HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

Basil · Dec 29, 2023, 04:30 PM

Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 29, 2023, 04:05 PMGood finish to day recovering to $5.20

Thought going to 5 bucks at one stage ....maybe early in New Year .....withdrew my buy in case it did a seeweed and got hit while out ......and went down further

Bought back some Turners today on 10.7 times forecast FY25 earnings.
Just a thought for 2024. Put that same multiple on HLG which is also a well-managed company based on Forsyth Barr's 39 cps gives an indication of where HLG would also be a good buy. Unfortunately, the math's suggests that's more than a dollar south of where it closed today, $4.17

and their FY25 doesn't start until August 2024. Quick glance at the chart since index inclusion is not a pretty picture either. Keeping my fingers well away from the buy button on this one while the downtrend remains intact.

winner (n) · Dec 29, 2023, 04:51 PM

Basil said ... Quick glance at the chart since index inclusion is not a pretty picture

Jeez, hadn't really noticed how bad it is .....down 25% from highs ....and heading sub 5 bucks

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Basil · Dec 29, 2023, 05:29 PM

Pretty ugly, especially the last month. Started December @ $6.05 and ended down 85 cents so those buying for the 24 cent divvy have found out that was not a very good idea !

winner (n) · Dec 29, 2023, 06:00 PM

F24 earnings (and therefore divie) going to disappoint the market per se ...ramifications and impact on share price anybody's guess

Basil · Dec 29, 2023, 06:43 PM

I think you're going to be dead right and it won't be pretty. HLG won't report FY24 results until the last few days of Sept 2024 so in terms of portfolio allocation its almost a case of being persona non grata until at least then. Buying for the April divvy looks likely to be as "successful" a strategy as buying for the December one was. (one step forward and three or four steps back).

I agree it probably is worth $5.40 in the medium term that Forsyth Barr think but no saying it won't go 20-30% south of there first, in the next year or so as a result of the ongoing recession. Putting Turners FY25 forward metrics on this and arriving at $4.17 was a very sobering reality check for me. Who's to say which is the better managed company? Both well managed, but Todd has 16 or so years of experience at Turners and we have a new CEO for Hollensteins Glassons so who knows how the N.Z. operations of the business will go in the future? That said, James Glasson does a fabulous job with Glassons Au, there's no disputing that and they have a strong balance sheet and best of class stock turn. It's going to be an interesting 2024 for HLG. I'll be watching closely from the sidelines for now.

Waltzing · Jan 03, 2024, 02:50 PM

under 5 soon ?

winner (n) · Jan 04, 2024, 08:02 AM

Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 03, 2024, 02:50 PMunder 5 soon ?

Seeweed not going to let that happen

Waltzing · Jan 04, 2024, 02:17 PM

Is that like moment in the head lights ?

and its not so KIA but RK.....

someone apparently bought at 2.75 ... and must have done well i suppose that was the resident Master of the Market...

KW · Jan 04, 2024, 02:43 PM

My concern would be that HLG has broken a level ($5.30) that should have offered up support (see my Momentum Investing thread for discussion on resistance and support levels). So in the absence of positive surprises, the momentum now is likely to be down. I would also be wary of the upcoming Death Cross (where the 50 day MA goes below the 200 day MA).

I'd also be concerned about the fact that it failed to catch the Santa Rally over the last 2 months, whereas other retailers like UNI, PMV and LOV did, indicating that this is not a retailer problem but a HLG problem.

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Waltzing · Jan 04, 2024, 03:58 PM

Yes and its an AUSSI market stock ... still its lost that left to right before and offered some very good buying in the past... Its not the first time this has happened.

Some stocks just have repeat patterns built into them...

Waltzing · Jan 05, 2024, 11:01 AM

How about 4.5 by July next year...

winner (n) · Jan 05, 2024, 12:31 PM

Yahoo says 50MA at 577 is below 200MA at 590

Already had that Death Cross?io

Basil · Jan 05, 2024, 12:45 PM

I don't think there's any definitive answer to be stated right at this point at the start of a new year as to where the bottom might be. Just follow the chart and wait for a bottoming process to appear and a new uptrend to start forming, (no sign of that happening at this stage). Happy to watch closely from the sidelines for now.

Waltzing · Jan 05, 2024, 01:57 PM

a portfolio holding at NOV 2006 would now be under water .....

it looks like on the chart its breaking down below 5 if you draw the pastel line from 2019...

if you pastel from 2016 its almost on the line of support.

seaweed · Jan 08, 2024, 10:21 AM

Quote from: KW on Jan 04, 2024, 02:43 PMMy concern would be that HLG has broken a level ($5.30) that should have offered up support (see my Momentum Investing thread for discussion on resistance and support levels). So in the absence of positive surprises, the momentum now is likely to be down. I would also be wary of the upcoming Death Cross (where the 50 day MA goes below the 200 day MA).

I'd also be concerned about the fact that it failed to catch the Santa Rally over the last 2 months, whereas other retailers like UNI, PMV and LOV did, indicating that this is not a retailer problem but a HLG problem.

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Hi KW. Hope you had a good Christmas and New year. I am interested in the HLG Santa Rally. Could you please send me the link or information on this Santa Rally. Thank you in advance seaweed.