RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Left Field]

SP being hammered so far today on top of today's downgrade.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395951

"Preliminary management financial results for the half year ending 30 June 2022 indicate that NPAT for the period will be between $14 million and $16 million (half year 2021 NPAT was $34.5m)."

GLH.

[winner (n)]

Shows what inflation can do to profits

Sales up 8.4% ....pretty good in circumstances

Costs/Expenses up 10% .... they say inflation etc

Means NPAT down 30% (this years profit margin 2.6% v 4.2% v pcp

[winner (n)]

Be interesting how far RBD share price will fall

Been drifting down since it reached $16 a year ago --- down 37%

I was quite sad a few month ago when I sold the shares I had had for 13 years - but sub $1 to $14 was a pretty good trade .....maybe if it goes back to $7 like it did in that panic selling when covid hit I might be back

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[Left Field]

Thanks for sharing Winner. Looks like you read the TA signals as RBD entered into 'death cross' territory round the $14.00 mark? Well done.

Lot's of headwinds still facing RBD's margins and revenue growth IMO.

[Auto Rower]

Hi winner are you looking to get back in to rbd & do you think its going lower still ,or possibly awaiting the half year results to make any decisions.
 They do seem to find 9 $ as a big resistance point

[blackie]

Thanks for sharing Winner. Looks like you read the TA signals as RBD entered into 'death cross' territory round the $14.00 mark? Well done.

Lot's of headwinds still facing RBD's margins and revenue growth IMO.

forgive my ignorance as I am only learning, but what signals are you referring to? if a death cross is a

"technical indicator which occurs when a security's short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses from above to below a long-term moving average (e.g., 200-day)."

then can I ask what moving averages settings were you using that indicated RBD moving into death cross territory around the $14 mark?

that is if the signals that you were referring to were in regard to moving averages.
thanks in advance

[winner (n)]

Hi winner are you looking to get back in to rbd & do you think its going lower still ,or possibly awaiting the half year results to make any decisions.
 They do seem to find 9 $ as a big resistance point

RBD for most of the 13 years I held was essentially a hold collecting bigger and bigger dividends and watching the share price go up most years. Like let winners run.

Whenever I thought of buying more I'd ask myself if you didn't hold would you buy today .....answer was no ...they are not cheap. That's how I feel even now ....not an attractive buy. Fundamentally over priced imo with headwinds and a share price going down (and that's why I sold a few months ago)

[Fiordland Moose]

RBD for most of the 13 years I held was essentially a hold collecting bigger and bigger dividends and watching the share price go up most years. Like let winners run.

Whenever I thought of buying more I'd ask myself if you didn't hold would you buy today .....answer was no ...they are not cheap. That's how I feel even now ....not an attractive buy. Fundamentally over priced imo with headwinds and a share price going down (and that's why I sold a few months ago)

I havent fully understood RBD's appeal for a few years now.

The business has gone through a number of re ratings - I dont have it to hand, but its consensus forward EV/EBITDA has periodically held steady for years and been rerated up in about 4 or 5 episodes since the early 2000s. It went something like 3.5x in early 2000s, 4.5x 09 to 2012, 7x 12 to 16, 9.5x up to its partial buyout in 2019 for 13x ebitda. People forget what a lowly position it once held - when I was working professionally we were once approached in ~2005 by an asian PE firm re a joint buyout. It was trading in ~3-4x ebitda and got no where (never real And avian flu issues du jour). Today at ~ 8x but had been much, much higher without yield to show for it. It did serve as a platform to consolidate sub franchises globally which they have executed magnificently on. KFC has been the growth engine of the business, a beast in NZ, but now tapped out in NZ and at the end of a day beholden to master franchisers who own the IP., command huge fees, and impose restrictive covenants. None the less would have more coins in the piggy bank had I invested many hears ago rather than critique from the sidelines. It is a bit of a rarity internationally, very few franchisee companies have achieved the success RBD had, but the fins are hard and yield never been great.

[KW]

Anecdotally, I find KFC to be very expensive now.  The last time I bought a meal there it cost me over $20 (just for me), and I havent been back since.  We are being ripped off in NZ as well, a burger meal that costs over $16 here in NZ costs $11 in Australia. 

[BlackPeter]

Anecdotally, I find KFC to be very expensive now.  The last time I bought a meal there it cost me over $20 (just for me), and I havent been back since.  We are being ripped off in NZ as well, a burger meal that costs over $16 here in NZ costs $11 in Australia. 

Funny, how price and quality of the share correlates with the product, isn't it?

[Auto Rower]

That's a good ethos I do that also winner ,most of the time ! .
Certainly broke that 9 bucks yesterday I must of give it the kiss of sp death, wish I could do that on a regular basis .
On the cost of the chicken boxes kw I had a look as I am not a regular in fact the opposite 3 piece box in aus 11.95 = nz 13 .32 in The nz that same box is 14.39 so a bit more of a cost for sure but the family feast 10 pieces is the same price making it cheaper in the N Z due to the exchange rate .
Don't really want to dwell on looking at k f c meals this time in the morning or any other time if truth be known but suffice to say they are not going out of fashion here in the N  Z that is as yet.

[arekaywhy]

wow, I hadn't looked at this one for a long time and now it looks appealing on the surface...it isn't like they aren't perpetually busy (from direct observation), and the share price is massively down. 

Dammit, now I'm hungry for the dirty bird

[Left Field]

forgive my ignorance as I am only learning, but what signals are you referring to? if a death cross is a

"technical indicator which occurs when a security's short-term moving average (e.g., 50-day) crosses from above to below a long-term moving average (e.g., 200-day)."

then can I ask what moving averages settings were you using that indicated RBD moving into death cross territory around the $14 mark?

that is if the signals that you were referring to were in regard to moving averages.
thanks in advance

Apologies Blakie..... I only just read/noticed your past query.

FWIW - The crossing of the 30 day MA and the 90 day MA is my preferred TA indicator for the NZX for both 'Death Cross' (downside) and 'Golden Cross' (upside.)   JMHO.

[winner (n)]

Since my interest in RBD had waned I've not been keeping a close on it for the last few months

I have noticed the consistent downtrend in the share price from about 16 bucks to 8 bucks ...ouch

But I hadn't noticed that its still trading on a PE of about 30 forecast F23 earnings

That is very high ....and I wonder if a 5% dividend yield is enough to stop the share price falling further

Might need to keep a closer eye on this

[blackie]

Apologies Blakie..... I only just read/noticed your past query.

FWIW - The crossing of the 30 day MA and the 90 day MA is my preferred TA indicator for the NZX for both 'Death Cross' (downside) and 'Golden Cross' (upside.)   JMHO.

thanks for that