfying, its the superb and very prudent management and the huge runway for growth ahead and all on compelling metrics that makes me so enthusiastic about the future.  A LOT of value creation to come for shareholders over the next 10 years.

[Dolcile]

My goodness what an end to the week.  90cps of capital growth in a couple of days plus a nice dividend. 

[Basil]

My goodness what an end to the week.  90cps of capital growth in a couple of days plus a nice dividend. 

10% gain in 2 days on those extra shares we bought at the open on Wednesday   And SP back to its all time high on the same day the dividend is paid, how cool is that !  Aside from the really compelling FA case, the TA looks really good too with it very quickly rebounding after going ex divvy to its all time high.  If I've learned one super important thing over the years its this.  When the fundamentals are truly compelling and you have 100% confidence in management and your thesis is supported by strong TA,...make sure you don't muck about with half sized measures in terms of the size of your stake. 

[Pierre]

A great week with HLG.
I'm happy with the (unrealised) capital gain and my travel agent will be very happy with the dividend. Italy, Greece and Croatia next year! (Thanks for the tip Basil, but Switzerland will have to wait till later.)

[Fiordland Moose]

A great week with HLG.
I'm happy with the (unrealised) capital gain and my travel agent will be very happy with the dividend. Italy, Greece and Croatia next year! (Thanks for the tip Basil, but Switzerland will have to wait till later.)

If you frequent Bali, but haven't been to Nusa Lembongan (the small island slightly adjacent to Denpasar) I highly recommend it. I first went there 20 years ago when I was travelling around Indo for a few months, and have been back approx every 5 years since. Love indo. Satu Lagi!

[winner (n)]

Just had a look at HLG SP over the years. Maximas seem to appear roughly every 3 years (give or take one), and than it goes down again. Last big upturn ... and yes, it was a big one ... started in 2024.

So - statistically another year before things turn?

On the other hand ... SP rarely went up more than doubling its starting price from the previous baisse (though, after Covid it was nearly 3 times) ... and this (doubling) is sort of where we are now.

But hey, things are beautiful and exits are wide open, are they?

Anyway - well run company, very limited share market (and it wouldn't matter how often they split the share to change this), and selling fashion is cyclical.

Enjoy the ride ...

Nice chart Peter

Maybe it is cyclical but I'd say it's cycling upwards exponentially

Sounds cool eh.

[Basil]

Nice chart Peter
Maybe it is cyclical but I'd say it's cycling upwards exponentially
Sounds cool eh.

I agree with your thoughts which are also in line with Forsyth Barr that FY26 EPS is going to be about 80-81 cps, an increase of approx 22% but you never know with the operational leverage they have, we might be surprised.  2018, (after James Glasson was appointed as Glassons Au CEO on 6 /10/2017), was a good example of how profit can grow a LOT faster than sales with excellent sales growth of 16.2% that translated into massive EPS growth of 58.4%  https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/annual-report/2018  We'll see, I'll be very content if they achieve 22% EPS growth and turnover exceeds $520m.  Rome wasn't built in a day. 

The latest update from Forbar has this headline
Hallenstein Glasson
Growing in Style.
I think that sums it up perfectly.