RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Gerald]

Interesting to compare 2016 RBD to 2022 RBD. Profit up by ~$24m (although heading down now), however increase in share capital of ~$125m and an extra ~$240m of debt.

So an additional ~$360m of capital invested has created ~$24m extra profit. Doesn't seem a very good ROIC or whatever the finance guys use.

Tangible book value now deeply negative versus then due to all the acquisitions, and less capacity to make big acquisitions to carry on the growth narrative - maybe why the big cheeses jumped ship.

Margins also abit lower which should be a concern, given how expensive fast food has become.

Should be worth something - not sure what is it. Never know, could get a minority buyout or some such thing.

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[BlackPeter]

I am sure the share is worth "something" ... as long as they don't make public how many of their customers they kill with their unhealthy food.

I suspect however as well that this "something" is below the current SP.

Here are a couple of hints:
   10 times 2022 forecast EPS would be $2.76 per share.
   Grahams formula returns $7.51 per share
          (but is normally ways too optimistic, particularly for a fat & salty food merchant)
   Shareclarity offers a DCF "value" of $7.36 per share.

If I would be interested in trading fatty food, I probably would review an entry decision below $5 ...

[Auto Rower]

Well its heading there Peter  towards  Grahams formula a really nice downtrend continuing, $ 7.81 today for a wee while we would all be queued up anywhere near 5 $ 

[KW]

Australian CKF results not boding well for RBD.  Taco Bell underperforming.
"In HY23, Collins Foods opened four new drive-thru [Taco Bell] restaurants (two in Melbourne and two in Perth), bringing total
restaurant numbers to 13 in Queensland, eight in Victoria and three in Western Australia. To ensure the long-term
strength of the brand and to generate the required return on investment, new restaurant builds beyond the
five-six sites already committed to have been paused. In addition, a non-cash impairment of $11.9 million, after
tax, was incurred in relation to eight underperforming restaurants.
"We are refining every element of the business, from marketing and media spend to portioning and product
quality, to ensure we meet and exceed customer expectations. We have paused new restaurant builds, other
than the five-six already committed, to enable us to work with Yum! to regain traction on sales before further
recommencing the rollout and scaling the brand."

[Auto Rower]

 I had a few hours to spare yesterday so as part of my education visited the taco bell by the airport at chch  .
 I must say it was disappointing ,food was not good ,service poor & the staff outnumbered the customers three to one ! crikey .
 I know collins foods in Aus is being dragged down by taco belle & I reckon r b d will be the same not all fast foods are a gold mine like maccas & kfc

[Mousehold]

I had a few hours to spare yesterday so as part of my education visited the taco bell by the airport at chch  .
 I must say it was disappointing ,food was not good ,service poor & the staff outnumbered the customers three to one ! crikey .
 I know collins foods in Aus is being dragged down by taco belle & I reckon r b d will be the same not all fast foods are a gold mine like maccas & kfc

I think the correct term is thank you for taking one for the team!

[winner (n)]

How's Carls going these days ...or have they quit them

[Auto Rower]

Carls still doing reasonable as an up market burger establishment better thought of than burger fuel & pizza hut well established .
 I must add as well I took one for the team in L A with Tacos and it was a much better experience not something I would be doing regular  but as an experience /research exercise it passed as  junk food that would appeal in the right circumstances and to connoisseur's of such .
 I do believe they had to alter the menus slightly and the sizes to get tacos in to n z this in my opinion will be its downfall as a poor imitation of the real deal.
 As far as junk food goes the end user will have the final say,& it will take a lot to move them off the staples kfc & maccas 

[Ferg]

Since my interest in RBD had waned I've not been keeping a close on it for the last few months

I have noticed the consistent downtrend in the share price from about 16 bucks to 8 bucks ...ouch

But I hadn't noticed that its still trading on a PE of about 30 forecast F23 earnings

That is very high ....and I wonder if a 5% dividend yield is enough to stop the share price falling further

Might need to keep a closer eye on this

Now trading under $6.  "Are we there yet"?

6/8x30 ~ still on a P/E of around 20.  Maybe we aren't there yet.

[Left Field]

Now trading under $6.  "Are we there yet"?
6/8x30 ~ still on a P/E of around 20.  Maybe we aren't there yet.

Looking to go cheaper based on this update.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415852

[Left Field]

Latest 1H FY23 update from RBD..... (no worries.......smaller helpings ("re-engineering")  and more digital spam ("improved customer access,")  will get it sorted.)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417156

"Continued investment into our digital platforms is also planned to provide improved customer access and attract new customers, alongside menu re-engineering and an enhanced marketing and promotions programmes."

[Ferg]

Trading well under $5.

"Are we there yet?".

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBD.NZ?p=RBD.NZ&.tsrc=fin-srch

Disclosure: not / never held; morbidly curious.

[Shareguy]

With all their cost issues new competition is coming

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/south-korean-chain-nene-chicken-to-open-first-new-zealand-store-next-month/HZ4SYIBTT5EGBFN6MQLQWUHV4Q/

Never held, but I find it an interesting gauge on the economy.

[entrep]

Anecdotally, Korean fried chicken is pretty gross, at least the ones I've tried. Outside too hard and inside too dry.

[Ferg]

Are we there yet?  Now trading under $4.

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RBD.NZ/chart?p=RBD.NZ

Trading well under $5.

"Are we there yet?".