HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Basil]

Just a bit thst 'sell the rumour, buy the fact' stuff at moment

All will be fine after tomorrows update .....and punters start talking about peacocking again.

I need your help to undertake some valuable market research on this peacocking phenomenon.  Sorry mate, its hard work with no pay or reward 
https://www.glassons.com/nz/c/clothing/dresses?s=SORT_RELEVANCE&p=2

Annual meeting trading update should give a decent insight into how sales are holding up in this so called cost of living crisis.

[BlackPeter]

have you managed to half the director numbers yet Winner() ....

what do they actually do?

Peacocking,of course - why do you ask?

Last time I attended a HLG AGM (some years ago) all HLG managers and board members did wear HLG suits or dresses. Not sure I remember, whether they removed the price tags ;

[Waltzing]

Do the directors have extensive experiance in Retail in AUS?

after all im sure some of you will have family in AUS or soon to move there...

Its the future of NZ...

[Basil]

James Glasson has been over there for many years and has done a stellar job growing Glassons Au.

[BlackPeter]

Do the directors have extensive experiance in Retail in AUS?

after all im sure some of you will have family in AUS or soon to move there...

Its the future of NZ...

That's a bleak view. Don't forget - climate change will devastate Australia much earlier than it will devastate NZ ... and all the Ossies will soon move to NZ. This will be an amazing opportunity for HLG in NZ 

[Basil]

Sales down only 4.7% year to date, cost of doing business going up, (no surprises there), gross margin improving.  James Glasson's AGM speech.  http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/423339/409330.pdf

Comment.  I think they are weathering the current economic headwinds quite well. 

[seaweed]

Sales down only 4.7% year to date, cost of doing business going up, (no surprises there), gross margin improving.  James Glasson's AGM speech.  http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/423339/409330.pdf

Comment.  I think they are weathering the current economic headwinds quite well. 

I watched meeting  on line but kept nodding off to sleep. I got bits and pieces...75% imputation credits, test outlet in Western Australia and new store in Adelaide and heard the word 50 but said it wasn't 50 new stores but might have been 50 total in the future and the stores are bigger in the main bigger shopping malls. They maintaining the div. But they have better idea of sales after Christmas saying the next 3 weeks are their busiest. Correct me if I got any of that wrong, sounds like another 24c div in April.     

[BlackPeter]

Sales down only 4.7% year to date, cost of doing business going up, (no surprises there), gross margin improving.  James Glasson's AGM speech.  http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/423339/409330.pdf

Comment.  I think they are weathering the current economic headwinds quite well. 

Sounds though they expect a bit more "weathering" before the next period of happyness breaks out .

From the chairs speech:

cost rising, revenue dropping and than this:

... This focus should give us the best chance in sustaining profitability in the current financial year.  

I'd read that as "we hope we stay profitable this year, but we don't know yet."

Ouch.

[winner (n)]

Sales not going to bad so far ....first 8 weeks down 5.9% and since then only down about 3.8% giving year to date of down 4.7%

Sales down about $8m so far on last year so gross margin down less than $5m down on last year

Wonder what costs have goon up by?

Say $5m and then npat could be down by $7m in H1 to about $15m v $22m last year

[winner (n)]

Jeez after seeing Peter's post I've revised H1 npat forecast down to $10m ....like revenue dropping and costs rising leads to profits being down 50%

Don't think there will be losing money though

[winner (n)]

See nearly 12% voted against re-election of our Tim. Other directors up for re-election hardly had any no votes

Hope Tim gets the message and decides to retire properly .......and he doesn't need replacing

[winner (n)]

Seems BP spooked the market with his interpretation of Chairman's statement about this year being profitable or maybe not,

Share price heading low 500's

[Basil]

This focus should give us the best chance in sustaining profitability in the current financial year. 

I read the room very differently to you BP....that's a first eh ROFL
I read that as, that's our best chance at sustaining the profitability we had last year, (remembering last year was a record)

Sustain is a verb. 

sus·tain
[səˈsteɪn]
VERB
strengthen or support physically or mentally:

Replace that line he used with those synonyms. "That's our best chance of strengthening and supporting profitability"

I find it very strange 12% of people don't want Tim Glasson's decades of experience at board level especially with him being a 20% shareholder.  Quite bizarre really.  Shareholders are very fortunate indeed to have his services and those of his son James.

Disc: No position.

[BlackPeter]

I read the room very differently to you BP....that's a first eh ROFL
I read that as, that's our best chance at sustaining the profitability we had last year, (remembering last year was a record)

Sustain is a verb. 
Replace that line he used with those synonyms. "That's our best chance of strengthening and supporting profitability"

I find it very strange 12% of people don't want Tim Glasson's decades of experience at board level especially with him being a 20% shareholder.  Quite bizarre really.  Shareholders are very fortunate indeed to have his services and those of his son James.

Disc: No position.

Obviously - as most English words, the verb "sustain" can be widely interpreted.

"to sustain" means as well "to keep up" or "to keep going".

Maybe you should re-read the chairs speech with that in mind?

But just to avoid any doubt - I did not say that I think HLG might make losses this year. I just said that the chairs speech could be interpreted this way.

From a personal perspective I still expect them to have positive earnings, though I expect them to be significantly smaller than the year before.

And hey - he really made in his speech a lot of noices about uncertain times, didn't he? ... I wonder why.

[Basil]

Fair enough and yes I've already read both annual meeting speeches in full but they are always pretty conservative.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/consensus/

Only one analyst covering it and rates it a SELL.
Forecasted eps of 40, 45 and 51 cps for the next 3 years makes pretty good sense to me.
What's a fair multiple on next year's earnings?...maybe 12 ?   That suggests fair value is $5.40 around the base it built earlier this year.

I'm not currently a holder but I reckon it's not a bad place to invest for the long term...just when to reinvest and at what price...those are the real questions.  Hmmm